Whaddya Expect for the Final SEC Record

Our Hogs are currently 15-6, tied with Vandy; two games above LSU, Ole Miss, MSU, and Georgia (at 13-8), with TAMU tagging along with 11 wins in 7th position.

Except for Vandy and Georgia, all of the Western Division teams above play two games against each other. LSU, Ole Miss, MSU and Arkansas each play one road game against one another. TAMU plays MSU and Arkansas at home - tough opponents, but at home.

Of the West teams it appears to me that LSU has the easiest remaining schedule, except that the have to play the hot Hogs in Fayetteville. Vandy and Georgia have by far the easiest remaining schedules…Georgia’s looks like Tuesday night games.

Given the foregoing, I expect the Hogs to win 5 of their remaining 9 to end up with a remarkable 20-10 record – two games better than last year (amazing to me).

For what it’s worth, Warren Nolan now expects us to run the table in the SEC, finishing at 24-6. I think that may be just a tad optimistic but 21-9 is very doable and 22-8 would not shock me.

22-8

I’m not sure how the Texas A&M series will go. But I think after the next two weeks the record will be 19-8 or 20-7.

I think 20-10, but I would not be shocked with 21 or 22 wins.

IF we get to play them all, I’d expect 20-10 (that’s winning 2 of 3 games in KY, then splitting 3-3 in some fashion with LSU and A& M), which wouldn’t win the SEC but probably would win the SEC West, and definitely would earn us a top 8 seed - which is ultimately all that matters to me.

Sure, I’d love to win the SEC regular season title. And, there’s a very good chance we would have if we played in the East - but it is what it is. And if we end up in Omaha, I really don’t care all that much.

Frankly, to me a college baseball season is measured by what happens in June. Play well enough to get into the tournament, first of all, to host a regional and to host a super. But if all of that doesn’t result in a conference title, meh. Win the conference title but crash out in the regional, it’s a bad year. Finish 16-14 in the regular season but get to Omaha, it’s a good year (2012 Hogs).

As you know, SF, I’ve been a “fan” of Nolan’s site for several years (you used to give me static about referencing that site instead of the “official” NCAA report that doesn’t come out as often, but these days I see you reference it all the time yourself). But this is the one area where I find it virtually useless.

The flaw is the same mistake that most fans use when the try to predict a season record game by game; if one team is “better” than their opponent, they are always, picked to win, 100% of the time. What would be much, much more accurate is to use a percentage chance of winning instead of 100% win or lose.

As an example, let’s say that a team with a top 5 RPI statistically prevails over a team with a 25 RPI 61% of the time (Funny - I made that up. However, I just looked and one of the two methods he uses in his predictions actually have us with a 61% chance of beating UK this week). Nolan’s projections would have the #5 RPI team winning EVERY game played between the two, so he projects a sweep. In reality, if there is any validity to the statistics (and the 61% chance of the better team winning a single game), then it’s much more likely that the #5 team will win 2 out of 3 (1.83 wins is what would be expected) than to sweep. In fact, the chances of a sweep by the #5 team (in this example) is less than 1 in 4 (22.7%).

I don’t know why he bothers to perpetuate the “Predicted winner” part of the site; sure, predict a match-up of any two team for a single game. There’s some interest in that. But if you’re going to project “each game of the series”, project the 3 game series, not 3 one-game results. It’s just bogus - and misleading.

Agree. Getting to the CWS is the primary goal. Winning it comes next. I’d like an SEC title, but it’s Omaha I’m really interested in.

As for the original question: I’ll predict 21-9. I see no worse than 20-10, but wouldn’t be shocked at 22-8. Anything better would be a very pleasant surprise.

[quote=“WizardofhOgZ”]

As you know, SF, I’ve been a “fan” of Nolan’s site for several years (you used to give me static about referencing that site instead of the “official” NCAA report that doesn’t come out as often, but these days I see you reference it all the time yourself). But this is the one area where I find it virtually useless.

The flaw is the same mistake that most fans use when the try to predict a season record game by game; if one team is “better” than their opponent, they are always, picked to win, 100% of the time. What would be much, much more accurate is to use a percentage chance of winning instead of 100% win or lose.

As an example, let’s say that a team with a top 5 RPI statistically prevails over a team with a 25 RPI 61% of the time (Funny - I made that up. However, I just looked and one of the two methods he uses in his predictions actually have us with a 61% chance of beating UK this week). Nolan’s projections would have the #5 RPI team winning EVERY game played between the two, so he projects a sweep. In reality, if there is any validity to the statistics (and the 61% chance of the better team winning a single game), then it’s much more likely that the #5 team will win 2 out of 3 (1.83 wins is what would be expected) than to sweep. In fact, the chances of a sweep by the #5 team (in this example) is less than 1 in 4 (22.7%).

I don’t know why he bothers to perpetuate the “Predicted winner” part of the site; sure, predict a match-up of any two team for a single game. There’s some interest in that. But if you’re going to project “each game of the series”, project the 3 game series, not 3 one-game results. It’s just bogus - and misleading.

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Always enjoy your analysis of these things, Wiz. I agree 100% with that last point.

Exactly.

Warren has features the NCAA doesn’t (projected results being one of them; quadrant breakdown of opponents being another). The NCAA finally has gotten around to updating their RPI on a daily basis instead of the old weekly updates, but even so, WN has more bells and whistles to consider.

WN just makes three single-game predictions. The part that I think is misleading is that it has no way to account for things like pitching matchups, or injuries, or suspensions. The Friday night matchup between Hogs and Jellycats is not the same as the Sunday matchup. Isaiah Campbell vs. Jimmy Ramsey on Friday, Connor Noland vs. Mason Hazelwood on Sunday (based on who UK started against Florida last weekend). That 61% chance is a generic Hogs vs. Cats matchup, but because of pitching, there is no generic matchup.

It’s a good thing games aren’t played on paper! Throw all the numbers out the window the hogs are hot! The edge Kentucky has at home is the new carpet.
After that the edge goes to the hogs.

Sweep Kentucky (3) wins, Sweep LSU (3)
And (2-1) at Texas A&M.
23-7. That’s my crazy guess. I just hope Cronnin find some majic!

Will agree to disagree, SF.

As I pointed out in some detail above, the characterization of 3 game series as individual games in which the higher rated team always projects to win ALL games in the series played between two teams is VERY misleading and inaccurate. So much so as to render it useless, or worse. He should know better than to predict that a team that has a 60% change of winning (which in baseball, is pretty significant) “should” sweep the other team. in fact, he HAS to know better. But people coming to his site that don’t have as deep an understanding of these things think he IS predicting a sweep (see your comments above), and it’s just wrong. You CANNOT say Team A has a 60% chance of winning a single game with Team B, and then say logically that Team A “should” sweep the series. Those two statements contradict each other. You CAN say that Team A has a much, much better chance (21.6% to 6.4%) of sweeping the series than does Team B. And you can say that Team A has a better chance (64.8% to 35.2%) of winning the series than Team B does. But you can’t say Team A “should” sweep the series, when the odds are roughly 1 in 5.

Now, factoring in the starting pitcher (as you mention) would also make some difference, but not as much as you seem to think. The problem is that there is not enough data on the different match-ups to make a meaningful prediction on them; just not a large enough sample. So, you pretty much HAVE to use “team A vs. team B” type predictions. And even if you could adjust it by pitcher, often the starting pitchers don’t stay in the game too long for reasons other than effectiveness (or lack thereof), and then you’d be “matching up” the bullpen. Again, FAR too small a sample in college baseball to do that in any meaningful manner.

Maybe there is no way to account for all that, especially given small sample size. But IMO its absence still renders it misleading. It would appear, not knowing UK any better than I do, that their best chance to win this weekend is Saturday when they’re going to throw Thompson, who appears to be their staff ace. And indeed that’s what happened against Florida; the Saturday game was a 5-1 UK win with Thompson getting the W.

Just keeping it simple here per the OP
Best - 23-7
Worst - 20-10

Host Regional
Get back to Omaha
All Good

Jimbeau77 hits the sweet spot all around. OMAHOGS!