- Need to win a big one on the road against FL or SC.
- Need to make it to the Semis in the SEC tourney.
- Need to accumulate 25 overall wins, and no less than a Quarterfinal in the SEC tourney.
Got a lot of work to do to go dancing this yr.
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I agree, but honestly I think we’ll have to win both. SC is not as good as everyone thinks and if we can even the series with Florida at Florida, that will erase our home lose to them.
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I don’t think that is an absolute, of course I’d love to see us win the SEC tourney but if we win the games we should and knock off a few that we shouldn’t, then the regular season could be enough to guarantee a spot for us.
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If we win 25 games then that means we finish conference on a 11-2 run. If that happens then that means we again, won the games we should have and knocked off a team or two we shouldn’t have. We would have at the very least a top 40 RPI and that would guarantee us a spot in the NCAA tourney having win in the SEC tourney.
i think we get in if we win out at home, the biggest of which is last regular season game vs Georgia which could be a de-facto play in game. your point of a big road win is key too, but i would also lump in a win at Oklahoma State. that might carry more weight considering the lack of familiarity with a non conference squad. i believe that gets us to 24-6 with wins over Georgia and Alabama which should be the 2 teams in competition with us for 4th place in conference, unless MS State stays hot. if we win 2 of the big road games we should be in with a fair seed if we win one in SEC tourney.
I don’t think just winning at home would get us in. I don’t think that’s what you were trying to say, but it’s what I’m getting from your first few sentences.
Now, we have 6 home games left and 7 road game (Okie Light). If we just win the home games we will be 20-11. I don’t believe that gets us in (Portis’ freshmen year we won 21 and didn’t get in). So, we have to look at road games. I think we have 3 definite road wins. @Missery, @LSU, @Auburn. Missery is horrible. A loss to them, even at Missery would probably kill our tourney chances, unless we win the rest. LSU ain’t that much better than Missery. We haven’t lost @ Auburn since they built their new arena. It’s one of those arenas, that our guys always seem to play good at. That puts us at 23-8. I think that gets us in, it also puts us at 12-6 in the SEC, at least a 5 seed. I think we win that first game. So, will be 24-9 on selection Sunday (1-1 in SECT). IMO that will get us in. Now, I think Okie Light is a toss-up, they’re struggling right now, so I can see us winning that game. I don’t think we can beat SC or Florida at their place (I’d love to be wrong). That leaves Vandy, I’m not sure it’s a toss-up, but I don’t consider it a definite loss. I can see us winning 25 wins. Even if we only win 23, I don’t think we HAVE to win at either Florida or USCe.
I think you’re right.
your right Baked, if we simply win out at home we dont go dancing, simply meant we have to win out at home, plus win the winnable road games and 1 of the 3 i referenced before. OK state is tossup for sure, but i do give us a shot at SC. they are beatable even at SC. they are sound on defense but struggle to score if Thornwell and Dozier arent on their game. they miss Carrera big time, he was their Manny Watkins. i dont see us winning at Florida unless we shoot 60% from field and 90% from FT. Auburn scares me as they can get hot from outside like they did last yr at our place.
i believe 23 wins is the fulcrum also, but i think 12-6 in SEC gets us 4 seed especially if we beat Georgia. that would give us much needed bye in sec tourney. WPS