Time to go on record with a season prediction. Using the same simple “sum up the individual game win probabilities” model that has served me so well over the years . . .
Florida A&M 85%
TCU 50%
Texas A&M 50%
NM State 95% @S. Carolina 40% @Alabama 20%
Auburn 35%
@ Ole Miss 55%
Coastal Carolina 95%
@ LSU 40%
Miss St. 60% Mizzou 65%
TOTAL 6.90
So, that comes out to[color=#BF0000] 7-5[/color] . . . (not counting Bowl) . . . which sounds about right to me anyhow.
I think CBB is way overdue for things to come together on the Hill. I think our senior QB, talented young receivers, 3 good running backs, and improved O-line will lead us to three close but significant (come from behind late) wins (TCU, A&M, & SC) and we will be undefeated and in the top 10 going to Bama. I expect a respectable loss there and I expect us to upset Auburn on the Hill to go back up into the top 15. We will then lose to LSU and MissState to finish 9-3, tied for third in the SEC-West, and ranked 18th at the end of the season. JMVVVVVHO.
And the Citadel . . . plus Appalachian State over Michigan, etc.
I wouldn’t argue if someone put 90 or even 95% for this game. It is a game we should, on paper, win 10 out of 10 times. But, NO game is 100%. And then, throw in that is our opener, and the debut of a brand new defensive scheme (never a positive for us, early in the season). Add in that the opponent has a game (a win, no less) under their belt, which is always an advantage (relatively speaking) when playing a team that has not yet played a game.
Also, keep in mind that when doing this type of a projection, being “off” a little in one game doesn’t move the needle on the season very much. For example, if I had said we had a 100% chance of winning that Florida A&M game (instead o 85%). my total for the season would be 7.05 instead of 6.90 - still projecting a 7-5 record.
W - Florida A&M
W - TCU
W - Texas A&M
W - NM State
W - @S. Carolina
L - @Alabama
L - Auburn
W - @ Ole Miss
W - Coastal Carolina
L - @ LSU
W - Miss St.
W - Mizzou
Gentry, I am of the same mind on each of your picks.
9-3.
We will likely know with the TCU game, followed by
the A&M game. If we are 3-0, we will be 5-0
when we face Bama.
For once, I agree with Harry King, dad of the good dude Petey King. 7-5 in the regular season. Except for the 3 cupcakes, we face 9 teams about as good or better than we are. I think we beat State and Ole Miss( we bettah).
I think we squeak by Missouri and maybe Texas A+M or South Carolina. I will go with beating the Aggies since we are 5 years overdue. I can’t stand those ugly maroon uniforms. I think we lose to Nickabama, LSU, South Carolina, Auburn, and TCU. I will have to see our defense play better before I pick us to beat the offensive-minded Horned Frogs. We do seem to have the Frogs’s number, however.
It makes more sense to pick your wins by those probabilities than an individual game, however. 7-5 but I really don’t know who we will beat or lose to. We just feel like a 7-5 team, to me.
The ULM game wasn’t a 3 of 20 type game. It happened in a perfect storm. We had an interim coaching staff & a team in disarray. Even with that we’d have won if we hadn’t had 3 bad injuries during that game. All we had to do was run the ball in the 4th qtr instead of forcing passes that an unprepared Brandon Allen couldn’t complete. Even then we lost in OT to an unusally good ULM team–that went downhill when they lost their QB & suffered a lot injuries a bit later in the season.
The Citadel game 20 years earlier was something of the same thing. That Citadel team won about 9 games that year, too.
So, yeah, those games prove weird things can happen in football these days, this game shouldn’t be in the same category of those games. I’d give us something along the lines of 95% winning.
As I’ve gotten, uh, more experienced, I’m less and less willing to venture this kind of projection. Not only do I not know as much about us as I once did, but I know next to nothing about our 12 opponents. The pundits seem to think we’re a 6-6/7-5 type team. Do they have a clue? Dunno.
Having said that, if we can squeak out an 8-win regular season I think most of our fans would be thrilled; going 6-6 BB’s seat would get warm. It’s really not a huge difference between 6-6 and 8-4 either
I expect more of the same this year. Looking at the schedule I personally think we should win 8-9 games. But, every year CBB manages to blow 1-2 games from either cupcakes or blown leads. Thus, I expect it to happen again.
I hear the coach talk and reporting of improvement along the OL, Defense, (Safeties) and tackling. I personally will take the wait and see approach, as I heard much of the same last year, (not including OL). I do think the OL and Defense will be improved, seeing they couldn’t get much worse. The tackling and Safeties, I’m not to confident in. Maybe this is the season CBB puts t all together, I sure hope so. This state and Fanbase needs a season to be proud of! Let’s go hogs, Woo pig.
I think we might be a better team than last year, but I’m not so sure we’ll be enough better against our competition to disagree with a 7-5 prediction. I’m thinking either 7-5 or 8-4. I believe we have a slightly better than 40% chance of beating SC. Not sure it’s 50%, but could be. I also think we have slightly better than 50% chance against A&M. They lost a lot of players off last year’s team–and I think we’ll be better than we were last year. But like Wiz says, that doesn’t change the bottom line much. It does make 8-4 about as likely as 7-5.
it is discouraging to hear all the pundits predict 7 and 5… year 5 we should be better than that. we better be is my opinion.
I’m going to be a bit more optimistic…
only one i have little to no hope on is Alabama.
i think we beat someone we are not favored against.
all the non conference games we win, 4 and 0 tcu game we should win on name alone. but the tcu and aggie games are critical
we finally beat the aggies, 5 and 0
we beat south carolina and ole miss on the road 7-0
we beat mississippi state and missouri at home 9 and 0
we lost to alabama 9 - 1
we lose to auburn maybe 9 -2
lsu, will be very very close ill call it a loss 9-3
that is the record we should have had last year.
no injuries, get lucky and hedland kicks a game winner or two, possibly 11-1
we get unlucky, injuries, defense is as bad as last year, could be 6 and 6 or 7 and 5.
Like nearly everyone else, go with 8-3 to 7-4. Will the Oline block this yr? Will we play defense this year? Will this team finally play a full 4 qtrs? Answer those ? and then we will know, but so far, they have not shown that.
9-3 with those 3 losses to Auburn, Alabama and LSU!
If we are lucky enough to stay with any of the 3 teams above the refs will ensure we get beat!
I’ve learned over the years to never doubt the hogs. I just hope the players have enough heart and confidence to play as a team and leave it all out on the field. That was my complaint about the last few years.
Play all 4 quarters ! The last 2 games of the year most of the blame is on the whole coaching staff.
I’m proud we won’t have to watch the no blitz bend no break Rob Smith defense this year and there’s no possible way they are as sorry as last year stopping the run!
Next year we will be starting all over at the QB position so this needs to be a year where Kelly and Storey get some reps in a few games.
[quote=“ColoradoHog”]
Like nearly everyone else, go with 8-3 to 7-4. Will the Oline block this yr? Will we play defense this year? Will this team finally play a full 4 qtrs? Answer those ? and then we will know, but so far, they have not shown that.
[/quote]You’re stuck in 1996, Colorado. We’ve been playing 12 regular season games every season since 2002.
Well Wiz, guess I can’t add or substract. Didn’t even think about it other than the number of Ws. Will try to do better on that. Still seems like a prediction that most are trying. I think last year left such a bad taste in everyones mouth, that we just can’t be too far into the KoolAide. Check back after TCU and A&M for that.
