What is right and what is wrong with our Hogs

Basketball Insider Board
#1

I deliberately have not allowed myself to come onto the board since our loss yesterday. But I have been reading other’s opinions (here and elsewhere), talking to friends, and just plain thinking.
I have seen the opinion that somehow Nick Smith’s return has been bad for the Hogs. I have seen the opinion that there is locker room dissent. I have read criticism of Muss’ attitude and tactics. I could go on.

I am not going to discount anyone’s opinion. But I do want to express what MY opinion is, just for conversation’s sake. Am I am expert? No. I have watched a zillion basketball games, my grandad was a coach, my mom played college ball (all 5-1 of her) and I played for many years. But I am hardly an expert. The only thing I am an expert on is probably classical music. And how to be a caregiver to my wonderful, miracle of a great wife. But I would like to think I have somethings to offer. So here goes.

What is “right”: The trio of AB, Devo and Ricky C. I don’t suspect any of you will argue that these three have been the heart and soul of the team this year. Whether its simply watching, or doing a deep dive into stats…these three have been very good. All year. AB and Ricky will play in the NBA. Devo will be a pro somewhere. All 3, while they have certainly had ups and downs, have been pretty consistent. That said, I do think all three of them are starting to wear down. That is, in my humble opinion, why AB and Ricky’s FT percentage has dipped. It could be the pressure as well. I will give you that. But I don’t think those two are particularly impacted by pressure so much as by wear and tear on their legs…which of course came about because of Nick’s injury. Which leads me to Nick,

I think its just off-base that Nick has been anything but a positive for the Hogs when he’s been healthy enough to be…well…Nick Smith. To see if the stats underscored what I remembered, I took a peak at some stats in games that were significant.

Two “important” non-conference wins which involved Nick were wins versus Oklahoma, and UNCG (which I happen to know has a very fine basketball tradition…though they were admittedly upset by Wofford in their conference tourney). Here are Nick’s stats from those games:

Nick v UNCG - 22pts/6-14FG/1-5 3pt/9-11FT/4RB/3Ast/+7 (plus/minus)
Nick v OU - 21pts/8-16FG/1-53pt/4-4FT/+5

Then Nick was out. Once he came back, he didn’t play meaningful minutes until the the Florida game. Here are his stats the games since his return:

Nick v. UF 10pts/4-12fg/0-4 3pt/2-2FT/1RB/+23
Nick v. UGA 26pts/9-15fg/5-8 3pt/3-4FT/2ast/+23 plus/minus
Nick v. The Team that shall not be named 24 pts/9-23FG/4-5FT/6Reb/2steals -4 plus/minus
Nick. v. Tenn 12pts/3-13FG/1-6 3pt/5-6 FT/2 ast -21 plus/minus
Nick. v. UK 25 pts/10-23FG/3-8 3pt/2-4FT/3Reb/6assist/4steals/1BS -2 plus/minus

Now, I will excuse Nick versus Florida. It was his first meaningful amount of minutes back. Plus, Graham went completely off that game, so his offensive contribution wasn’t as needed. But in the remaining games? Pretty consistent…excluding Tenner. Just yesterday, Nick had a really fine game…albeit in a lost cause. Also, judging by the eye test and looking at team stats, team assists are NOT down. The ball still moves. Nick playing gives the above discussed trio a break.

Y’all…Nick Smith is NOT the problem. Fact is, we NEED Nick to keep playing like this…and add what is clearly THE problem.

Then what is the problem? Let me just lay out some stats:

Hogs v. UNCG
Makhi - 4-5FG/5-7FT/ 14 Rebounds
No other front court player had a FG
Hogs v. OU
Walsh 5-9/2-5 3pt/3 reb/2 steals/1 Blk
Makhi 5-8 FG/6Rbs/4 assts/2 blks
Kamani 2-3FG/5 rebs
Hogs v. UF
Makhi 5-7 FG/10rebs/2 blks
Graham 12-15 Fg/2-3FT/7 rebs/ 2blks
Hogs v. UGA
Graham 3-4FG/5 rebs
Makhi 3-4 FG/5 rebs/4 asts/1Blk
Hogs versus Bama (spit)
Walsh 2-7FG/7reb/3 steals
Makhi 0-2 FG/2rebs/2 asts/2blks
Makhel 2-4 FG/8 rebounds
Graham 1-3 FG/2rebs/3 blks

All pretty good front court production. At least acceptable from 2 or more players from the 4 and 5 spots. Importantly, all of the above were wins accept for the game against Bama (spit)…which was a game even Muss said we played good basketball in a one possession loss

But now look:

Hogs v. Tenner
Walsh 0-4FG/4rebs
Makhi 0-2 FG/3 rebs
Makhel 0-0/0rebs
Graham 0-0/0 rebs
Kamaini 0-0/3 rebs

Hogs v. UK
Makhi 1-2DG/1 reb
Makhel 0-5/5 rebs
Walsh 4-12 FG/1-6 3 pt/7 rebs
Graham…1/2 FG and barely played

This proves to me what my eyes already told me. The “problem” on this team is consistent front court production. Since TB went down, we have 5 players rotating at the 4 and 5 spots: the twins, Walsh, Graham and Kamani. When any 2 of these produce rebounds, hopefully some blocks, and make some in-the-paint shots, we tend to win. Or at least play well.

When they don’t…we have a team of 4 guards trying to carry the load. And we tend to lose.

THAT is the problem. Why? I don’t know. Perhaps because Tenner and UK were VERY physical. Probably gave the twins back more than they gave. Certainly they bodied them in the paint and dared officials to make some calls…knowing they are weak at the line. (Oscar should have been tossed…TWICE).

So…looking ahead…I think we can acknowledge we have roster problems in the front court. Of the 5 playing up front, only Walsh has an all-around game. And he’s undersized against some teams’ #4. Plus, he is not consistent (yet…he needs to stay put and progress…if he does he will be terrific here next year IMO). The twins were never recruited to be offensive forces…but they HAVE to produce in the dunker spot on offense. make the catch. Go up strong and score. If I were Muss I would take a risk and play Graham more. he has great offensive skills. But once Graham shows he can’t handle his match-up defensively…to the bench he goes. And Muss ain’t playing zone to allow Graham (of Pinion for that matter) to play more. Might as well not even hope he does. His core philosophy is man. Just like Eddie. Or Bobby K. As for Kamani…he is also undersized at the 5…but if the game is physical, I suspect he’s gonna play more. May have to.

So…there it is. If you read this far, you are exhausted. I am exhausted writing it. But I hope I have shown that our back court ain’t the problem. Its having front court production in wins…and the total lack of it in recent bad losses. I admit I had to look at the box score to understand how truly bad the front court had played in the last two games. No wonder we got our butts beat.

Front court production will tell the tale in the SEC and NCAA tourneys.

And if you ask me…its one of the twins that is gonna have to play well. hate to say it. But that’s how I see it.

3 Likes
#2

Excellent points. I told my brother today that we need to find some bigs that can play before next year.

#3

Not sure on the IV, he really need to work on his shooting form for the NBA, most everybody he goes against will be just as solid, just as strong and just as big, I love the IV, but he needs to put up a lot of shots and get rid of his hitch

#4

Well, I am going on draft projections. Seems scouts are convinced he will make a roster. Whether he does or not remains to be seen.

#5

We have Baye Fall coming in. Ready to contribute from the get-go? I hope so. And I bet we find other bigs in the portal.

And don’t forget, the twins and Graham can come back. My guess, and this is purely a guess, is that the twins come back, Graham doesn’t.

2 Likes
#6

I hope Fall can help next year, but I saw a picture of him yesterday while he was in town. He was so scrawny, and that didn’t give me good vibes.

#7

Jeff, I’m not sure Muss will want them back.

#8

Nice breakdown, but I think it all boils down to one thing. This group of players as a whole can’t shoot the ball from the outside worth a darn. We suck at perimeter shooting. What does that allow. That allows everyone to play a sag and pack style defense against us and I don’t care who you have in the paint, with enough people packing the lane even Shaq would not fair very well.

So I would not look at getting more bigs as a plan for correcting the problem. I’d be seek some deadeye shooters. If you can loosen up the defenses with the outside shot. Graham, the Twins, and Walsh will thrive in a more open paint situation and be more than adequate.

#9

The twins? We don’t win a bunch of games we won without them, as Robbie documented. (He didn’t mention A&M 1 when they combined for 15 points and 18 rebounds). But they’ve disappeared in the last two games. They need to show up Thursday and going forward.

It should also be mentioned that if the refs had done their job, Makhi would have made a huge play by getting Oscar to 'bow him in the head and get thrown out. But they somehow didn’t think a blatant elbow to the noggin was a flagrant 2.

#10

Fall is an absolute pencil for sure but he’s got a nice little jump hook and he can block some shots he will be a factor at some point next year

#11

Speaking of pencils, Connor Vanover will be in the Dance with ORU and we had a little trouble with a pencil named Holmgren in the Sweet 16.

#12

Yeah if we’re going to play the perimeter game like coach likes to run then he better go out and get three or four snipers because that’s the only way the 1 dribbling 4 watching is going to work.

I think he sees that this year and will rectify that kind of like he did bringing in the big guys when we were dominated last year in the tournament by Duke

#13

Absolutely if a pencil can write extremely well it is definitely worth having for sure

#14

The bigs are there to play D and protect the rim, and when the twins are playing well, they do exactly that. Board and block shots; any scoring is icing on the cake.

1 Like
#15

Fall needs to add a lot of weight before he can bang with a lot of the SEC bigs that we played this year. He looks me like he is lighter than a freshman Gafford. That is perhaps why his ranking was falling in the end. On the positive side, his reach is long and he can block shots coming from the weak side.

#16

I agree…except they do need to score on pocket passes to the dunker on the dive to the rim.
I am not looking for them to be back-to-the-basket types. Just catch the pass…make the at-the-rim shot. We do need them to do that. In the games where they have, we tend to win.

BTW–I ABSOLUTELY believe Muss will want them back.

#17

I would like to think at some point we can improve Grahams defensive play and create some value on both ends of the court. The twins are rarely a threat on the offensive end which allows defenders to help out on our scorers and it has shown up multiple times this season. Fall will no doubt help in the long run but we need help now according to who leaves this season. WPS

#18

I’ve been hoping he would improve as the season went on but haven’t seen a whole lot of it… he’s had a couple of games when he was committed more on defense but for the most part he’s pretty easy pickings the score on when his man gets the ball down low