Tournament comment of interest

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Cut that list in half. 12 teams don’t have chance. The bottom six of that list no chance. An 8 seed absolutely not. If Arkansas goes on a 4 game winning streak right now and gets a 5 seed I’ll give us a chance to get to the final four; if we win out and win the sec then I’ll say anything’s possible

We will have played four of those teams in games that count and scrimmaged Texas. We’ve also played Baylor in non-conference, plus the rest of the SEC schedule. We’ve certainly played a tough enough schedule to justify the high Net and get us ready for the Big Dance.

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I think basically that tweet is saying you have to be good defensively in the metrics to have a chance. IIRC every recent natty was won by a team with a top 25 defensive rating. Gonzaga, Arizona and Baylor all lack that, and that’s why they aren’t on that list. Texas is 26th on Pomeroy’s defensive efficiency but that’s close enough. UConn is 23rd, the rest are top 20 (we’re 10th even after getting torched in the second half by that team that shall not be named).

I looked at the thread after that tweet. He didn’t specify which metrics he used, although defense and adjusted efficiency margin are two of them. He also mentioned specifically that he wouldn’t pick the Hogs to win it all but they’re not far from that, especially after NSJ’s return.

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So UNC was an 8 seed last year and led the Championship Game by 15 at the half but you say “an 8 seed absolutely not”?


Is it likely that we could win? Absolutely not

Do we have a team that could win it? Absolutely Yes

The tournament is about defense and guard play. We definitely have both. I am not expecting us to win…but I am expecting us to be one hell of a tough out that no one wants to play in the tournament and that includes any and all #1 seeds.

I would be happy to win out the regular season, but not sure I would also want to win the SECT on top of that. To get back to the Elite Eight, that would mean winning like 8-10 games in a row and that’s a big ask. What is the longest win streak to end the season by a recent NCAAT champ?

Let’s see. Kansas lost to TCU on March 1, then ran the table, 11-0.
Bayluh went 13-0 to end the 2021 season. Of course the Zags had won 31 straight before Bayluh blew them out in the NCG.
UVa lost in the ACC semis in 2019.
Nova ran off 11 straight in 2018.
UNC lost in the ACC semis in 2017
Nova lost in the Big East final in 2016.

Will anyone ever go unbeaten and win the NC again? Nobody has gotten closer than the Zags in a long time. UNLV lost in the '91 Final Four to Dook. Wichita State didn’t even get to the Sweet 16 in 2014. Kentucky lost in the Final Four to Wisconsin in '15. Indiana State was unbeaten until Michigan State ran them out of Salt Lake City in '79. Rutgers was also unbeaten entering the Final Four in '76, the last time a team ran the table (Indiana 32-0). With extended schedules now and a larger tournament, you’d probably have to go 40-0 to win the title if a pandemic doesn’t get in the way.

Here’s a good trivia question: How many teams have finished the season undefeated and didn’t win the NC? (The answer is not zero)

Thanks for looking that up, Jeff. So 3 of last 6 champs lost in their conference tournaments. I just don’t see this team reeling off a dozen or so wins in a row.

I would agree. But then there’s the lottery argument. The chance that you are gonna buy the winning lottery ticket is very low. The chance SOMEBODY is going to buy the winning ticket is decently high. And somebody’s going to hit the lottery of winning six straight in March and April, as opposed to a lottery where it may take a few weeks for someone to hit the jackpot. Might as well be us with that winning ticket.

By the way, if we run the table starting tonight, it would be 12-0, since I don’t see any way we get a top-4 seed in Nashville.

I’d have to guess a team that didn’t get invited to the NCAAT for whatever reason, or before there was an NCAAT.

You would be correct here, and it was within our lifetime.

Did the same team almost go undefeated again and win the natty the next year?

Yup, that would be your 1973 NC State Wolfpack. Talk about toothless NCAA enforcement; NCS bought David Thompson, served a year of probation and then won the natty with him. The NCAA report, of course, cites violations involving unidentified student-athletes; at least one of those had initials DT.

Here’s that report:

Also of note: the last game the 74 Pack played outside the state of North Carolina was Feb. 26. The ACC tournament was in Greensboro, the regional was on their home floor in Raleigh and the Final Four was back in Greensboro.

Hasn’t happened since the year I was born. Not gonna happe this year. I’d bet a lot on that. I hope the hogs get a 4-5 seed. But also I’d just be be thrilled with making it to the second weekend of March madness again. Or winning the sec tourney. Every game is our championship game from here on out. I wish I was more excited about Nick Smith and a deep deep run at the moment, but regardless I want to see Devo and Kamani get an opportunity to contribute to a postseason

The thing is, if you’re gonna win the thing, at some point you HAVE to beat a !, 2 or 3 seed. Look at last year…we were a 4 and ended up playing Gonzaga in the 3rd game.

Thing is, if you are an 8/9 and meet #1, you have the chance to take them out and then you have their schedule going forward! I.E., you would likely meet a 4/5 seed to get into the Elite 8 (but maybe an upstart 12 or 13 who had sprung an upset).

Would I rather be a 7 than an 8 or 9? Yes. But once you’re in the Dance, pretty much everyone after the first round is a tough, tough game, regardless of where you are seeded.


I think this team needs more games to fully get Nick into the framework of what Muss wants to do. I also think they are almost there. What ever they end up being seeded…they will be underrated and no one that has a better seed will want any part of them. The other way to look at it is no #1 seed wants the Hogs in their bracket.

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