As I understand it, the legal theory behind the FBI investigation is that the agents and the shoe companies, in cahoots with assistant and now head coaches, conspired to defraud the universities by compromising their current and future players, thereby subjecting them to NCAA penalties and loss of revenue (like the $600K Louisville now has to give back after the NCAA nailed them in Strippergate).
I haven’t followed the basketball case very closely, but it would likely depend on the intent behind the payment, baked. Given the paper trail that normally goes with these investigations, the intent could be inferred. If the intended payment was made and another is defrauded as a consequence, as mentioned by Swine, potential criminal liability would attach. The same with paying a kid to shave points. I suspect part of the problem for some of these guys would involve an effort to cover up their past deeds. Start lying to the feds and the hammer will drop.
I don’t think much is going to happen to them from the NCAA perspective, the NCAA is soft these days. And most of those violations while technically cheating, are ridiculous, like a lunch here and there. Kentucky’s alleged violations are pretty small. If the players are interviewed, and they will be, and they lie about it to the FBI, then they will be in real trouble.
The NCAA needs tough leadership like the NFL has, the inmates are running the prison. If someone wants to be a pro athlete, then their should be no age limit, if they think they can make the jump straight to the NFL or NBA out of high school, like Lebron and Isaiah Thomas did, then they should be allowed to. But if they choose to play college basketball, then they need to not cheat and play by the rules.
If this was just one or a couple of schools, I think this would be swept under the rug and everyone moves on.
But since it’s a bunch of major schools and the FBI being involved, I don’t the NCAA can just slap everyone on the wrist this time. At least one major power is going to have to bite the bullet on this.
Also the FBI will turn over cash accepted to the IRS who will want their piece of the pie. I’ll betting none reported it on their taxes and that puts those who accepted cash in more trouble.