. . . that we can win the SEC West Championship. That would require us to sweep the Aggies and their place, and for MSU to beat LSU 2 out of 3. Any other result leaves us somewhere between 2nd and 4th in the West.
We are 16-10 (because of the Tenn rain-out). If we win out, we’d be 19-10. MSU is currently 17-10, while LSU is 18-9. If either sweeps (MSU would be 20-10 if they sweep, LSU would be 21-9 if they win all 3), we lose out. If LSU wins 2, they’d be 20-10 and we’d be sandwiched between them and a 18-12 MSU.
But if MSU wins 2 of 3, then they both finish at 19-11, a half game behind us.
Meanwhile, 19-8 Florida and 18-9 Kentucky duke it out for the SEC East crown. No matter what happens in that series, we cannot prevail over whoever comes out on top. One of them has to finish 20-10 or better. So, there is no way remaining for us to win the overall regular season SEC Championship.
But there is still a solid hope of hosting. If we win 2 of 3 at A&M, we should end up in the top 15-16 RPI, and depending how the rest falls out, we’d definitely be in the mix to host. MSU’s RPI has now dropped to 24th (poor Auburn, who looked like a lock to host just 2 weeks ago, is now at 45 in the RPI, so their hosting hopes are gone), so unless they catch LSU, we may be ahead of them in the pecking order of non-SEC Division Champions who merit strong consideration. Were we to sweep the Aggies, I think we host regardless - though you never know for sure until they announce the brackets.
So, there is still ample motivation for these Hogs to take care of business in College Station, even though it won’t be easy.
As far as hosting, it might be to our advantage to finish second to LSU.
I know an SEC division champ certainly should host, no questions asked. But I think LSU hosts no matter what. NCAA loves them. As Rick said in the radio yesterday, they host if they’re 2-20. And if MS ST beats them in a series I can see them getting a host too. Probably in that scenario the SEC gets five.
I remember several years ago both MSU and USC got hosts, and we did not, even though we beat them both AND finished ahead of them in the SEC standings.
It was a good weekend for Arkansas. It won its series and Mississippi State lost its series.
If that happens again next week - and there is a good chance it could happen with MSU playing LSU - then I like the Razorbacks’ chances of hosting a regional. I think the fourth SEC regional is between Arkansas and MSU. The Razorbacks’ series sweep in March could be big in the committee’s eyes.