Vegas: Hogs 75-1 odds to win the NC

According to ESPNEWS crawler, odds from William Hill Sportsbook. I’m not sure our chances are even that good, but I guess it’s nice that Vegas has decided to give us a number rather than throw us in the “field”.

What happens if tourney cancelled?

Same as if tonight’s game had been cancelled. Bets refunded.

So refunded if only 16 team field?

If you’re the 17th team in a 16-team field, it’s the same as if you’re a 69th team in a 68-team field.

Yea well I don’t see it that way. If you make a bet to win it all you kinda shouldn’t have to adjust your thinking of whether you make the dance in a 16 team field vs a 64 team field. That’s kinda changing the rules. It’s basically cancelling 75% of the games and you should get a refund if at least get to make a contingency bet at 75-1

Dude. If there are 4 or 256 teams in the tournament, only one team is going to win it. Everybody else – and the people who bet on them – lose. If you don’t make the tournament, you’re just eliminated faster.

Dude, I guess we shouldn’t hope for a 2 seed because we won’t have a chance.

Point is if I’m making a bet, I want a chance. Right now the rules say they select 68 teams to get that chance. If after the bet, they change the rules and say only 2 or 8 or 16 teams get that chance, I want a refund. If you don’t understand that or what to argue with that, you’re just being difficult. There’s nothing difficult about my point. Why is everything a fight with you on this board.

Certainly understand your point; however, the bet is to win the NC. All teams are playing for that right now. Making the tourney, regardless of the number of teams in it, is just one step along the way.

Sure, I get that, and I understand injuries, and accept that risk, but not changing the rules. It’s like making an over/under bet and then right before the game begins stating we are going to shorten the gameplay time… I guarantee you if right now the NCAA stated only 16 team tournament the odds would probably change from 75-1 to 150-1. That’s my point.

You can look at it as a two-part bet: Betting on the team, any team, to (a) make the tournament and (b) win it. Honestly, if you bet on any team outside the current top 8 to win the tournament, you’re betting with your heart and not your head. Granted, we have no chance to win the NC if we don’t make the tournament, but if we do our NC chances are still not very good (BPI says 0.5% this morning). And I don’t think that would change significantly if they cut it to 16 teams; we’d be a 4 seed if we made a 16-team field and have to play a Gonzaga or Baylor immediately.

BPI, by the way, says only five teams have more than a 10% chance of winning the NC: Baylor, Gonzaga, Iowa, Houston, Michigan. Four more have better than a 5% chance: Illinois, Villanova, Ohio State, Virginia.

Swine, simple question: If the NCAA came out right now and said the tournament will only consist of 16 teams, do you think AR odds of winning the NCAAT would to stay at 75-1?

Our odds are still 75-1 Wednesday night. Meanwhile Misery is 50-1 and Florida is 60-1. Which may just indicate too many people from those two states who are willing to drown some money on a futures bet.

Not sure I’d lay that bet however there were a few times a couple of months back that I did consider making a Bucs bet to win the SB with nice odds.

Hunt, I feel what you are saying. Currently, bets/odds are based upon a 68 team field. If they change that to 32 or 16 teams, what happens then?

You didn’t answer my question

Not sure. Swine postures he knows it all but simply can’t answer this question or the other one I posed. Not surprising. He attempts to deflect with some silly facts about misery and Florida instead of answering a simple question.

I think you answered your own question, lol. He doesn’t have a clue nor do I.

I think the answer would be the odds would be greater. Worse than 75-1 for sure if only a 16 team field. As a result it’s not a good bet to take now, with the unknown, unless you get a refund. That’s the simple answer to all of this. You don’t take a bet and change the rules unless the bet is purposely taking into account the rules may change. I may just call Vegas and find out. Just figured Swine would know the answer.

Absolutely, if it was only a 16 team field, I don’t know that winning out would get us in. Maybe but that’s a stretch.