Updating ESPN FPI projection for the season - post Aggie win

Using the same logic as my pre-season predictions, updated ESPN FPI ratings project us to finish at 8.3 wins.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/team/fpi/_/id/8/arkansas-razorbacks

But are favored in 5 of the remaining 8

Would be 9 wins

Anything above 6 wins this season is a miracle. What we have witnessed on the field of one simple thing. WORK.
The coaching has been spot on and the players have bought in. They simply show up and leave everything they have on the field.
While 9 wins wouldn’t surprise me I still know there’s a long way to go. 1 game at a time and keep calling the hogs!

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A doctor that doesn’t understand probability and statistics? Better repeat that experimental design class, doc. :wink:

Re-read the link to my original post, in the OP of this thread, for the explanation and methodology.

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I understand the methodology quite well

Just pointing out that we are favored in 5 of the remaining games, by this analysis, at this point.

It was not to contradict the 8.3, or your personal prediction.

BTW, there is a 100% chance anything perceived as a disagreement with Wiz (which this was not), will result in a sharp rebuttal
:wink:

FWIW, which is zero, Saturday Down South is now predicting we go 9-3.

A couple of things.

First - yes, you are right. I know my responses are often viewed more harshly than intended. But I would point out that where I am usually the most resolute and less yielding in my responses involve factual information - not subject to ambiguity or subjective interpretation. In issues of opinion or speculation, I think you will find I’m much more open minded and less “confrontative”. (Upon reflection, there is one other type of post that often “gets my Irish up”; and that’s when someone accuses me of saying something or making a case that I did not. I’m always going to correct those mistakes).

As to the issue at hand, I will remind that saying someone is “the favorite” in a game is far from a prediction that they WILL win. A team may be a 2 point betting favorite, or be assigned a 55% chance of winning each of their 12 games in a season, but that does not mean the issuer of those odds/percentages is predicting that they will win all of the games and end up 12-0. In fact, they would be forecasting 6.6 wins for the season. This is a common misunderstanding that most people (not saying you) make.

So, the fact that our current FPI odds of winning may be greater than 50% for 5 of the games remaining on our schedule does not predict that we end up with 9 wins. That is the point I was making with your comment.

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