With less than 36 hours to go

Here’s what I think the committee will do (caveat: It’s entirely possible they’ll basically have it done by midnight tonight, and I’m going to largely operate on that premise).

Things to keep in mind:

  • How you did in the last 10 doesn’t matter. Beating LSU yesterday counts the same as losing to Hofstra (which is our only remaining Q3 loss; Vandy moved up to Q2).
  • A&M’s win yesterday makes it easier for us to win the tournament, but it makes it harder to move up. Running an LSU-Auburn-Kentucky or Tennessee gauntlet might have gotten us a 3 seed. LSU-A&M-UT/UK? Less likely.
  • We got a little help yesterday. Providence lost. Illinois lost. So did Wisconsin. But UCLA, TTech and Houston won.
  • Our NET is still 20. Didn’t move at all. LSU dropped 2 spots but is still above us.
  • In other metrics, we’re anywhere from 14 (strength of record) to 19 (BPI). LSU is still above us in BPI too. Why? Crappy NC schedule is the only thing I can come up with. But when your best metric is 14th, your chances of being seeded top 12 ain’t great.
  • And most importantly, I’m trying to think like a committee member, not a Hog fan. I do think we’ll beat A&M today, but so will the committee, and they’re likely to punish us a bit if we don’t.

With all of that in mind, the top 16, in order:

1 seeds:
Gonzaga
Arizona
Baylor
Kansas. Would be Kentucky if they won the SECT, but they won’t

2 seeds:
Auburn
Kentucky
Villanova
Duke

3 seeds:
Purdue
Tennessee
Texas Tech
Wisconsin

4 seeds:
UCLA
Arkansas
]Ilinois
Houston

And at the other end, A&M isn’t getting in. As good as they’ve been lately, you don’t get in the Dance after an 8-game losing streak, especially when two of those losses were at home to Misery and the Poultry.

Why not a 3?

UCLA is way better than us in the metrics; a 4 is about as low as they can go.
Tennessee finished ahead of us in the SEC, is WAY ahead of us in the metrics, and we don’t see them until tomorrow if at all.
I could have seen passing TTech if OU had beaten them last night. But they still are above us in every metric.
Wisconsin is all over the place; metrics range from 34th in Pomeroy to 7th in strength of record. I could see them getting dropped to a 4 as well, but that doesn’t necessarily mean we replace them as a 3. And they did win their conference.

I still think if we win today and then beat the KY/Tenn winner Sunday, there is a decent chance that we move to the 3 line.

They may say that what you’ve done lately doesn’t count more than the entire season, but our “lately” has been then entire second half of the season, and will (in the scenario described) include a run through the SEC Tournament and being the winner of that Tournament. I cannot see the committee seeding 3 SEC teams ahead of us, if that plays out that way.

I can’t fault your logic…I just have a gut feel.

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Win today and lose in a thriller classic final should get us a 3

Win it all should get us to 2

So tired of hearing about “body of work” and computer generated bs

This is in fact about the body of work

The computer-Lunardi idiots may prove right — but it’s still wrong. The team that wins the SEC tourney and beat every single national darling — Auburn, Kentucky, Tennessee — is stuck at a 4 seed, no matter what happens after winning all but two of last 17 games, those both losses coming on the road against two of the computer-Lunardi stalwarts. That’s just wrong. If it happens, Arkansas should raise some serious hell. It also makes the selection committee look like a bunch of hacks…with very little credibility. It will be a serious hose job.

But first, Hogs need to win today. Watch them fall to a projected 7 seed and go down in the NET after winning today.:joy:

Lose and I guess Hogs get seeded lower than LSU, a team they beat 3 times. :joy::scream::exploding_head::face_with_symbols_over_mouth:

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One more gripe — what has happened to Arkansas in all these computer rankings and all-I-do-is-play-with-brackets basement nerds — Exhibit 1 in the case that this stuff is a LOAD of crap……

It does not work.

If we win today we’ve probably done everything we can do. I doubt tomorrow matters. The only way I see tomorrow possibly helping us move up is if we play TN and the committee has 2 spots where they could flip-flop us. And that’s just out and out speculation. Regardless, I think we’re a solid 4 seed and it’s not hard to get to the sweet 16 from that. Anything after that just depends on how well we play and matchup against other very good teams.

Great analysis and summary, Swine! I think a 4 is where we’ll land and that’s much better than having one of those dreaded 5-12 match ups. Need to take care of business today of course…

Related note: I’m seeing quite a few mock brackets putting us in Milwaukee in a 4-13 game, some against Chattanooga. Might be hard to find tickets because most of them also have Wisky in Milwaukee as a 3 seed.

Isn’t that only for the NET numbers. Surely, the committee hasn’t been instructed to not give any credence to a team that won their last 10 games (or 15 of their last 17, including the SEC tournament). If so, the committee should be abandoned immediately. If the committee isn’t allowed to use their eye test and exhibit some common sense, they should be abandoned immediately.

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LOL. The committee uses what the NCAA tells them to use. Eye test is part of it, but only part.

From the NCAA website, here are the resources available to committee members:

Committee members have a wide-range of observation, consultation and data resources available to them throughout the season and during selection week. These resources provide the foundation for a thorough and educated process that is reinforced by the committee member’s discussion and deliberation. Among the resources available to the committee are an extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and NABC regional advisory rankings; complete box scores and results, head-to-head results, results versus common opponents, imbalanced conference schedules and results, overall and non-conference strength of schedule, the quality of wins and losses, road record, player and coach availability and various computer metrics. Each of the 10 committee members uses these various resources to form their own opinions, resulting in the committee’s consensus position on teams’ selection and seeding.

Watching games is the eye test. But if you note, none of these include record in the last 10 games.

To be honest, our metrics are really not those of a 4 seed. They’re a 5 seed. So if we wind up as a 4 tomorrow, it’s because the committee thinks we’re better than our metrics.

I agree with most except I’d flip flop ucla and wisc for the reasons you’ve stated and they were in the final 4 last year. If we end up in a matchup with tenn in final and beat them good then I’d could Maybe see us flip flopping that spot to get to a 3 but that’s the only way I see us getting on that line and even then doubtful. I don’t think SEC will get 4 teams in top 12 no way.

Say what? Unless they have been restricted from seeing any of the last 10 games of every team under consideration, their “eye test” of those teams will definitely be affected.

You are the one who keeps putting those hundreds of matrix brackets linked to this board. They have shown the Hogs as a 4 seed for the last several weeks. What “metrics” are you using now in that statement?

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Bracketology 101:

The Bracket Matrix compiles the work of 100+ (142 this morning) people who do brackets. Some of them know what they’re doing, and have a track record to show for it (there are about 50 bracketologists who are better historically than Lunardi, for instance). Others are goofballs who live in Mom’s basement. But that many brackets means that the goofballs’ effect is virtually zero, and the consensus is usually pretty good.

The reason the number of brackets varies from day to day is that the Matrix drops people who haven’t done a bracket update in a few days, but this time of year most brackets are updated daily, so there are more brackets.

I could start a bracket and be included in the Matrix next year, and I’ve thought about it, but I usually don’t have time to do the amount of research that it would take to come up with a reasonable ranking through three months of basketball. So I don’t.

This morning, EVERY SINGLE bracket on the Matrix has us as a 4 or a 5. No 3s, no 6s. Thus really no outliers. Our average score is 4.20.

Metrics are the computer rankings that the NCAA provides for the committee. Some are more results oriented, some are more predictive. They are not the same thing as the Matrix, although I’ve sure most of the bracketologists look at the metrics in doing their rankings.

The metrics the committee has, and where we are right now. Remember that 9-12 would correspond with a 3 seed, 13-16 with a 4 and 17-20 with a 5 seed.

NET: 20
Pomeroy: 16
BPI: 19
Sagarin: 16
KPI: 16
T-Rank: 18
SOR (strength of record): 14

IIRC, KPI and SOR are the results-oriented metrics. Sagarin, BPI and Pomeroy are absolutely predictive. Not sure about T-Rank. NET is just weird.

Argh only 76 miles from their home.

If you just go back and watch a game, without the context of when it was played, you can absolutely use the eye test without consideration of who is “hot” and who is “cold”. And even watching a game live, you can form opinions about the teams without knowing that Xavier is 3-8 since the end of January or we’ve won 14 of 16.

Good analysis jeff. You are probably right. That said, I am gonna hope we win the whole thing, which would 1) Win this group of kids a quality trophy they can cherish the rest of their lives, and 2) MAYBE winning the SEC and beating either Tenner or KY gets is a 3 seed. Jeff has demonstrated that’s unlikely. But I can still hope.

At the very least we keep winning and maybe get the top 4 seed. I DON’T subscribe to the “losing will actually help us” theory. Never have. Oh–a good coach will try to make anything a positive. But unless your team is on some ungodly winning streak with a real case of the bighead going on, or perhaps your team hasn’t yet bought in and needs to get slapped (footnote: Hofstra game) I think winning breeds winning.

Especially this time of year. You wanna be hot.

Lunardi now thinks Kentucky will be a 1 if they win today, regardless of what happens tomorrow. He might be right. The committee doesn’t like to leave a lot to do on Sunday afternoon. And Baylor lost its first game in the Orphan Eight tournament, which is not a good look for a 1 seed.

On the other hand, I think beating LSU clinched a 4 for us. I don’t think losing to TAM would knock us down to a 5, certainly not losing to UT or UK tomorrow.

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