what are odds?

of Gafford turning pro after this year.

my personal opinion is he needs another year. i don’t know what the difference is money wise and guarantees between say a 19 pick, where he was last projected, and a lottery pick. one more year, a lottery pick probably if he progresses and he seems to have to want to to do that. i also don’t know his family situation.

ill say 50/50 and that is purely a guess. hope he stays one more year.

I looked up the 2017 rookie pay scale. This is assuming the max deal. The lottery ends at #14. For two years max deal $5,446,200, max deal for four years $12,587,510 for #14. Number 19 (Gafford was listed at 16 on one site per the announcers, so I’ll put #16 in parenthesis, same two and four year deals) gets $4,236,000 ($4,915,800) for two and $9,922,522 ($11,497,652). There isn’t a lot of difference there. Now if he returns and becomes a Top 10, $6,686,160 for two, and $14,724,873.

I guess the question is $2 million that much of a difference? And he also would get to his second contract faster. That would make up for the $2 million difference. I guess he would really have to love college, or a degree to comeback. Does he? Guess we will find out soon

IMO, if he is anywhere close to a #16, he is gone. That is just too much money to pass up. I thought he was looking at second round. Guess that is what I get for thinking.

According to Forbes. The #16 pick last year will make 4,915,080 his first 2 years and 11,497,652 the first 4 years. Nbadraft.net projects Gafford as #7 in the 2019 draft, Forbes said the #7 player last year will make $8,357,760 his first 2 years and $18,384,350 the first 4 years. So you’re talking about a 7 million dollar difference during his rookie contract, that’s a pretty big difference.

As far as the second contract. It was always my belief that you want to get in the best possible situation so you get the best money in the future. I’ve seen many times where guys left early and ended up being a late first or second rounder and get buried in the depth chart because they ended up getting a good team with better players ahead of them. If that happens you might not have to worry about that second contract, because you may not get one or it’s not going to be that much. On the other hand if you’re a guaranteed lottery pick, you’re most likely going to a bad team, that’s going to give you a chance to prove yourself. Lottery picks are considered very valuable, worst case scenario the GM is going to pressure the coach to play you even if you’re bad, if for nothing else to help save their job since they made such a big investment in you.

When it comes to the draft, I don’t think you leave if your stock is still rising. Bobby Portis should have left when he did, he was SEC POY, he had been the face of the program for 2 years, his stock was pretty much maxed out after his sophomore year. A mid-first rounder would probably be the highest he would go. Gafford on the other hand, it’s very likely he could be the the 1st or 2nd best big man coming out next year and be a top 10 pick. This year he’s behind several good big men. He could go around 16 or he could slip, simply because teams may have other needs when they get to him.

At this moment, I think he comes back for two reasons.

One he idolizes Bobby Portis and wants to follow that same path.

Secondly there are some 8 PF/Cs that will go in the first round. Gafford could be anywhere from the fifth to the eighth of those which would put him in the end of the first round or possibly even into the second round.

If he comes out in 2019, it’s a guard-oriented one and he would be closer to the top.

I do expect him to put his name in and go through the process as Jaylen and Daryl did last season.

Dudley I think you have it right. I would also imagine Gafford will talk to Portis and get some advice. There’s no way to predict what will happen but one thing is for sure I’m proud that Gafford was loyal to the Hogs and went to the hill! This isn’t about what’s best for the hogs it’s about what’s best for Gafford. Another home grown loyal hog!

We can’t be upset if he chooses to leave. We were angry not to get a certain one-and-done who chose the greener (ur, blue) grass elsewhere. Now that we have a potential one-and-done, we should glad he chose Arkansas and support him in his decision. I hope he tests the waters and stays, but if not, I wish him good luck at the next level.

Good stuff.

I think it depends on what the kid wants to achieve. If his sole goal was to make it to the NBA, he probably will be gone. He might want to enjoy the college life for a bit longer. Regardless, he has a promising future. He seems like a solid guy.

What is the Bobby Portis path? Bobby made statements about what he wanted to achieve at Arkansas and left just as he was poised to achieve them.

I think in the end, chances are slim. I hope he stays obviously, just don’t see it.

After next year he could be a 20/10 kind of center and be a lottery pick … regardless, as others mentioned, thanks big man for being a Hog.

I don’t know if DG is a first round pick or not. But if he knows for certain, for certain, for certain that he is, he’s got to go. Or at least that is what I would tell my kids in the fantasy world where one of them is a 1st round NBA draft pick.

If he is really a top 10 or close pick, then one would think he would be first team All-SEC, and possibly 2nd or 3rd team All-American. And, I don’t think he will be. Barford has a shot at first team. Macon, Barford and Gafford all should be on one of the 1st, 2nd, 3rd teams. I think Gafford returns.

very comforting to read dudleys post. good info. it is a big heavy class and i think the kid needs more work also.

that being said, are we recruiting a big for next years class?

Has nothing to with post-season accolades. It’s all about long-term projection/potential.

He’s a 6’11, runs like a deer, can jump, is willing to work and his offensive game shows promise. The NBA sees that and thinks, “I can get him in the mid to late round of the 1st, add weight, work with him 8 hours a day for 2 years. With his work ethic he will be a rock solid 6’11 250 lb shot blocker with the ability to shoot the 15 foot jumper. A pick and roll machine.”

Hope he stays!

The Bobby Portis path would be giving Arkansas two great years and then making the absolutely correct move to turn pro.

I sure hope he stays. He would be the key to continuing
an upward trend. I wonder if he knew Garland would be
on the floor if that would increase his expectation of a
successful final year.