Hogs are 32 1/2 point favorites over TX ST while TN is a 27 1/2 point favorite over Ohio. Based on on-field results and current rankings those lines are way out of whack.
TX St, on the road beat Ohio. TX St is coming in to Fayetteville, rested off of a bye week with 2 weeks preparation. TN is also ranked much higher than the Hogs. The line seemingly makes no sense when comparing known results and rankings. Not only should the lines be reversed, but there should probably be at least 10 points difference in the opposite directions. Perhaps Vegas differs from the pollsters and thinks more of the Hogs than they do TN? Or, maybe corrections will be made as bets start coming in.
Those are both very large lines. I’m hardly an expert on those things, but it seems to me the biggest danger of betting the favorite on those kinds of games is that they’re terribly lopsided & the favorite essentially lays down at the end & allows a couple of late TD’s for the underdog to make the game look closer than it actually was.
This is true, but sometimes the blowout is such a blowout that you’ve already won the bet by halftime. Like that whuppin’ we put on Nicholls State a couple of years back.
Which brings up my Vegas story. I was out there for a medical meeting in October 2006, the weekend we played UL-Monroe at WMS. Since I was staying near a casino with a sports book, I decided to go put down $20 on the Hogs and watch the game at the casino. The line was Hogs -34. Late in the game we were up 44-7, but ULM kicked a field goal on the final play to make it 44-10. That meant the bet was a push. I got my $20 back, but that meaningless field goal cost me $19.