In case you didn’t listen to the interview with Simon Gerszberg of ShotQuality.com on last week’s Basketball Podcast of Mid-America, here’s a deep dive on the Razorbacks’ most effective and least efficient shots to this point in the season:
Thanks for that article Scottie.
I’m curious how shot quality takes into account, if it does, turnovers. If you pass it around trying to find good shot quality and you turn it over, where does that show up?
So let’s say getting to rim is a good shot if you get it off, but in the process of getting there you turn it over. Seems like there should be a statistic related to number of attempts per minute vs. just shot quality. So shot quality% x number of shots should be the winning formula.
To make it extreme, if you take only one great shot per game your going to lose. If you take 100 super low % shots your going to lose if the other team shoots the same amount. However, if you take 100 medium quality shots, but the opponent only takes 50 higher quality shots you may still win.
Sometimes I think our incredibly slow starts are the result of trying to find the best shot and either turning it over or having to take a bad shot vs. taking an available ok shot.
This shows up in a player’s “bad possession rate.” If you follow the link to the Shot Quality website, there is a “players” tab near the top. Click that, then enter “Arkansas” in the search box. It’ll bring up all the info on Razorbacks players. GPR is good possession rate and BPR is bad possession rate. There is an explainer on all the stats that are provided.
I did not know that turnovers were included in the GPR and BPR figures until Seth and I talked with the site’s creator, but they are.
To quote George Bernard Shaw:
“There are three kinds of lies. Lies, Dam*ed Lies, and Statistics”
I think the numbers in the Mizzou and LSU games, cited in Scottie’s article, show we were getting good shots but couldn’t throw a beachball in the ocean. Sometimes you have one of those nights. Kentucky’s had a lot of those nights; last night wasn’t one of them but we won anyway.
You are correct in correcting me!
The quote was by Mark Twain
Had a brain fart!
You certainly can’t tell from the definitions provided of GPR or BPR that turnovers are included.
I assume a turnover is treated as a shot. If you look at Devo’s stats you wouldn’t play him, but clearly he has an impact on the game.
Would love to see these guys provide stats that are deeper on the defensive side.
This topic was automatically closed after 30 days. New replies are no longer allowed.