What is a realistic Arkansas football program win loss record ?

We have discussed this before

I once beloved Arkansas should win the West 2x a decade and the SEC 1x every decade

A rebuilding year would look like 8 wins and a bowl win

Well - maybe I was wrong

What is realistic for Arkansas to reach?

Are we really a midlevel in the best of times with a decent 9-10 win team every decade?

I hope not - I hope better - but I’m not seeing performance that says otherwise?

What must Arkansas do to win?

If we should win 2x a decade can you break down the other 6 teams on how many each should win a decade?

To answer your question, just look at our overall record since joining the SEC. We are a 7 win team. The past is always a predictor of the future.

I don’t don’t know if I agree with TheHuntinHog about the past always being a predictor of the future, that said, for the foreseeable future, no way we win the West 2 times every 10 years and the SEC once every 10 years ESPECIALLY if you think a “rebuilding year” is 8 wins and a bowl win. That is a top 10 or better type program, we aren’t there and I don’t see us getting there. Would love to be wrong.

A rebuilding year for us is going to 5 to 6 wins (I hope no worse). A very good year is going to be 9 wins in regular season. Anything beyond that will be a great year and we will only have one of those in a great while.

Do I hope for more? Yes. Hope springs eternal.

Have you not read the article in Hooten’s? We have been in the SEC for 25 years. We make a lot of money, but we’re a .500 football program. With what we’ve lost from last year’s team, I predict we’re still about the same… .500. The money built tremendous facilities, but almost every SEC school has the same facilities. What lacks, many say talent.
Many believe that we can’t recruit the talent to Fayetteville. How do you win with the talent that you can recruit? To me …it’s coaching…Right now, we’re 5 years into a pro-style offense. Many also believe this the answer. So far, we’re still around a .500 football team. Will this be our break out year? I’m not optimistic. Good SEC defenses have stopped our pro-style approach. We face good SEC defenses year in and year out. We saw a glimmer of hope under Petrino and no I’m not a Petrino lover. I totally agree with what Long had to do and no I don’t ever want him back. It’s his offensive genius and offensive approach that we need. I feel what we can consistently win at a high level with this approach. However, for now, we must accept what we have and support the program. I’ve been a season holder and foundation supporter since 1977 and will continue to do so. Coach B runs a fine program and I hope he succeeds. But if change comes, I want a coach with Petrino’ s offensive approach. Just my thoughts.

Not read Hootens it’s not on the grocery magazine stands in Kentucky

However - you response is good

I’m having a hard time accepting Arkansas as a lower tier program

But our record does speak truth

I hope Coach Bret success

I think he is a good leader and thinks as a strategic manager with a good vision

Sadly Arkansas may be incapable of performing to his level

Coach Bobby - yup a Offensive genius
A lucky / cursed opportunity at Arkansas

I don’t want to go back I want this Coach to succeed

I’m no longer thinking it’s the Coach - it’s Arkansas

So many Coach failures - it can’t just be the coaches

Oh well

What do I know I’m an old fan wanting wins and I may just have to admit - 1964/65 was the long gone glory years and it’s over

I do know this

If Arkansas ever wins the SEC - I’m going to enjoy it because it may never happen again

I agree with this. I admit (1) I didn’t want BP fired (2) I didn’t know all the facts (not the facts about the affair, the facts about sitting in hotel rooms and not recruiting, being a butt at the Cotton Bowl, etc.) (3) I was wrong.

That said, I have said since we hired BB “we can’t out Bama Bama.” I think we have to do something different. We aren’t going to out recruit them for the type of game they play. We play their game, we lose. We need to do something different.

So many questions to answer, but I am leaning 7-5 right now.

May go up or down depending on what I see of fall practice.

As usual, sweeping the non-con and beating Texas A&M sure would help.

I think we have to realistically compare our assets & liabilities to other SEC programs before we can say what we should expect in wins & losses over the long haul. In any given year we can do better than our expectations & if we somehow manage to outperform over a fairly significant length of time, we can actually improve our asset-liability ratio. (We did that in the 60’s & 70’s.)

Teams that “ought” to be ahead of us when we look at the big picture. (Population base, money, tradition, etc.)

Tex A&M

Teams that should be behind us overall or at least more often than not:

Ole Miss
Miss St

Teams one could argue about but who I’d rank “roughly” in our category but includes some we should slightly outpace & some who slightly out pace us.

Auburn (just above us)
Tenn (just above us)

Then slightly below us:

That puts us just about square in the middle of the SEC if my relative standings are correct. I realize one could argue about where to place several of these teams. Perhaps Aub & Tenn should get more credit than I’m giving them. Heck, maybe I’m underrating everyone I put below us except Vandy. Still, this seems to be about right.

Top tier : Bama, UF, LSU, UGA, A&M. Mid-tier: Auburn, Tenn, Ark, USC. Lower tier: UK, MO, Ole Miss, MSU, Vandy

Even if the overall ranking is right or nearly right, it’s reasonable to assume teams can move up or down if they hire a particularly good/bad coach, get caught cheating badly, or some unforeseeable event occurs.

I really like your note and perspective

Can’t really disagree like it - I don’t like Arkansas lack of success in this league

I believe Arkansas is mid level at best given the current situation. 3, 7, 8, and 7 wins under Bielema with 7 or so likely again in 2017.

Arkansas can do better - Nutt and Petrino proved that - but I think what you have seen is what you will get with this coach.

If you are correct that would mean Bielema would have had two NFL QB’s back to back and the best regular season record was 7-5.

Will be interesting to see what happens with less experience and talent at the position.

If everything is “normal” in the SEC, I think Arkansas’ expectations year to year should be pretty much what we saw in the HDN years. Forget the personality of the coach, that decade is by far the best decade of our 25-year period in the SEC. Sure, CBP had two really good years, but his tenure was too short to get a true gauge of where Arkansas would be over a 10-year period.

“Normal” means pre-Saban greatness at Bama, non-cheating (or at least less cheating) by Ole Miss and Mississippi State being average (pre-Dak years) again. I don’t know if that means winning the West three times (2x’s outright) every 10 years or not, but the Hogs should contend at least that much, if not more.

Nobody can shake the feeling of losing those last two games last year. Win, finish 9-4 and what would the pundits be saying going into this year? Lose, finish 7-5 and look at what they’re saying. There’s a real chance the Hogs could outperform expectations this year, but it’s hard to see that because Hog fans have long lived with the feeling that if it can go wrong, it will go wrong. Once again, we’ll see.

Every year I expect Arkansas to win at least seven games; typically four in nonconference and at least three in conference. That doesn’t always happen - the 2015 team got to eight wins with two nonconference losses - but it’s a general expectation of mine.

I don’t think the SEC is a deep conference this year, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see Arkansas exceed seven wins if there aren’t any losses in the nonconference.

It takes more than a quarterback.

We all know defense has been the biggest problem the last two years

7-5 is about right, I believe.

We wil be better than last year, but our schedule is brutal. We play Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, South Carolina and Texas A+M away from the state. The defense should be better…surely…it can’t get much worse. The offense under Dan Enos will be good, of that I have little doubt.

Our recruiting is going to have to ramp up for us to move up.

With this coach? Probably 8 wins on a good year, or so it seems

An “average” year should be, win 3 of 4 NC games and split the 8 conf games. (7-5)

An above average year would be win all of the NC games and 6 or 7 Conf games. (either 10-2 or 9-3)

I see no reason to believe Bielema can’t be as successful or even more successful than either Nutt or Petrino. The last two games last season were disheartening. So was the Auburn game. However, I think we make a mistake when we read too much into things like that. There are just too many variables at work to draw solid conclusions.

I’m interested to hear your reasons on why you think he CAN be as successful as Petrino? What have you seen that makes you think he has a 10 win and then an 11 win year in him while at UA?

That’s kind of what I was wondering.

I’ve yet to see a steady dominant offensive line and power run game. We had it for 1 season. I hope I’m wrong, because I do like CBB, but I think he’s hit his ceiling.

Coaches have to be very good at one aspect of coaching atleast, to be successful. Whether it’s an offensive mind, defensive mind, or recruiting. Not sure where we are.