Why is the line dropping?

I get in general how it all works but what’s happened this week confuses me. The first line I saw was aTm -6. My expectation was that a bunch of Aggie money would roll in and push the line up. Instead it quickly dropped to -5.5. It stayed consistent most of the week but today it’s down to -4.5. Is there some new news I missed or is big money coming in on the hogs? Any insight would be great.

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Most of the analysis I’ve seen expects the Aggies to win but not cover. That may be influencing the money coming in on us.

Smart money coming in on the Hogs. Honestly, A&M playing their back-up QB is a pretty big influence on betting. Just a guess, but I’d imagine the line would be in the -7 to 8 if their starting QB was playing.
Serious bettors, that are looking at all the current details between the 2 teams are probably favoring the Hogs at 5.5. The Vegas strip never offered a 6 point line. They all opened at 5.5.

For the Money line bettors, that’s still a good number at Hogs +175. The high has been +185. Not near as high a % drop as the spread.

Texas A&M has two receivers out for the game, Hezekiah Jones and Caleb Chapman. That might have some effect.


Money is coming in on the Hogs obviously. That’s what moves a line pronto.
As for two Aggie receivers being out, we may have two o-lineman out. That’s a bigger deal imo.
I have a friend who maintains that Biddy said Ricky didn’t practice yesterday…that he (Trey) was at practice. I thought Wednesday practices were closed. Maybe he mis-remembered a comment from Tuesday?

Wednesday’s practice was closed. Tuesday’s was open and Stromberg did not practice that day.

I believe receiver Ainias Smith is questionable for the game. He leads them in catches (13) and touchdowns (2). Jimbo Fisher said on the teleconference Wednesday that he’s day-to-day. One of their best linemen, Layden Robinson, who has graded very well on PFF so far, is iffy as well.

Chapman is a starter.

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There was a thought two weeks ago that Luke Matthews, the starting center, would be back for this game. Now, it doesn’t look as promising. Foster, a true freshman, is going to be a great center, but he’s not ready yet for someone like Ridgeway.


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