I would definitely hope for better but thank Anderson for promoting and helping get a good non-con scheduled.
In my honest opinion to miss the tourney we would have to finish with 18 wins. That would make our last 12 games 5-7, conference record 7-11. Anything better and we have a decent resume, under you scenario
20-11, 37 RPI, 33 SOS, 9-9 conference, 5-9 road/neutral court, last 12 games 7-5. Regardless of what everyone believes, those ARE tourney numbers
Agreed, by the numbers that is. If we finish the regular season with only 18 wins, then we would have to make it to the semis of the SEC tournament to even be considered, and that might be a stretch.
He’s back, way to go “General”, I guess I should watch the game again just to make sure that we didn’t in fact win this game based on how we outplayed LSU today in basically every phase of the game besides 3 point baskets made.
I’m not as optimistic as you are with regard to the remaining schedule, While we are trending downward, Alabama, Texas A&M, Missouri, are trending upward and Auburn which you predicted earlier this season would fall back to the middle of the pact in the SEC are poised to possibly win it outright and Kentucky although struggling is still Kentucky and much more talented than we are.
So, I don’t see how this Hogs team will be able to finish any better than 4-4 the rest of the way putting them at 8-10 in the SEC with a poor overall record against those teams that we would have played which boosts the BPI.
An 8-10 conference record will put us in a pressure situation heading into the SEC Tournament and a poor showing their would leave us out of the Big Dance.
I would love to see them prove me wrong, but I haven’t seen anything unlike you that makes me believe they will. They simply don’t have the roster to get it done once again, not enough talent, size, speed, lock down defenders, glass eaters and poor free throw shooting as a team, other than those deficiencies there a great team.
Go Hogs!
Which part of what I said was wrong? You can moan and thumb your nose at me because you don’t like me all day long, but what part of what I said was wrong?
I’m not an optimist, I’m a realist, hence why I most post about trends and numbers, but my fandom and just my personality tends to be glass half full unless said numbers and trends show otherwise. Bama and Mizzou aren’t trending up. Mizzou had one game at home and Bama has been up and down the last two weeks. A&M is finally healthy and no suspensions. And if you remember predictions so well, you might remember where I said at the beginning of the season that Auburn would be way better than 13th in the SEC, I didn’t see 1st in conference, but top 5 sure. And if you actually read my comment on the game with any comprehension, you would see that 4-4 is very possible.
Get it done once again? Where have you been the last few years?
Following up on the conversation with GH and Baked … the numbers … after all of saturday’s games … has Arkansas sitting at 40 … (insert an ‘i said that would happen’ here :-). But to the conversation, I agree there’s the opportunity … get to 20 wins and .500 in the SEC (stay in the top 8) and there is the opportunity to have Committee consideration.
To my concern however is where this is a year of ALOT of power conference .500 teams, the Arkansas record will not match up against others. We’ve been blow out several times - some against teams competing for those 8-12 seed at-large bids. Losses against non-Dance teams (LSU, MSU, maybe Houston) will haunt the Hogs. No wins so far against top tier teams given drops by NC, Minnesota, UCONN. So … where we no longer have the power RPI that just drops us into a 4-8 seed, we have to compete by comparsion with a dozen other teams. I doubt we win those discussions given the blow out losses.
One plus is having to play KY, Auburn, Missouri, and Alabama in the last three weeks - win those four and the RPI can get to a firm high-20s. 20 wins and an RPI in the 20s is a dance. Anything lower than 20 wins or a 20-ish RPI … we don’t match up well (right now).
To the optimism … I just gotta say … I don’t see it. If you’ve watched these guys play over the past four weeks, there is no ‘there’ there. They are offensively limited with only two gamers (Barford, Macon), the offensive has no idea how to involve Gafford, and the rest of that team has not proven it has the game to compete for 40 minutes. While they could probably defend me and the General … but apparently not many others. Say, General … you got a jump shot?
I can see a mini-streak, but based only on athleticism and SEC-officials home-court cooking (like many have fairly observed is often biased). I keep waking for the wake up call but I fear what we see is … what we are.
Last thought … opinions anyone? If the Hogs lose their invite to the Dance, what are the chances all those seniors don’t care for an NIT bid?
VR/
Most of this is fairly accurate. My only correction is our quality wins vs. losses in your second paragraph. The ONLY team we’ve lost to that is so far that is outside looking in for the tourney is LSU. Every other team by RPI and BPI is either in or on the bubble. Plus, the committee doesn’t look at how bad you lost to a team, they look at W/L and how good the team was you beat. We still have top 20 wins over Tennessee and Oklahoma and tourney/bubble wins over Georgia and Missouri. Plus, we’ve got 9 wins over RPI 100 teams. That carries a lot of weight. BUT… if we can’t correct the ship these next 8 games to at least a 5-3 record, then we will have to worry about the SEC tourney to try to get in. Not saying we can’t win in the SEC tourney to secure our spot, but I’d like for that to be secure before and only have to worry in the SEC tourney about advancing our seeding.
And if our Seniors don’t want to play the NIT if we only go that far, then strip them of their jersey’s and send them packing. I SERIOUSLY doubt that would happen, no matter the disappointment.
Distant, I don’t know if you’ve seen the other thread that was discussing Lunardi and Palm, but I posted Shelby Mast. I personally think Mast has a better predictor for the tourney than Lunardi or Palm, because both of those guys wait until the beginning of the Selection Sunday Show (after the committee comes out of the room) to do their final update. Mast doesn’t and he is pretty accurate.
Anyway, he released his new bracketology this morning. LSU’s win yesterday put them in, yes IN, the field. As of now he has 9 SEC teams IN, tied with the ACC, he also has Mistake, Georgia, and Houston as bubble teams (but they need a little work). He also now has Bucknell in the Dance (our second game of the year). We have a legitimate shot.
Now, we’ve lost 1 (ONE) home game all year, we have 5 left. I don’t see us losing 5 home games like some others on here. Honestly, I see us winning all five. USCe, and Vandy aren’t Giant Killers, aTm and KY have road issues, just like everyone else. We will be UP for KY, and it’s a very realistic scenario that we need to beat AUB and they’ll have already clinched the SEC (Mast currently has them as a 1 seed). So, they could really have a game, like we have, where they aren’t that interested in winning, plus it’s SR Day, our guys want to go out winners. Now, as for the three road games, when everyone else was screaming our best shot was LSU, I said I think it’s Ole Piss. I also think we can take Missery at Columbia. The only FOR SURE loss I see is Bama, but others said they think we are a matchup problem for Bama, I think they’re a matchup problem for us, but we will see.
Having said that, I really believe we win our next 5. That gets us to 20, with SR Day vs AUB on the horizon. I know many disagree, but that’s my opinion, we will see if I’m right.
Here is his bracketology:
Baked Hog,
When you take a good look at that bracket what it reveals is that currently he has the Hogs in as an 11 seed the same seed as LSU in a play in game.
Everyone else on our remaining schedule that he has in the field are seed higher than the Hogs starting with Texas A&M-10, Missouri-8, Alabama-6, Kentucky-4, Auburn-1.
What this tells me is that teams like Alabama, Missouri and Texas A&M wouldn’t be Seeded as he has them by losing to us at this time of the season.
I think by the way this bracket has the Hogs seeded this guy is predicting a 4-4 finish to our regular season putting us at 8-10 in conference, 19-12 overall and going at least 1-1 at the SEC Tournament which would get us to 20-13.
So, we find ourselves for very little room for error in the next two home games, if we happen to drop one of these games then the path for us gets much more difficult.
When your put in as an 11 seed then your just one seed line above the Automatic bids to Conference Tournament Champs from the mid majors and below.
More loses by North Carolina and Oklahoma will chip away at our SOS numbers and I expect them both to lose at least 3 or 4 more games before selection day.
Honestly, can anyone say that we would be talking about the Hogs barely getting in the NCAA Tournament this year after all of the hope, hype and playing with a chip on their shoulders? I think not!
Go Hogs!
“What this tells me is that teams like Alabama, Missouri and Texas A&M wouldn’t be Seeded as he has them by losing to us at this time of the season.”
I’m not baked, but I’m not sure what you mean by this sentence.
Are you saying they wouldn’t be seeded this high, if Lunardi thought they would lose to Arkansas? If so, that’s not how these bracket predictions work.
What I mean is that in this bracket we are the Eight seed of Nine seeded teams from the SEC and teams like Alabama-6, Missouri-8, Texas A&M-10, Kentucky-4 and Auburn-1 it’s very difficult to see those seeded 1-8 based on their current records losing to the Hogs at this time of the year. Texas A&M could probably lose to us on the road and still get that 10 seed based on their split wit us and their SOS. However, Bama and Missouri Aren’t awarded 6 and 8 seeds after losing to the Hogs at home this late in the season after crunching each of their SOS numbers.
What is so sad is the fact that we are basically trying to figure out how are Hogs are going to be able to secure a 10-12 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
OMG, how I long for the for the nationally respected program we had under Sutton and Richardson!
I hope it happens under Coach Anderson, but I’m not sure he can recruit and sign a roster that can truly succeed on a regular basis like the better programs in the nation can do.
Go Hogs!
Honestly, I’ve said all year, that everyone was putting to much on 6 SR’s. I think next year will be a better year. Talent will help.
As others have said, some of those team you mentioned started conference play with home games against the lower end of the standings. It’s getting harder for them. I think some on here are just hoping we lose, so they can bash Mike. I don’t know if that’s what you’re doing, but it sure seems like it.
I understand frustration from what was a perception we had the best team in the league because of leadership. As I said, I just think everyone made a mistake about 6 SR’s. Having said that, I still think we win the majority of our remaining games, but as I said I won’t guarantee, will you guarantee we lose?
Baked Hog,
I’m not a Coach Anderson hater at all, and if you pay attention to my posts I’ve never been one to say let’s get rid of him, or, he gets out coached all of the time.
He’s our coach and I like him as a coach and person, but his job is to build the roster for the style of basketball that he has committed his entire career.
He has the blueprint of what that roster looks like when it succeeds, so he needs to go and get those type of players in order to have success.
So, thus far in his tenure he has not assembled that roster and has had done a poor job in recruiting outside of Portis and Macon and Hannah’s who are kids that had always dreamed of being Razorbacks Barford, Kingsley and Quales are the best players we can point to that we’re real impact players on their particular team.
A far cry from the impact players that I could name during the Sutton and Nolan era’s. He hasn’t been able to build a wall around the state and convince the states best players to come and play for him, can’t imagine that happened to often with Sutton or Nolan.
Recruiting has to improve because that’s the key to winning, if it does then he’ll be our coach for many years to come, but if it doesn’t he won’t that’s just business.
Go Hogs!
And if you’ve seen my posts, you’ll see, I’ve said all year, I expect next years team to be better. We have guys for Mike’s system. Some of the guys that left (pro’s or transfers) have affected what we have ended up with. If Babb and Whitt wouldn’t have left, I don’t believe Jones or Gabe would be on our team right now. I also think Garland is making a significant difference in this team by not being able to play. Those three make a huge difference.
Now, I’ve also looked up Nolan’s last seven years vs Mike’s seven years at AR. Someone brought it up. After yesterday they have both coached 224 games in those seven years, Nolan 137-87, Mike 143-81. Mike has actually won more games. If Mike would have took over when Stan Heath did, we would have had 4/5 tourney’s with that record. It shows how far we really fell between Heath and Pel.
Baked Hog,
It’s not fair to compare any records from Nolan’s post Championship year and the National runner up season in 1995. Nolan had climbed the Coaching and program building ladder at that point and he was I believe emotionally drained from the lifelong battle of proving himself over and over again to those who didn’t buy in to his style of basketball being able to win a National Championship even though he had already proven it in High School in West Texas, JUCO National Championship and a NIT Championship at Tulsa.
You would be better off if you looked at how he built the program to succeed from the time he took the job in his first seven years and compare that to what Coach Anderson has been able to build in his first seven years since being the Head Hog.
It’s not as if Mike doesn’t know what it takes because he was right there for the entire runwith Nolan, he now has to duplicate that roster blueprint and he can succeed.
This team missing players like Whitt, Babb and even Hazen has left a whole in our roster not only this season but next season as well.
We can’t know what Garland would have added to this teams success, but we do know that next season we will be relying on many first year players and they aren’t Five star recruits.
Believe me, I wish nothing but success for Mike and our Hogs and root for a victory every time they take the court and always will.
Go Hogs!
Your first sentence, if it’s your opinion that you can’t see it that’s fine, but there evidence a plenty to show that all those teams can lose to Arkansas very easily. Heck, St. John’s beat Duke yesterday and St. John’s isn’t even close to sniffing the tourney. They didn’t even break into the top 100 RPI till yesterday.
I’m trying to figure out all scenarios based on the numbers. I’ve already shown what could happen as a worst case scenario to get in. Best case, we win out and that includes beating a top 10 RPI, top 20 RPI, top 30 RPI, and top 40 RPI team. If that were to happen, we’d reach a 7-8 seed in the tourney. If we just won all our homes games and nothing more, that’s still two top 20 RPI wins and you’re talking probably a 9. Say we win all but the two top 20 RPI games, you’re still looking at worst an 11 spot. The door is still wide open, but even I have to agree it’s starting to close fast.
You do realize that your best case scenario of winning out would mean that this team, this team could somehow flip some sort of switch at this point in the season, probably end up 3rd or 4th in the SEC standings at 12-6 and have a bye in the SEC Tournament.
With all of your knowledge and understanding of the game of basketball, do you honestly believe that this team is capable of doing that?
I’m sticking with .500 the rest of the way and we’ll compare notes at seasons end.
Go Hogs!
Two problems, 1. I never said they’d go undefeated the rest of the way. 2. You didn’t say 4-4, you said you think they can win their next two, but can’t see anything after that. I specifically said, I see no way of beating Bama. The rest I can see us winning, I can also see us losing, but you are completely discounting any possibility of wins.
Now, I will address this again,
Even you have said SCe and Vandy SHOULD be wins. 2-0
Ole Miss is has been eliminated from the NCAAT, there is a good chance in three games, they’ll be on the bubble of not making the NIT and feel sorry for themselves. 3-0
Then we get aTm, you, like many others complained about the two handed pushes, and fouls aTm got away with. Do you really think they will get away with it at BWA? 4-0
Then KY, that’s the one game every year, that we look forward to. Our team will actually be up for that game, KY has issues when they get smacked in the mouth, and are playing away from Rupp. Will they be up for us? 5-0
I very realistically see us winning our next five.
Now, the next game is at Bama. I’ve already said I don’t think we beat Bama. We can’t cover Sexton, and when we start double teaming and trapping him, they’ll hit the 3pt shooter over and over. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him score 30 on all threes against us. 5-1
The AUB, again AUB will more than likely be locked in as a #1 seed in the SECT, Regualr season champs, and not exactly expecting to smash us. At AUB we lost by 11. Many say it was a horrible game, but Jones, who avgs 8pts a game was scoreless, Macon went for 11, he avgs close to 17, so that’s 14 points that we didn’t get at AUB, both play better at home. Plus it’s SR Day, all our players will want to win that game. To me, with all those extenuating circumstances, we should win that game. So 6-1.
That leaves @Missery. I think much like the Ole Miss game, Missery will know their fate. They may not be playing a have to win game. Then again they could be. We will have to wait and see how Missery goes, but I think this is a coin flip. So, I’ll give us a loss, since it’s at Missery on SR Day (I still think we can win). So that’s 6-2
Now, finishing 6-2 puts us at 21-10, 10-8 SEC, 26 RPI, 33 SOS, 5-9 road/neutral record, 8-4 last 12. That’s getting us in.
Good luck with that 6-2 prediction, and for the record I’d you look back I have stated several times I think 4-4 is possible, but I also hunk that’s probably the ceiling at this point. These next two at home, possibly Ole Miss and Texas A&M at home. We lose everything else.
I’ll leave it at that and we will see how next week goes, if we drop even one of those then we’re sunk.
Go Hogs!
If we drop one of the two this week, I agree with you. We will be in deep trouble