My personal opinion is it will take an amazing run through the tournament to get a top 8 seed. Regardless of our ranking, we are playing poorly at the end of the season, 5-5 in our last 10 and have a poor RPI. We just don’t deserve a top 8 seed.
We will host a regional and have a chance to host a super based on how it goes in the field.
They are not playing good baseball. No way have they earned a top 8 and probably not a top 16, but probably will get that. They scored 6 runs last night which should win most games, but they gave up 6 at one time. That should not happen to a good staff. When was the last time the Friday night starter won? It has been awhile.
I have no idea what is wrong other than the pitching has not been up to Arkansas standards. No way do I have any idea why, but the results speak for themselves. We have heard all year what great arms they have. That may be true, but that does not make for great pitching in and of itself.
This team certainly has the ability to make a run. We have seen it before with other fair DVH teams, but it has it to do. No better time to start than today.
You are correct (IMO). I’ve said all along that IF we won 20 SEC games AND wont the SEC West outright, we’d have a 95% chance of being a National seed (top 8), even with an RPI around 20. And, if we’d have won last night (we didn’t) and again today (yet to be seen), that’s just where we would have been.
But now, the best we can do is 19 SEC wins (regular season), MAYBE the outright SEC West title, but more likely a tie at the top, and as good a chance to finish 2nd as to win outright. Plus, even with a win, our RPI will be in the mid-20’s (best guess). Under those circumstances, making a run in Hoover at least to the Championship game is the only realistic route to a National Seed, because to get there we’d have to win a few games over highly ranked (RPI) competition, which would probably get us up to the upper teens in RPI.
At this point, I’m accepting that we’re probably going to be a top 16 seed…maybe 13 or 14…and that’s not all bad. Without doing the research, I’d say as many of our CWS teams have come through wins on the road as have through Baum-Walker. At least we should get a chance to start post-season play at home.
That is, unless we lose today and exit Hoover quickly…in which case we may find ourselves a #2 see in Austin or someplace else.
One other point…I do NOT want to the 16 seed; I’d much rather be a #2 seed anywhere than to be fed to Tennessee at their place in a Super.
After losing yesterday, I don’t see how we could get a top 8 seed even if we win the SEC tournament. This team has too many holes (spotty starting pitchers and lack of hitting with runners in scoring position to name a couple) and I don’t see them miraculously getting fixed.
While we might still eke out a Top 8 seed, I think it’s probably best not to get caught up in that right now. Just let it go.
I hope the baseball team will let it go, too. Just play one game at a time. Go all out to win it, and then play another one.
We’d all love to see the Hogs play in Baum-Walker in both the regional and super regional rounds, but maybe the pressure will be off if we have to play away from home. DVH has had several trips to Omaha by way of the road, and it might actually help this team to get away from the fans and just focus on playing ball.
The main thing is to get a regional. We should still get that. If we win today, that’s almost a certainty. Win 1 or 2 in Hoover & it’s almost a certainty. But as pointed out elsewhere, I don’t want to be the 16th seed & be paired with TN. Don’t want to be 15th & paired with Ore St. I think we’re likely to be better seeded than 15th, though.
Besides, we can still host a Super if the top seed we’re paired with. loses its regional.
Arkansas has been to Omaha three times in this format without hosting a regional.
In 2009 they won the Norman Regional and Tallahassee Super Regional; in 2012 they won the Houston Regional and Waco Super Regional; and in 2015 won the Stillwater Regional before hosting the super regional because of Missouri State’s stadium issue.
The 2004, 2018 and 2019 CWS teams played at Baum for the regional and super regional rounds.
No doubt we hurt ourselves these last 2 games. However, unless Hoover performance really is meaningless, I’d think winning 2 there would guarantee us a regional. Now if we go 1-2 or worse, I’m sure we won’t host.
I’m more worried about the way we’re playing than our record, though. We haven’t looked good since the OM series. It’s not just the SEC games. It took 10 innings to beat UCA and we lost to MO St.