Some perspective on the Hogs' dominant Baseball season (metrics)

Since we’ve been ranked #1 the past 2 plus months, it’s easy to lose perspective on just how dominant our results have been. It’s easy to see when you’re moving up from - say - #24, to #21, then to #19, then to #15, etc. over the course of several weeks. But, when you’re #1, followed by #1, then #1…for weeks on end, the “numbers behind the numbers” are more insightful.

Consider this; as of now (after our first round SECT win over Georgia), we have THE best record in all of Division I (excluding Fairfield, which is the definition of a “one off”, non-comparable exception). We also own THE best Strength of Schedule (SOS), and have compiled it playing almost all of the highest ranked teams away from Baum-Walker (only Florida was at home), which makes it all the more impressive/difficult. And - as much has been made of recently - we have won EVERY 3 game weekend series - in conference and out - this season. Something only 2013 Vandy has done since the SEC went to the current 30 game schedule.

But, to see how far we have removed ourselves from “the field”, look at these two metrics.

Today, we lead the Country in RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) with a mark of .6363 (according to, an accurate estimator of RPI who updates his site in real time). Second in RPI is, coincidentally, tonight’s opponent - Vandy, at .6059. That means the “distance” between our top ranking and Vandy’s 2nd ranking is .0304. If you look behind Vandy, the next team (#3 - Fairfield), their RPI is .6026…a difference of just .0033…about 1/9th the margin we lead #2 Vandy by.

In fact, if you were to go behind Vandy as far as we lead them (in other words, .0304 lower than them), you would find that that gap would include the NEXT 16 TEAMS (in other words, down to the 18th ranked RPI - Florida).

And - by the way - the competition we will be playing from here on in will only be NCAAT teams with high rankings of their own, so our SOS should remain #1.

For an alternative comparison to RPI, let’s also look at the ELO figures, also found on This is a long-time, widely accepted method of ranking teams that has gained wide acceptance over the decades, across multiple sports.

We are #1 in ELO with a current rating of 1819. Number 2 is - again - Vandy, at 1741.7…a difference of 77.3. if we look behind Vandy by that same margin, we arrive at 1663.4. Looking at the list of ELO rankings, note that those rankings would include 15 teams with that rating or higher (#15 being TCU). So, in this case, the gap between #1 (Arkansas) and #2 is the same as the gap between #2 and #15!

I don’t have the time (or detailed info) to be able to compare this margin to past seasons for other teams. But I have watched RPI pretty closely over the years, and it’s usual for the gap between #1 and #2 to be as much as the “next gap” including 3 to 5 teams by seasons end. I don’t recall ever seeing one, at this late stage of the season, as large as the one we currently enjoy.

Obviously, none of this has any bearing on what we do from now through (we hope) a trip to Omaha. Just trying to provide some perspective on just how special the results of this season have been. Even if we don’t come home with the “Big Prize” (and I absolutely hope we do, and think our chances are reasonably good), we should always remember this season for the fun ride it has been.

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Then there are the Iterative Strength Ratings (ISR) done by Boyd Nation at his site Boyd has been doing these for years. We’re #1 there too, and not by a little. We’re at 128.2; Notre Dame is second at 125.6, Vandy is third at 123.7. The gap between us and Vandy there is 4.5. Go 4.5 rating points down from Vandy and you get #14 NC State.

He also does softball ISR; Hogs are fifth there, and a lot closer to the top (UCLA) than #5 on the baseball list.


I went back and looked at the two ISRs. Hogs are 5.7 points behind UCLA in softball. Texass, #5 on the baseball list, is 5.5 points behind Arkansas. So Fallopians are slightly closer.

I am a retired CPA and this is way too many number even for me! :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:

I believe you guys (Wiz and Swine) would be worthy foes in a contest of counting/guessing numbers of jelly beans in a wash tub - as they are scooped out to reduce the numbers. We’d allow you to count each scoop and watch how the level in the tub drops and make subsequent guesses on quantity.


True that. I wouldn’t do a bet on that with either even if they gave me 2:1 odds.

Just so it’s clear, I’m agreeing with Wiz and reinforcing his point with the ISR numbers.

I agree!

I’d rather take Swine & Wiz to Vegas and count cards in black jack. Single or double deck only.

Well on 2nd thought strength of schedule maybe be a little much there.


UPDATE…after tonight’s win over Vandy…

Applying the same process, we now have a gap over #2 equal to the gap between #2 and #22 in RPI…

And between #2 and #20 in ELO…remarkable… and probably historically so.

Boyd has not updated his ISR numbers yet and may not until tomorrow morning.

Well played… :wink:

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Need to really enjoy this season. I don’t think this season will repeat again with the Hogs being ranked #1 for 2 months. And to all those Monday morning qbs that complain that we lost a game because DVH made a move that they did not approve. Just enjoy the ride. Woo Pig Sooie!!!

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