I get it, that some fill say no, because we won the game. However, Green sure got a great look at a shot that would have forced OT. Inside of 5 seconds, which we were, I’m a big fan of fouling with a 3 point lead. Thoughts?
They had rebounded two missed FTs already. Make one, miss one, rebound it, hit a 3, we lose. Remember we almost forced OT against Baylor off a missed foul shot.
With our luck, we would have given up an and-1 3 pointer if we tried to foul!
I’m generally in favor of fouling in this situation, however, as Swine pointed out they had rebounded a couple of their own missed FT already so I can understand why we didn’t.
I hate to give Pearl credit for anything, but what a great play design for a final shot. And it was executed to perfection. Almost.
I always wonder about that. What are the odds of them making a free throw, then intentionally missing a free throw, then rebounding and making a two to tie versus us not fouling and them just hitting a 3? And what are the odds of them making a free throw, intentionally missing a free throw, and then hitting a 3 to beat us? I really doubt they would even try a 3 to win if they got the rebound, a more likely scenario is rebounding, making a 2, and getting fouled in the process. And then there’s also the possibility of losing by not fouling, they make a 3, and we foul them on the shot and lose that way.
I get what you are saying, though. I don’t know if anyone has calculated the odds of the different scenarios given an average team, but this is not an “average team”, this is Auburn. If they have already gotten 2 offensive rebounds on FTs, you don’t want them on the line. And most coaches say the heck with fouling anyway, just play good defense without fouling intentionally or otherwise. That way the outcome depends a lot on what you can control, playing good defense, and even if you are Stephen Curry you have less than a 50% chance of making a 3 pointer.
By the way, what would you do if you were an opposing coach and Arkansas was down 3 points in the same scenario? We’re not great at hitting 3 pointers. I’d really opt for making us hit one. But then we’re not great at hitting free throws either. Missing the second free throw would be a snap, we’d probably miss that without even trying. But making the first one would be a real issue.
Also, as the play unfolded, who do you foul? The guy who caught the inbounds pass kicked it out to Green immediately; nobody was close enough to foul him. Then there’s the dreaded flagrant/intentional foul. Don’t give the refs a chance to give them two shots AND the ball.
Actually, it would be our luck to make an intentional miss!
I have argued against the foul. I do not want a silly ref deciding it was intentional even if it was executed perfectly.
Yes, there could be an intentional/flagrant foul. But ever seen that in that situation? Not that it couldn’t happen, but players are coached, or should be coached, to not make the foul flagrant, and knowing the foul is intentional I would bet the foul would have to be REALLY flagrant before a ref would call it that.
On a similar topic, let’s say you are on offense down 3 in that same situation. Dean Smith and his protégés Roy Williams and Hubert Davis say don’t call a time out, that that only gives the defense time to set up, just take a 3 in the defensive disorganization. But then a lot of the time the offense looks a little disorganized too, and every time that doesn’t work the coach gets criticized for not calling a time out. I would imagine Dean Smith was right, he was a mathematician and based almost everything he did on studying the odds. And I think in general Nolan agreed, he trusted the players to make the right play based upon their experience and what they learned in practice, don’t just call a timeout in the vain attempt to make you, the coach, look like a genius. Although what Pearl drew up did work, throw it inside first, they did get a pretty open look.
Now if you score with 8-10 seconds left and they have to bring the ball upcourt, I’m fine with fouling around midcourt before they can try a 3. But we didn’t do that, and we played really good defense, which forced Pearl to call time with 3.8 left because they weren’t going to get an open 3. He set up a good play; fortunately Tea Bag Green missed the shot.
Here’s how it works, if he missed we shouldn’t have fouled, if he made it we should have fouled.
I do not believe in fouling while ahead. I just don’t. Play it out.
The key in the final play illustrates my concern with the refs. Auburn set a moving screen at the top of the key that was not called a foul. What refs do at the end of a game cannot be trusted.
This for sure
I comment last night that they got away with an obviously illegal pick on that play
Yes you did doctor. Moving screens are used a lot and seldom called. I watched my nieces (plays for Tulsa) game in the American conference tournament. UCF was using moving screens all night and won easy on lay ups off the screens. It baffled me.
No calls rule the day. Always have.
Hey I watch the replays….what I saw on one of the rebounds was a lack of fundamental basketball. Nobody jumped in front of the free throw shooter…poor execution on our part.
I’m always for fouling in that situation.
I don’t think many coaches agree with me.
The coaches are smart. They don’t trust the officials, nor should they. Stripes are never a good look. I don’t even like little tiny ones on baseball uniforms. Gives me chills. Coaches know how many times their teams mess up inbounds plays and forget to rebound missed free throws.
Yes. And, you also have to look at what’s the worst that can happen if you do foul and if you don’t. If you don’t foul, the worst is OT. If you do foul, the worst outcome is you could lose in regulation! For me, that’s always the deciding factor.
I know what you’re saying and I think the only reason we didn’t is because both of those guys are not exactly sharpshooters. They can get hot but with our length I think we felt comfortable bothering their shot. I have to give credit to Pearl though he ran an absolutely beautiful play and we were slow reacting to it and allowed him to actually get a very good look at it but it was still kind of rushed and I think that was the difference in him missing it.