I agree about hosting, but I’m not sold on it being an almost certainty for a national seed with that kind of conference record. The national seeds typically dominate their nonconference games. Arkansas already has five nonconference losses and might have at least one or two more based on the level of competition in the midweek, notably the games against Texas Tech and Missouri State. Once you factor potential losses in the SEC Tournament, you would be looking at a team with somewhere around 16 to 19 losses. A 17-loss Arkansas team hosted last year, but was not in the consideration for a national seed. Each year is obviously different based on RPI, strength of the conference, etc.
Last year’s national seeds had the following records going into the tournament:
Here is the Schluterman/Story Scale:
[quote]Win 2 out of 3 at home and 1 out of 3 on the road. You are 15-15 in Conference and solidly in a regional at the end of the season. Any time you get an extra win in the weekend you are plus 1 and conversely you can go negative. The most you can gain on a weekend is +2 for a road sweep. Conversely, the most you can go negative on a weekend is -2 for a home sweep. Finish the season plus 3 (18-12 in Conference) you are a likely Regional Host. Plus 5 and you are a likely National Seed.