West Tightened Up Jus' a Tad

Two teams tied for first, three including the Hogs 1 behind. All 5 in the running to host a regional.

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Yes… I was in the odd position of pulling hard for Auburn during that doubleheader at MSU on Saturday… Although both teams are still ahead of us, MSU might have been too far ahead to catch had they not been slowed down by War Eagle…

It’s going to be a horse race down the stretch… our final series at A&M may be the decider…

Other than Alabama, every team in the west has a chance to win it. Well, OM might be almost out of it, but not by much.

I really hate we blew a pretty comfortable position. Had we won just one more game at AU & against OM, we’d be sitting very pretty right now. Now we have to win 7 of our remaining 9 to get to 20 wins. That’s doable, but we’ll need to sweep Tenn to have a realistic shot at that. Tenn isn’t a bad team & it’s tough to sweep on the road, but it’s still doable. Have to get at least 2 of the 3, though. Glad we have this week to recuperate. If fatigue was our problem, we have good shot to win the series against Vandy the following week. Playing them at Baum gives us a decent chance to sweep them, but they’re too good a team for us to count on that, but it’d sure be nice going into A&M having gotten to 19 wins.

Looking at that makes losing 2 of 3 to Ole Miss, at home, all the more painful. After Friday, I couldn’t even bring myself to keep up with college baseball over the weekend.

I know its baseball, and things happen, but dang it, that is just a killer. :cry:

At the end of the year, it is going to be very painful to think we lost one to Alabama (considering they have only won TWO SEC games so far); the game we gave to LSU; and losing 2 at home to Ole Miss.

Yeah, this is already a season full of “what ifs” & “if onlys.” Fortunately, we can still play ourselves back into things. Get to Omaha & none of these things will matter.

The one that hurts the most is the Saturday game v. LSU at home. Second year in a row we gave a way a game to the Corndogs when we had what should have been an insurmountable late lead . . . and you can’t convince me that the 0-2 loss the next day wasn’t due in great part to the hangover from the loss the night before.

:x

Agreed Wiz. I knew at the time that was more than just a loss. It was kind of a season altering disaster.

Here’s the thing, though; it doesn’t have to be a defining moment. It may end up being, but it doesn’t have to be.

It’s all there right in front of us. Nine games. Tough competition - but not as bad as it could be (then again, NOTHING is easy in the SEC). I would think it’s good to have concrete goals to play for at this time in the season - and the schedule to be able to attain those goals. Keep in mind that the teams we’re competing with for the same goals have it just as hard - or harder - than we do.

If we take care of business, all of our goals are still there to be attained. SEC West Champions. Overall SEC Champions. Hosting first and possibly second rounds of the NCAA Tournament.

I’d say we’d need 7 wins (out of the 9) to reach all of those goals. Winning 5 may get us a first round at home, but 6 almost certainly would.

You’re a bit more optimistic than I am that 5 wins could get us a host spot. I’m not even sure 6 would although there’s a good chance. I haven’t checked the remaining schedules for the conference leaders other than I know Vandy & A&M have to face us. I’m sure all of them (Fla, AU & MSU) will lose some games, but not sure how many or to whom. Anyone facing Bama is likely to sweep & certainly will win 2.

For a look at what’s left for the SEC West, click here and look at the last 3 teams listed for each school’s schedule.

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=7771

Keep in mind that hosting is not dependent - at least, solely - on whether or not we win the West. It’s all about overall record and RPI. It is not unusual for the SEC to have 3 or 4 hosts in the first round, and the conference frequently has 2 National Seeds (sometimes three!). All things being equal, winning the Western Division wouldn’t hurt, but it is not the end all, be all when it comes to NCAA tournament seeding.

Just to be clear; I’m not predicting that we’re going to end up winning 6 or 7 of our remaining games. Just pointing out that it’s out there right in front of us. And though it won’t be easy, it’s not equivalent to saying we need to win our last 5 football games to be Bowl eligible, or win 9 or our last 10 to get into the NCAA Basketball tournament.

This IS doable, though not necessarily likely. And that’s a heck of a lot better than “have NO chance (to host)”. I like the fact that we have a carrot right in front of us going down the stretch.

Thanks for the link, Wiz. Looks like there’s going to be some beating up on each other for several of the top schools.

I agree we don’t have to win the west to host, but I’m just not as optimistic that 5 or 6 games would allow us to host (unless it also means winning the west.) But, yeah, winning 6 or even 7 is doable–even if difficult. I’m optimistic about our chances of sweeping TN since we’ll be coming off an 8 day layoff. I think anything we lose by too long a layoff will be more than made up for by much needed rest. Tenn isn’t a bad team, but if Blake & Stephan are up to form, I don’t see us losing those first two games to them. Road or not, I think we sweep the Vols. If I were giving odds, I’d put us just above 50% of winning all 3. (Yeah, I pulled this percentage out of my backside, but I still feel good about the prospects.)

This means you think we have an 80% chance of winning each individual game.

When I assign odds, I only assign an 80% chance to the biggest mismatches where SEC Football games are involved - and not often. Percentages that high are reserved almost exclusively to non-conference mismatches . . . or Alabama home games against other than LSU or Florida (during the current Saben era).

In baseball, where the best teams usually win only about 2/3 of their games (in conference play), and it is not uncommon for the underdog to beat the favorite in a given single game, I would never assign a win probability greater than 70% - and that would be for home games. With this series on the road, I hope for but do not expect a sweep.

I do think we have a very good chance to win the series, and that’s what I’m focused on. A sweep would be nice, and give us a boost. But I give that about a 1 in 4 or 5 chance of happening.

Well, you’re right, and 80% chance for each game is a bit high. I guess if I were thinking of each individual game (and multiplying by 3 to get the chances for a sweep) I’d say about 60%+ for each game to get to something like a 22%-25% chance for a sweep.