What are reasonable expectations?

What should reasonable fans (that probably excludes many of us) expect for the Razorbacks year in year out?

My thoughts

Little Sisters of the Poor: 3 games; 3 wins
Power 5 opponent: 1 game; 0.5 wins
SEC Top Tier opponents (AL, LSU): 2 games: 0.5 wins
SEC Mid Tier opponents (AU, SECE, TAM): 3 games; 1.5 wins
SEC Low Tier opponents (OM, MS, MZ): 3 games; 2.1 wins
Bowl Game: 1 game; 0.5 wins

Totals 13 games; 8.1 wins

I think that should be an average year for the Hogs

A good Arkansas team would have won 10 this year and would have won 9 or 10 last year and the year before. I did not say a great team, I’m only talking about a good team - one with good fronts, good quarterbacking and solid play in the kicking agame and else where. We have had those teams before and can have them again with the right coach.

Everyone has their own theory, but I base my expectations of teams on their performance history, then adjust for variables like a great individual player, big senior class, coaching upgrade, favorable schedule, etc.

These are the average overall and win totals for every head coach since the Razorbacks joined the conference (Joe Kines and Smith excluded). Keep in mind that Danny Ford did not have the benefit of a 12-game regular season and Houston Nutt’s 10 seasons included only four with 12 games. Nutt likely would have made another bowl game with the benefit of a 12th game because of the proliferation in bowl games around that time and the type of teams (FCS) that are scheduled with the additional game. Both of Bret Bielema’s averages would increase by 0.2 points with a win over Missouri.

Coach: Avg. Total Wins; Avg. SEC Wins

Danny Ford: 5.2; 3

Houston Nutt: 7.5; 4.2

Bobby Petrino: 8.5; 4.3

Bret Bielema: 5.8; 2.2

Arkansas has averaged seven wins total and around 3.5 SEC wins each year since the first 12-game schedule in 2002. Some of those years include bowl wins and two were 11-game seasons in which there probably would have been a couple of more wins with a 12th game available.

Nutt and Petrino both showed Arkansas can win on a consistent basis, but as many have pointed out, some of those years coincided with a time when teams toward the bottom of the division were not as strong. Mississippi State used to be a game everyone but Ole Miss would pencil in as a win. Not anymore. And Texas A&M’s addition to the division reduces the number of opportunities to play the likes of Vanderbilt and Kentucky.

I thought this year’s team would win at least six games and make a bowl, so it is going to finish a game or two games below my minimum expectations.

I pretty much agree with your analysis. 8.1 wins per year average.

I also agree a good Ark team would win 10. However, the good team isn’t likely to occur terribly often–at least not if it’s going to be defined as one that wins 10 games. We had that in 2010 & 2011. Those were the only two in our SEC history. Back when we played 11 games, the 1998 team won 9, but then lost in the bowl game to Michigan & some QB who I think now plays in the NFL.

One other thing, Matt. Alabama was on probation or had coaching issues from about 1998 until whenever Saban arrived. They weren’t the juggernaut they are today. For us to have a better record, Alabama has to come back down from the stratosphere.

Its all relative. Tennessee, Florida, and Georgia used to be juggernauts every year too, and well played them very often.

Also, South Carolina with Holtz and Spurrier was better than now. We played them every year.

Saban was at LSU when we beat them a couple times as well

The SEC is not as strong now as it was 10 years ago, imo. (Most analyst seem agree with that).

It’s difficult for me to tie expectations to a specific number of wins so I’ve always said that my expectations for an Arkansas coach boil down to this: consistent relevance. I can’t tell you what consistent relevance means in terms of exact number of wins per year, but there are some general things it means to me. Being ranked more often than not. Making a bowl almost every (enough to were it’s a big story when Arkansas doesn’t make a bowl, a major rebuilding year perhaps). Winning the games we ‘should’ win each year (non conference and lower tier SEC). Establishing an intimidating home field advantage at DWRRS and defending it. Creating a winning culture. Fielding a team that is always well coached and competitive. Avoiding NCAA investigations and major scandals. And being in position to make the occasional run at an SECW Championship. I’m sure there’s more, this just off the top of my head.

I would say we were consistently relevant under Holtz and Hatfield (and of course Broyles before my time). HDN certainly had teams that were relevant, but couldn’t quite break through and do it consistently. BP seemed to have us positioned to become consistently relevant. So it’s certainly possible to do it here with the right coach.

How many has Gus averaged at Auburn with consistently more talent? He has also played us every year and playing the Hogs is easier than playing Auburn talent, or at least it seems that way. Guess my point is how will he be an upgrade??

relevance in most years

lose by 20 plus points as often as you have 10 win season

never ever give up

always play hard

If we get Gus he will have to recruit as well here as he has there to produce the same results that he’s having at Auburn, if he can’t his win total will be less. Just because he’s coming to Arkansas he’s not going to become magically better at coaching up less talented individuals than he has done at Auburn. That may be the reason I like Norvell better it’s seems he’s done more with less and I think that’s what we need at Arkansas, but I can be just as easily wrong as the next guy. If lesser talent would equal two additional losses for Gus and he loses to Bama that would bring the total to 5 regular season losses, would that be acceptable at Arkansas? This may not make much sense but in my feeble mind it did when I was mulling over the question. WPS

I believe that we lost to Fla every year but last year and Ga beats us 90% of the time

I’m not so sure the SEC is down that much though

We are a 7-8 win team at best.

NO COACH will recruit at Ark like they do at Auburn NO COACH

MSU is better because of the talent in their backyard JR college leagues, that is how they avoid the the losses each year.

We can be the same but only every few years when there is a big senior class

The coach made big mistakes in hiring and some in recruiting but having 12 seniors and all those underclass players this year will mean bad year

Its hilarious that everyone thought we would have a bad year and when we do they lose their minds.

Read the experts all said 4-8, 5-7 for this year. Las Vegas said the same and they know their stuff.

Now all of us were saying 9-3, 8-5 but look at the talent between the teams that beat us and what we have, it is huge.

The one team that bothered me the most was SC, we should have beat them but once the def started scoring we were done. Kind of what we did to Ole Miss in the 2nd half
IF and when we change coaches it has to be someone who can use what we can get here
I think CBB is really trying to go more spread because he knows we cannot out muscle the other teams.
Did it come to late because if being hard headed?? yep

His offense will work here but you have to have a good def and we do not. I think if they had another year it would be a hell of a lot better

Texas has the speed we need to be better on both sides but who ever is the coach must get it here

Speed does not have to be 5*

If we don’t get a better coach than GM, we will be
having similar discussions on this board in five years.
Unless, of course, we have a slush fund available to soften the all too real difficulties in getting our recruiting classes consistently in the top six in the SEC.
I can see why the Auburn folks want him to go away.
He inherited a decent team(likely aided by $$$$$) and
he started off with a bang. If we get on that pious crap
that is likened to a bus, it will not end well. My hope is
that some of our influential, rabid Hog fans step in and
offer a better alternative.

Good point about speed. Lots of speedy, quick players in TX on rosters at TCU, OK St. that are NOT 5 stars- evaluate and recruit the heck out of East Texas!

LOL i believe i made a lot of good points but just for the good guys

Come on Don! I’m trying here!! :smiley:

Goals for all programs
Win 11-12 games to be in current championship playoffs (4teams)
Win 10 games to be able to slide into playoffs on chance
Win 9 games to be considered as team capable of getting to playoffs at some time

Increasing the number of teams in the playoffs would lower that number somewhat but best schools that win today still would have best chance of staying relevant. Excess tv coverage has increased parity beyond the norm of 10 years ago

Arkansas has hit the 10-11 win level in past and should again but Arkansas will have more volatility in trying to be constant at that level due to lack in state athletes. More innovative coaching , player development, and better recruiting are keys just like the formula Broyles followed.

We become more relative when the coaches quit signing Dbs that run 4.8, LBs that run 5.0 and DL that run 5.3 forties. We have some weapons on offense, just not good enough to make up for this lousy defense. Nutts heal was QBs, Bielema’s is defense.