Went from 60 in NET to 62. I know some think that South Carolina loss was the end of the world or dug us in a hole… you gotta pay attention to the NET and Quadrants. South Carolina has a NET of 99, losing to them on their home floor is not the end of the world, only a quadrant 2 loss, and if they keep it up, they could actually turn into a quadrant 1.
I keep saying the goal is to get to 19 or 20 wins and we’re in a good position to make the tournament. We still have at least 9 games left, we gotta get 5 or 6 of them, which I think is very possible for this team. Also, something else of importance Vanderbilt is now getting close to being a quadrant 3 team, so them and Texas A&M, who would be a quadrant 3 game for us at home, are the most important games left for us and they are almost must win games. If we lose to one of them we have to beat Auburn or Kentucky on the road to off set it.
As of right now, just looking at everyone’s current NET and where bracketologist think we are at, I still think all we need to do is finish at least 9-9 in conference (avoiding bad losses to Texas A&M and Vanderbilt) and win 1 quality game in the SEC tournament (meaning a game against 1 of the other 8 projected SEC teams in the field) and that will get us on the right side of the bubble. If we finish 10-8 and get 1 win in the SEC tournament, I almost have no doubt we’ll be in.
Look at the schedule and see where you can find wins for a team that fails to be able to hold a lead! That’s my thought.
The NET doesn’t make me feel any better about that loss. There was something good they did do. 75% from the feee throw line. 15 / 20. Improved there.
They didn’t start off flat like usual. They had an 11 point lead in the first half and just like the second half let go of the rope.
Maybe they will learn from it. The NIT is more likely for the Hogs than the Dance.
I’ve already posted my game predictions several times, at this point I think it might get annoying if I post them again. Basically, I think we finish 10-8 in conference, obviously that’s just my opinion, I’ve been wrong before, but I’ve also been pretty close before as well in previous years. I do remember when everyone thought the 16-17 team was falling apart after losing 3 of 4, when we lost to a 1-9 Mizzou team, got blown out at home by a struggling Vanderbilt team, and blown out by a mediocre Oklahoma State team on the road. I kept telling everyone our RPI was fine and we’d get stuff together, obviously it was pointless to bring statistics into it then, just like it is now, not many people care to hear about NET/RPI after a loss and/or losing streak. But, for those that aren’t reactionary to one game and want to look at the whole picture, I wanted to post that information. It’s not as bad as some of you guys are making it out to be… still plenty of basketball to play and things can switch either way in a hurry, just like it did after the LSU win. All it takes is 1 good week.
Blu, I looked at the bubble teams in Lunardi’s bracketology.
For those that don’t know he lists them as:
Last 4 Byes
Last 4 In
1st 4 Out
Next 4 Out
Of those 16, 8 lost yesterday. Problem is some that were lower won over some that were higher. So, the loss may have hurt worse than you think, because the teams ahead of us that lost won’t drop below us because we lost, and those that won moved up. So, I wouldn’t be shocked to see his update and us not be mentioned.
I’m talking about at the end of year, it’s a quadrant 2 loss, it’s not going to be considered a bad loss by the committee. And yea, we might not get much bracketolgy love when they update, it’s going to fluctuate over the next few weeks, that’s for sure. I’m not so much worried about where we are right now, I’m projecting where we will be. Before the LSU win we were no where in site among the bubble, and with that win alone jumped all the way into the last 4 team on Jerry Palm’s bracket. We win these next 2 games (which I’m very optimistic about), we’ll take a jump again, Miss St. is a quadrant 1 team right now. Like I said just get to 19 or 20 wins and avoid losing to Texas A&M and Vanderbilt, and we’re in a good position.
You look at the schedule we still have several games that can give us a quality wins (Miss St., Ole Miss, Auburn, Kentucky, and Alabama). If we don’t make the tournament it won’t be because of the South Carolina loss, it would mean we didn’t win any of those games against quality teams we have left. Of those teams I mentioned we need to win 2 of those, plus take care of business against the remaining non-tournament teams in Texas A&M, Mizzou, and Vanderbilt and we’ll be fine. And I actually don’t think Mizzou would be considered a bad loss, if you remember in my “what if scenario” I said it’s possible we could go on a 3 game losing streak and everybody would be on here panicking talking about how bad we are, but we still wouldn’t be out of it. I still hold to that. Things NEVER go as anyone expect, we might lose to Mizzou, go beat Miss St. go win at Auburn, and not lose again this season until Kentucky and win the rest of the games. Something like that wouldn’t surprise me at all.
I get your point about the end of the year, but I’m looking at it as we are down to single digit games left. Don’t have a lot of room for error. A loss right now, even to a Q2 team, when other teams are winning makes it difficult.
Now, I still think we can win at least 5 (I’m thinking 6). That should work.
Blu’s right on… and it’s the same today as it was when the season started, get to 20 and we are in… 19 is sweating but I still think we’d make it… another poster said half of the bubble teams lost last night to each other, it’s going to be that way the rest of the year… a lot of comers and goers every week because they are playing each other…
Problem is, not sure we can get to 19… that’s the big question … UM, Vandy, A&M are best bets, and must win games… then find a way to win 2 from OM, Bama and MSU… those are the deciding games… our bid may come down to winning a first round game (maybe 2) in the SECT…
Every team around/on the bubble is fighting for their bid life every game, who handles the pressure best and wins a majority or their games will advance… 6-2 done deal, 5-3 + 1 done deal, 4- 4 + 1 sweating it out on Sunday…
Bk74 I agree with your assessment,we are on the outside looking in and desperate for a quality win to get some momentum going forward with our young team. A win over Mizzou is not big,but a loss at Mizzou would be huge,not necessarily the NET but in perception big time. WPS
For us to win 20 games with no SECT win, that means we would have finish 11-7 in conference and would at least added 3 wins to our resume over projected tournament teams.
If there’s ever been in SEC team left out of the tournament that’s won at least 20+ games total, 11+ games in conference, and has a top 50 SOS, I can’t find it. I went looked back several years and looked at the SEC teams that won 20+ games, 11+ games in conference, and missed the tournament. There was some teams that met the criteria, however their SOS were all horrible and SEC was only a 3 bid league in those years.
The best resume that matched that in which a team missed the tournament was in 14-15 (Texas A&M). They missed it and was a #2 seed in the NIT. They had an RPI of 67 and SOS of 84. In comparison, right now with us just being 5-5, our NET is 62 and SOS is 41. If we win 6 of our next 8 (which we would have to do in your scenario) our NET would most like be in the 40s with SOS in the 40s. There’s no example in history that shows an SEC team with that type of resume missing the tournament.
If the hogs go 7-1 to close conference play I think they have a chance. Hold serve at home the rest do the way and beat Auburn on their home court. There’s not a chance to beat Kentucky at their place or anywhere else. The hogs are just too young and lack experience. They play like the ball is a hot potato when they have a lead and just can’t hold a lead. They will decide their own tournament fate by what they do these 4 weeks.
The thing that bothers me most is we always seems to get beat in nonconferene by teams we shouldn’t and get into conference play and dig a hole! Why can’t they play better early and sustain.
The Best they can hope for is 8-11 seed and a 1 and done in the dance. If they make it.
I hope CMA scrubs the roster at seasons end and gets some players that can help.
Only a chance! They lost some games they should have won in non conference play and I hate the way we lost to Florida and S Carolina. Maybe in the next few years they can win enough games early and maintain playing well through conference play where they won’t always be on the “bubble” or the outside looking in.
21-10 and 12-6 might not be good enough. Nothing would surprise me!