I think we have to realistically compare our assets & liabilities to other SEC programs before we can say what we should expect in wins & losses over the long haul. In any given year we can do better than our expectations & if we somehow manage to outperform over a fairly significant length of time, we can actually improve our asset-liability ratio. (We did that in the 60’s & 70’s.)
Teams that “ought” to be ahead of us when we look at the big picture. (Population base, money, tradition, etc.)
Teams that should be behind us overall or at least more often than not:
Teams one could argue about but who I’d rank “roughly” in our category but includes some we should slightly outpace & some who slightly out pace us.
Auburn (just above us)
Tenn (just above us)
Then slightly below us:
That puts us just about square in the middle of the SEC if my relative standings are correct. I realize one could argue about where to place several of these teams. Perhaps Aub & Tenn should get more credit than I’m giving them. Heck, maybe I’m underrating everyone I put below us except Vandy. Still, this seems to be about right.
Top tier : Bama, UF, LSU, UGA, A&M. Mid-tier: Auburn, Tenn, Ark, USC. Lower tier: UK, MO, Ole Miss, MSU, Vandy
Even if the overall ranking is right or nearly right, it’s reasonable to assume teams can move up or down if they hire a particularly good/bad coach, get caught cheating badly, or some unforeseeable event occurs.