The $64,000 question. Realtime RPI has the Hogs finishing 22-9 (11-7). I have to think that would land us smack dab on the bubble and needing a win or two in the SEC Tournament and rooting against teams like Cal, Ga Tech, Clemson, UGA, TCU and Michigan.
Real Time has Arkansas winning v Bama, @ Mizzou, Vandy, Ole Miss, aTm, and UGA and losing @ LSU, @ SC, @ Auburn and @ UF.
Losing to both LSU and Auburn would be close a death knell IMO, barring beating SC or UF in the SEC Tournament.
The lack of wins against likely tournament teams is the most concerning IMO.
Will we go 7-3 or 8-2 to finish? It might take an 8-2 finish to be safely in before conference tournament. Odds are we can do that. We have a 76% winning pct.
Odds are also decent we can win 2 in a row at least in Nashville.
If we finish worse than that scenario, a whole lot will be left to chance i.e. How many of the wrong teams win automatic bids and effectively reduce the number of projected at large bids. If relying only on a good rpi on your resume for an at large bid, then the rpi usually has to be top 30. Some teams will get at large bids with a worse rpi than us if we don’t have a quality win. There are only 36 total at large bids total. We are right there.
The RPIforecast y’all keep putting, has us with a 20% chance of winning @FL, a 28% chance of winning @ USCe, and the next lowest is a 58% chance of winning @ AUB. Every other game is a minimum 60% chance of winning. We should win more than 22. Now, I haven’t looked this morning, but prior to our game yesterday (they gave us a 28% chance) that’s what it said. You are correct they had us projected at 22-9 when we will be the favorites in all but two remaining games.
We have consistently outperformed realtime’s forecasts all year. They had us losing every road game except at mizzou. I tend to rely on our actual winning percentage so far. 76% and of course we need that to be trending up rather than down when March gets here. So I am hoping for 8-2 instead of 7-3. Anything worse than 7-3 is possible but unlikely unless okie light just really devastated our fragile psyche. That’s not what I’ve seen from the team so far. @minnesota was bad too but we bounce back. We are undefeated on neutral courts.
I said at the beginning of the season, I felt 22-9 and the NIT. I think we will get more than 22 and a trip to the NCAAT. But I asked earlier this year, and I’ll ask the board now, what would be better, finishing 22-9, a trip to the NIT, and making it to the FF of the NIT, or making it to the NCAAT as a one and done? What would y’all consider the better scenario?
Also, earlier this year, I said this team reminds me of Nolan’s second year, you can see the improvements, and you can look at what’s coming in the next few years. This is the year it’ll start the postseason runs.
Granted I know there are a lot of folks on this board that would side with the realtime model factoring in a significant psychological handicap in our abilities to play well on the road :roll:
We will have to watch and see. I wish we didn’t have to win 80% or more to prove them wrong, but it appears that is the bed we have made for our season. Which is still a better position than the majority of sec teams are in right now.
With this year’s Razorback team, the computer projection models are not very accurate. They build road history in, and this Hog team, in SEC conference play, may actually be playing better on the road than at home (in front of sparse crowds). By far, our poorest showing in SEC play was our home game against MS St.
One of our toughest tests in our remaining 10 SEC games will be Bama at BWA Wednesday. Bama is on a roll, winning 4 of 5 and are 6-2 in SEC play. They beat a decent GA team on GA’s home court by 20 points. I believe Bama at home will be a bigger test for us than either @ LSU or @ Auburn. I also worry about an OK St hangover with Bama coming in Wed, especially if it’s our usual poor week-night crowd following a bad loss.
I will say though, Bama did have an awful 20 point loss @ Auburn before the @ GA blow-out. They followed that GA win with a relatively easy win at home against MS St. Maybe they are due for another road loss. Hopefully the way they played in that Auburn loss will more resemble the team Bama brings into BWA Wed night.
I am worried about the Bamma game this week, they are coming and play hard and hit the boards! Better not go to missouri thinking sure win! I worry about Arkansas’s mentality when I see laughing and smiles on our players on the bench 2 different times late 2nd half at OK ST.!!! I mean I know it was a laugher for anyone else, but shouldnt have been for our hogs! So yep I have major doubts now after becoming a true believer after the Vandy game! Got to have an identity that is solid each and every game, not hit and miss!!!
This can be an entertaining team at times, but getting completely blown out at Stillwater leaves doubt that we have the talent and coaching adjustment to finish with more than a .500 record here on out. I would say No.