Can they finish 9-9 and win 1 in SEC tourney and get in?
I think it could, but it depends on who the nine are against. Right now there are a couple of poor losses in the SEC record. Arkansas needs to beat some of these teams coming to Fayetteville the next few weeks to add to the quality win total.
9-9 with one win in the SECT means 10-10 overall against the SEC. I’ll go out on a limb & say, “maybe.” 
Right now, I’d be pretty happy with 9-9 & an SECT win. I’m not too optimistic we’ll do that. However, to be sure we’re in, I’d say we need to finish 10-8 or better & even then get an SECT win. We have almost no room for losses to get us to that, though. It means we have to beat a couple of teams on the road. I don’t see it happening. So I hope we at least manage a 9-9 regular season finish. At least our non-conf record is good & it’s good against pretty good competition.
To reach 9-9 they will beat those teams or win two road games with two home losses to Tourney teams.either way they’d be in. 8-10 May get them in. Winning a game in the SECT may help. I know people are ignoring this, but we are 3-1 in neutral site games. Going 1-1 in St Louis would put us at 4-2. So we’d either be 1-9 in true road games, but have victories over aTm, KY, and AUB, or we’d be 3-7 in true road games with two losses to 2 of those three. Right now, in order to not get in, we’d have to go 3-5 or worse. A split or 5-3 (which would make us 9-9) would get us in.