RPI watching all season is shaping up to be more fun than it has been in decades. I check that realtime daily. I’ll post daily updates and obligatory opinion commentary here. All can use this thread to share other websites’ RPI projections here too.
Realtime has us up ranked at 15… projecting 22 regular season wins. That’s protecting home and getting two road wins and both neutral court games. I could easily see that happen and maybe even 4-5 road wins if we start rolling.
We are about to go from haters hatin on that not a tourney team haterade to talking competing for a 4 or 5 seed real soon! Got to beat Florida. F(orget) kevaugn allen and the belk bowl… let’s go! Pack the Bud!
no u don’t need subscription for their daily rpi projection/rankings, it updates once a day. and their projected win/loss results updates daily for every team. can be interesting march madness bracket preparation, watching these teams stock rise and fall. it’s all about getting hot at the right time tho… I project 27+ Ws this year for the hogs. we are going deep bc we got the depth and favorable schedule
You do realize that you said Realtime has us ranked at 15 and projecting 22 wins. You do understand a 22 win team is a bubble team and not a definite NCAAT?
You can look at Realtime RPI for daily updated RPI. You can also look at TeamRankings RPI which also updates daily https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/rpi/
TeamRankings shows us as #16 RPI - if you use that projection (including our SOS) then we line up as the 42nd team of 68 teams taken for the tournament making us a #11 seed (according to TeamRankings) - that’s if the regular season and tournaments ended today - there’s a lot of basketball to be played between now and then.
Ya I’ve been saying 20 wins won’t get us in bc our conference is too weak. 21-22 wins will leave it up to a strong showing in sec tourney. Same reason, weak conference, I think we will get more than two road wins tho. We are going to be on a roll by sec tourney time. We will be playing for a top 5 seed not playing for the bubble.
Vanderbilt made it from the SEC last year with 19 wins and South Carolina missed tournament with 24 wins. When you talk about making the tournament, it’s all depending on how that RPI and SOS hold up, not the number of wins. You can be solid in the field at 22 wins or you can be on outside looking in, just depends.
Say our non-conference opponents like Fort Wayne, UT-Arlington, Sam Houston St, Houston, North Dakota St., end up finishing strong and win their conferences, and we have some big wins in conference against a Florida, South Carolina, or a Kentucky, then 22 wins would probably have us very comfortable in the tournament with anywhere from a 6-9 seed. On the contrary say those out of conference teams start to fall off, and we lose to like Mizzou at home or have any drop one of these last non-conference games at home, we could still end up with 22 wins, however have a weak RPI and a couple bad losses. Which may have us on outside looking in.
The good thing right now is it looks like we scheduled well in the non-conference. We just have to keep winning. This Texas game coming up will be a big opportunity to strengthen that resume even more with a win away from BWA.
As I posted last night, Warren Nolan’s site jumped us from #22 to #14 within 20 minutes after the game. We slid a little afterward, but still #16.
Our NC schedule doesn’t have big names, but actually it’s pretty good. We’ve played five top-100 teams already, and have two more before we start SEC play (and Texas is not one of those two). Nolan has us with the #60 SOS.
By the way, Nolan’s site also has Pythagorean expectations for the rest of the year, and it has us 25-6/14-4. If we play to that level, there will be no bubble nervousness in March. (It doesn’t specify which NC game they think we should lose, but a good guess would be @ Okie State). Conference losses? A good guess would be at UK, at Auburn, at Chickens and at Florida, since all except UK are top 20 RPI right now.
You do realize that you are making generalizations that aren’t necessarily true. You do realize that if we have 22 wins, whether we are a bubble team will depend upon many factors. You do realize that those factors will include our RPI, Strength of Schedule, Conference finish,
Road/neutral record and record vs. the RPI Top 50 and Top 100 (as well as merely playing teams that are 200 + in RPI).
You do realize that every year, including 2014 when we finished the regular season with 24 wins and weren’t a bubble team, fans make posts like this suggesting we will have to win 25-26 games to be safe.
You do realize that it (wrongly) happened to USCE last year because they tanked down the stretch, didn’t play anyone in nonconference and had a low RPI.
You do realize that last year Vandy had a 19-13 record,ways 63rd in RPI and 27th in KenPom and got a bid to the NCAAt.
You do realize that so far, although a no-name group, we have played a solid schedule.
You do realize that it isn’t mandatory for you to pee on everyone’s parade.
You do realize that you have to be pretty condescending for ME to think it’s over the top.
Their SEC projections: Kentucky 17-1, SoCar 17-1, Aggies 15-3, Florida 14-4, us 14-4, Misery 14-4, Bama 13-5, Auburn 12-6, Tennessee 12-6, Vandy 12-6, Moo U 11-7, LSU 11-7, Georgia 10-8, Ole Miss 10-8.
Every SEC team is projected with a winning conference record. It does not take a mathematical genius to recognize that this is impossible. There are 126 SEC games in a season. The combined record of all 14 league teams in conference play therefore must be 126-126. Their projections total 180-72.
Their SEC projections: Kentucky 17-1, SoCar 17-1, Aggies 15-3, Florida 14-4, us 14-4, Misery 14-4, Bama 13-5, Auburn 12-6, Tennessee 12-6, Vandy 12-6, Moo U 11-7, LSU 11-7, Georgia 10-8, Ole Miss 10-8.
Every SEC team is projected with a winning conference record. It does not take a mathematical genius to recognize that this is impossible. There are 126 SEC games in a season. The combined record of all 14 league teams in conference play therefore must be 126-126. Their projections total 180-72.
[/quote]mizzou ain’t going 14-4!
You do realize in 2014 we had 26 wins prior to the tournament.
You do realize when your first statement about the Razorbacks is wrong, it makes the rest of your statement incorrect and means you no longer have any validity on this subject.
I hit the substance of your post and you were wrong, but don’t let actual facts get in the way of your opinions.
Now, since you attempt to call me out (by the way you’re always wrong), I’ve posted before:
During the late 80’s, early 90’s, Paul Eels had a member of the selection committee on and asked him what it takes. His response 20 wins, a winning conference record, and a good neutral site, road record.
They now play more games, so the win total goes up. My personal opinion is 23 wins, but the majority of teams with 22/23 wins are bubble teams. AR won 21 was left out, SMU same year won 23 and was left out, they were both bubble teams. Now, there are a few teams, that get in with less than 22/23. NC St the year AR and SMU was left out won 18 and got in, the reason why is they had a road win over Duke (#1). The ACC is considered a good conference, the SEC is not. So, they get more lead way. Vandy, Florida, and KY get benefits because they’ve been relevant for the last ten years.
As for RPI, per Joe Lunardi: They no longer consider RPI, they look at BPI. There currently is NO BPI. It hasn’t been released yet. It won’t until after conference seasons start.
For one thing, your assertion that RPI is no longer considered in the selection process is garbage, and I do not believe Joe Lunardi said anything of the sort. The NCAA INVENTED RPI and they use it in many sports, including baseball and soccer (it helped get our women into the NCAAT last month). BPI is an ESPN invention which may be superior to RPI as a way to evaluate teams, but it has not replaced RPI.
RPI is basically a high powered strength of schedule measure. It’s only 25% your record, tweaked for home/road/neutral, 50% your opponents’ records, and 25% your opponents’ opponents’ records.
Like PIG, you are WRONG, per your own post RPI is listed as an afterthought. Again, don’t let FACTS disprove you.
LUNARDI did say it
Now, READ WHAT I SAID, your own post shows what I said. So, much like PIG, I can tell your someone who argues to argue, especially when it’s me. Just like hi and TREAT you have yet to be right.
How is it for an argument? Better. You make some potentially fair points. And, I seem to remember the Committee saying they wanted to rely more on BPI (and then they rolled it out and it had some serious flaws).
But the point remains, regardless–the computer metrics will play a large factor, so any kind of arbitrary win-total just isn’t going to be employed as a litmus test to get someone on or off of the bubble. It hasn’t been for decades.
But, generally, I just have no desire to debate or discuss this or any other topic with you–someone who makes baseless statements like that I am “always” wrong or who persists in saying my post was factually incorrect regarding our 2014 wins when I clearly wasn’t.
You are what you are. A poster who seems to pride yourself on being the guy who is always going to set anyone straight who has even the slightest bit of positivity toward the Razorbacks.
And, it’s tiresome and uninteresting.
So, back to the ignore list. I’m sure you will have to have the last word, so have at it. The thread speaks for itself.
Show me the link on Lunardi. Until then, you’re just making up stuff. (By the way. I just asked Lunardi that question on Twitter. We’ll see how long it takes him to say you’re wrong.)
I never said, nor is Notorious saying, that RPI is the be-all and end-all of the selection process. It never was, despite media reports to the contrary. NCAA made a good decision a few years ago to hold mock selection committee meetings for the media, so they can see how the sausage is actually made. They consider RPI, and “computer metrics”, and eyeball tests, and a whole lot of other things. Just like the NCAA link said.
In the meantime, pal, you are veering dangerously close to personal attacks here. I think what we have here is someone who can’t handle being proven wrong and lashes out when he gets called out for being wrong. Dial back on the wrath, or you may get put in time out.
