There are three 1 seed vs 8/9 seed games tomorrow. These are the current game odds:
Hogs/Kansas - Hogs +3 (Caesars) and Hogs +3.5 (MGM)
Aub/Houston - Aub +5.5 (both)
Maryland/Bama - MD +8.5 (MGM) and MD +9 (caesars)
If Auburn takes care of the ball
They should beat Houston. I hate Lying Bruce but Houston is without 2 studs that they have depended on all season.
We can definitely win this game. There’s a lot of truth to the idea that guards win you tournament games in March. We’ve got some really good ones who can not only score but are really bad matchups on defense for a lot of teams. That’s not to take away anything from Kansas. I saw them play a little bit earlier in the season and they look like a #1 seed to me.
But…
This Arkansas team reminds me a little bit of my 1998-99 NY Knicks. They barely made the playoffs that year and were an 8 seed. But, that was a bit misleading. No one looked at that team and thought it was an 8th-seed team in terms of talent–more like a top 4 team. They ran through the playoffs and made it to the finals only to run into the Spurs and one of my favorite players in David Robinson–and some young guy who turned out to be pretty good, if I recall: Tim Duncan.
I think Arkansas is a bit like that Knicks team. We see the cracks and flaws because we watch every minute of them. But, the rest of the nation, including Vegas, is not so much interested in the flaws and cracks; they see the talent, the potential, the really good team defense, and some lengthy guards who pose problems at both ends of the court.
If I’m Kansas, I’m genuinely worried. This is a terrible matchup for them–one that certainly doesn’t SEEM like an 8 vs 1 seed.
Looking forward to a good game.
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Very well said.
But in the end +3 is +3.
If only …
This season may go down in a similar fashion to '41 But for an automobile mishap, the Razorbacks would have another final four victory and perhaps another national championship.
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Isn’t +3 basically a coin toss on a neutral floor? I’m genuinely asking. I’m not much of a betting man or a Vegas head, so I’m willing to admit being wrong and learning.
No. This is a neutral floor. We would be +6 at Kansas and a pick’em on our home floor. It’s just that +3 is generally lower than normal for a 1-seed vs an 8 or 9 seed in the NCAA tourney.
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Good to know. I appreciate the information. Thanks.
The 3+ could reflect a combination of multiple factors starting with Des Moines’ location 3 and1/2 hours closer to Lawrence than Fayetteville; Kansas fans having an earlier understanding of going to Des Moines, Arkansas’s seed with a particular set of circumstances (3 5 stars, 2 key injuries, up and down season, NSJ back, etc) and Kansas’ #1 seed status offset by Bill Self uncertain status.
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Kansas (-4) was the consensus opening number, bookies FEAR getting SIDED, then they possibly get hit. Public perception is a part of the line. The line has barely moved, I’m seeing -3.5 pretty much everywhere. So the Bookies did a pretty good job, but who will cover / win for ONE GAME, means NADA. Money line has Kansas a concensus (-165), 62.5 % probability they win the game, over the long run, not 1 game. So they win 6 outa 10 times, they still lose 4.
Arizona (-1500) v Princeton, Arizona wins 9 outa 10 times. 
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Arizona (-1500) v Princeton, Arizona wins 9 outa 10 times.
Explain to me that logic please
I get the Ariz fav and the need to bet 1500 to win 1,000 but the 9 out of 10?
The Athletic’s model says Hogs have a 32% chance of beating the Prairie Chickens. Pomeroy gives us an even better chance, 38%. Warren Nolan is in between, 33%.
It’s called MATH, not logic. Implied probability. -1500 is actually a 93.75% win percentage. The other side of that is, Princeton was bet down to roughly +850. Opened about +1250. The books get the best of the odds, don’t give fair odds on the Money Line to the DOG.
The athletic says Kansas won’t miss a ton of shots to help us like Illinois did. However looking at last years game vs number one Gonzaga they also missed a ton three pointers, a ton, and just maybe it has something to do with our defense? It will take our best effort of the year, but Nick is an elite athlete and perimeter defender that we haven’t had fully integrated in our team defense yet this year. We are due for our first complete game. Hey we are allowed to talk about still having unreached potential because we are still dancing. Let’s reach it
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Kansas defense is typically gonna force turnovers against a team that sometimes forces things.
The key will be how Arkansas rebounds. The defensive rebounding was off the charts good against Illinois. Another game like that is necessary.
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If the Hogs can stay in motion on offense with good crisp passing we can beat Kansas and anyone else in the field. At times we played with more motion against Illinois than we have all year and you could tell Muss had injected some plays to keep us moving. Hoping to maybe see our best outing today of the season!! WPS