Here are your key games on Sat and their current conference record:
Ark (10-7) @ Miz (9-8)
Ken (10-7) @ FL (10-7)
SC (7-10) @ Aub (12-5)
UGA (7-10) @ Tenn (12-5)
MSU (9-8) @ LSU (7-10)
Going to assume Aub and Tenn both take care of business at home sat and Aub locks in the #1 seed. The winner of the UK/UF game will get the #3 and the loser will get the #4 if we lose to Miz. If we beat Miz we get the #4.
If we lose and MSU wins, then we both finish 10-8 and they jump us based on H2H. We would also be tied with Miz but own the tiebreaker on them regardless of what happens with Aub and Tenn.
So, the way I see it is that we are the #4 if we win, and either the #5 or #6 if we lose, depending on what MSU does.
Yes, we do not own the tiebreaker vs Missery if they beat us. They are 1-1 against Miss St, and would be 1-1 against us. They’d be 2-2. Mistake would be 2-1, and we’d be 1-2. So if we lose it would be:
Yep, was looking at the 2 team tie breaker but it would be 3 teams tied in that scenario. If we lost but MSU lost and we were in a head to head tie with Miz we would own the tiebreaker in that scenario due to our win against Aub though, correct? (we are both 1-0 vs Tenn but they are 0-1 vs Aub while we are 1-1).
So, win are we are the 4th seed, lose and we are the 5th seed (MSU loses) or the 7th seed (MSU wins).
I don’t think that’s right. If we lose to Missouri we still own the tiebreaker over them. We would be 1-1 vs them. Then the next step is they go by record vs the top teams. Which we own wins over Auburn and Tennessee no matter who has the top Missouri only beat Tennessee and lost to Auburn.
I had to go back and look at what he said again, I thought he was talking about a three way tie between us, Mistake, and Missery. I haven’t looked enough to see if it’s between just us and Missery, who has the tiebreaker. I’d assume it’d be us since we are 1-1 against AUB and 1-0 against TN. Not sure what Missery’s record against them is.
Still, me personally I’d rather be either the 4 seed, playing FL on a 24 hour turnaround (I think they’d be fatigued) or the 7 seed playing AUB on Friday.
Edit: Actually, I forgot the FL/KY winner would also be in a tie. If we lose either KY or FL would be the three, and the four. If we win we’d be the four. If we lose, because of KY and FL being tied in that scenario we wouldn’t own the tiebreaker over MO if KY loses on Sat and we’d be 6/7 depending on Mistake. If FL is part of the tie and Mistake loses, I think we’d have the tiebreaker over Missery because of us being 2-1 against AUB and TN compared to Missery 1-1.
So, we can be anywhere from 4th to 7th.
Edit 2: ok, that was confusing. Simply:
We win. We ARE the 4 seed.
If we lose and MSU wins, we ARE the 7th seed.
If we lose and MSU loses, and FL wins we ARE the 6th seed.
If we lose and MSU loses, and FL loses we ARE the 5th seed
Now, the question is who are we likely to play as the 4 seed and the 6th seed? Those are probably the 2 most likely scenarios. MSU is going to have their hands full on the road against LSU. And Florida has been trending upwards they’ll probably take Kentucky at home.
Maybe correct. But, seems to me people are talking a lot about H2H. What we should actually consider is the distinct possibility of a 3 (or more) way tie.
That could happen in a few different ways. If it does, here is the tiebreaker:
Best winning percentage of games played among the tied teams (Example: Team A is 3-1, Team B is 2-2 and Team C is 1-3 - Team A would be seeded highest, Team B second-highest and Team C lowest of the three).
Best winning percentage of the tied teams versus the No. 1 seed (and proceed- ing through the No. 14 seed, if necessary).
If two teams remain, coin flip by the Commissioner.
If three or more teams remain, draw by the Commissioner.
So, because we haven’t fared well against potentially tied teams, my guess is the 3-way tiebreaker would not help us.
But, I don’t know enough about the other tied teams to know for sure.
If, for example, the other tied teams had the same bad record against tied teams, it would go to win % against #1 seed. We are 2-0 versus the potential number 1 seeds.
I’m thinking that in the event of a 3-way tie, the records against each other are used to determine which team comes out on top. But I believe you then go back to the starting point to break the tie between the remaining two, which would be head-to-head, then record against top team and on down.
Think about this scenario. Arkansas, Missouri, and Ms State are each 10-8 at end of season, tied for 5th place. Let’s just say schedules were slightly different. We lost to Ms State once, but beat Missouri in our only meeting. Missouri beat Ms State twice. Missouri would be 2-1, Arkansas 1-1, and Ms State 1-2. Missouri goes thru as the 5, but I don’t think we go as the 6. I think that goes to Ms State by virtue of their win against us once Missouri has been removed from the tie.
I actually have the correct post above. Missouri and us play a second game Saturday. That changes the outcome. Also, it would not be a three way tie between us, MO, and Miss St. it would be a 4 way tie because the loser of KY/FL would also be 10-8.
The KY/FL game (if we lose) also affects the seedings of Miss St, Missouri, and us because of how many times they’ve played each other. For example Missouri is 1-1 vs KY and 0-1 vs FL
I realize that game adds another 10-8 team to the mix. My comment was a “what-if” scenario because KY and FL would be first in the 4-team tiebreaker, which I believe then reverts to a subsequent 3-team tiebreaker.
There is a statement in the secsports.com rules that says “until the tie is broken”. The ties are broken when the team with the best record amongst all tied teams is determined. Then, it reverts to a 3-team tie. When the team with the best record amongst those three is determined, it reverts to a 2-team tie. Then the 2-team tiebreaker takes effect.
My scenario was to illustrate how I interpret the rule and it’s intent to keep a team that has a winning head-to-head record with a tied team from finishing lower. Teams are removed one-by-one from the tiebreaker. It would make sense that way as well as the league no longer plays a balance schedule.
If we played it the way we should (IMO) and do the divisions like football, then #1 from the East would be Tennessee, #2 would be the winner of the UK/UF game. On the west side, #1 would be Auburn and #2 would be us if we won and maybe even if we lost if MSU lost. I liked the division play better than the current system. At least everyone on each side played a balanced schedule. I know they changed it during a time when the West was weak, but we didn’t change it in football during all those years the East was weak.
Yes, I saw the “until the tie is broken” but also posted above is the links to the actual SEC tiebreaker scenario. It actually shows how a three team tie is resolved. FL/KY loser would be the 4 seed, the winner of that game determines who is 5/6 seed. If MSU wins, we would be the 7th seed.
Until the tie is broken means this:
Miss St loses, FL loses, We lose. FL, MO, and Us would be 10-8. FL owns the tiebreaker among three teams, but both us and MO would be 1-2 against the other two teams. That means we go to tiebreaker number two (which we win because we are 2-1 against AUB and TN, if KY wins Missery has the tiebreaker). However, if we were still tied it would go to Commissioner coin flip.
It does not reset to a two team scenario if FL/KY wins the three team tiebreak.
I’m not being rude or argumentative but people are reading way too much into this. My Edit 2 That Blu quoted is the scenario. There isn’t any other way. The tiebreaker scenarios do not change because FL has the 1st one. It doesn’t reset.