Current Record: 22-7
11-5 in Conference
RPI of 30
SOS of 74
Current streak - 2 game losing
Current Record: 22-7
11-5 in Conference
RPI of 29
SOS of 58
Here is your answer (per Monday’s Bracketlogy from Lunardii ESPN):
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket … acketology
I’m guessing you’re referring to Wisconsin, although I wasn’t sure originally if it was them or the Chickens. All three are pretty comparable.
First of all, I think using the ESPN RPI is a mistake. It does not correspond all that well to the NCAA RPI, which is what they actually use. As of this morning, Wisky is #32, we’re #31 on the NCAA list.
Second, there are legitimate reasons for Wisky to be ahead of us in seeding. They have 13 top-100 wins to our 10. They have zero losses outside the top 100; we have two (Moo U and Misery). They have only one loss outside the top 50 (last Wednesday at Ohio State). They beat Minny at Minny, which is a better win than anything we have. We lost at Minny. Plus there are two weeks before Selection Sunday; a lot can happen in those 3-4-5 games in both directions. Like beating Florida, for one thing. I see Wednesday as a free shot, just as we had at SoCar two weeks ago.
A side note: ESPN’s BPI gave us a 6% chance of winning all of the last four games. We did anyway. They also give us a 7% chance to win at Florida. On a more encouraging note, BPI now says we have a 95% chance to make the tournament.
Would a win at Florida move Arkansas up over Wisconsin? The 2 horrible losses are on our resume to stay. Nothing will change that.
It would help, but we’d still have fewer top-25, top 50 and top 100 wins than Wisky. Our overall SOS is actually better than theirs. But Moo U and Misery aren’t going away. I’d venture the only way we wind up with a better seed than Wisky would be to win out and reach the SEC final, which would probably require beating either Florida or Kentucky in the semi. Unless Wisky loses to Iowa tomorrow, or Minny on Saturday, or takes an early loss in the BTT.
Just for fun, I plugged the following results into RPI Wizard:
Beat Bama in SECT quarters
Beat Florida in SECT semis
Lose to UK in SECT final
That would put our projected RPI at 21. I think we could pull a top 6 seed then.
Makes sense. I played with RPI wizard and changed those 2 horrible losses and could see how they affected our RPI as well.
What could have been ! We need to win against Florida and Georgia to close out.
Then reach finals or the SEC tournament like you have already said to help seed for the dance.
The RPI really doesn’t tell the full story on a team. Some of those teams have really not beaten anyone! I have a hard time seeing how a team with a losing record in their conference can get an at large bid
RPI is largely a strength of schedule measure, or some would say strength of record. I mean, if you’re in a really brutal league you could have a losing record and still be really good (kinda like football in the SEC West). And it is frequently ignored. Syracuse got in last year with RPI of 72. Their RPI right now is even worse, even after they beat Duke last week.
As for losing records in league play, Xavier is on the bubble at 8-8 in the Big East, 3-8 vs. top 50 RPI teams. Wake Forest is 7-9 in the ACC, #46 RPI, 1-9 vs. the top 50, and plays Louisville at home tonight. They’d better win that one. Marquette is 8-8 in the BE, 5-6 vs the top 50, and plays Xavier tonight. One of those two is going to have their tournament hopes put in a world of hurt.
I can see that but as for TCU. I think they are 16-13 with 2 of those win aginst Washington a team plus 150 RPI. And a loss to Auburn. How would TCU Be a bubble team when I compare TCU to our SEC teams I don’t see them a team that should dance.
I don’t see Wake Forest getting in even with a win at Louisville.
Xavier will be closer with 2 more win in conference. But no lock.
Why would Ole Miss not get a look.
Tennessee is the mind blower to me they have pulled a complete meltdown in the last 3 weeks. Roller coaster. I just have so much hope for the SEC to get back to getting 6 to 7 teams in every year. Like the days we had 6 or 7 teams make the sweet 16. Or 4 teams in the elite 8 !
I will settle for our hogs getting in the Dance. I caught a lot of junk for over 20 years in the Army for wearing my hog stuff.
And now since I’ve been retired we have made one NCAA appearance. The SEC West is tuff but I don’t feel the ACC is any more competeive. I guess the SEC will need to turn the meltdowns aginst the ACC into wins before that will change.