RPI moves up to #5 after Saturday's win

. . . same as our SOS . . .

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018/rpi-live2

Thanks, Dave. That’s a very good sign.

And this morning it sits at #4.

In addition to our own play, it certainly doesn’t hurt that Arizona, Kent State and - ahem - Texas are playing some good ball lately. This is where playing those teams and performing well against them in the early portion of the season will start to pay dividends.

Of course, priority one is always to take care of our own business. But the SOS is what will make the difference between hosting a regional, and being in line to potentially host a Super.

Warren Nolan’s projected final RPI has us #3, behind Florida and Texas Tech. Final projected record is 43-12, 23-7 in the SEC. That would obviously win the West and second in the SEC to Florida’s 25-5.

I still don’t know if I believe that. That would be a 16-3 finish from here. This league is tougher than that.

I think those projections are absurd

As far as those conference records

25-5 conference record for ANYBODY in the SEC???
Crazy

Warren Nolan has reworked the projected RPI tonight.

Florida is still projected as the #1 RPI – but the projected SEC record is 21-9.

We’re still #3 – but our projected SEC record is is 23-7. Which would be an SEC regular season title. That’s probably schedule-driven. We don’t play another top-25 RPI team in the conference until A&M in May.

He picks A&M to finish second in the West, and Vandy to finish second in the East.

<LINK_TEXT text=“http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018/co … erence=SEC”>http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018/conf-prediction?conference=SEC</LINK_TEXT>

15-3 the rest of the way in the SEC? Mercy.

As I noted earlier in the thread, before today’s game, I didn’t think 16-3 was possible. Going 15-3 is only slightly less impossible.

Yes, those projections are to be taken with a large grain of salt.

IIRC, about 3 or 4 weeks ago - maybe right after we swept Kentucky, I think - I looked at those projections and they had us going undefeated the rest of the season (in and out of conference). The problem with these projections is that they are too literal; if a team is rated even slightly ahead of a team they are playing, it is a 100% win in the projection. That’s silly in any sport, but most especially in baseball.

I think you hit the hammer on the head. Basketball, for instance, is much more certain. If we had played Butler 10 times, we might have won three or four. And even then, BPI listed percentages; Butler was a 57% pick, I think. Nobody would have picked Charlotte to beat us in baseball, even with midweek starters on the road. But they did, fairly comfortably.

Here’s how the Swine Projection Index sees the rest of baseball season:

Grambling. W. Even with our history of laying a few Dickey-Stephens eggs.

Chickens/Bama, both at home. We gotta lose a home SEC game at some point, don’t we? I’ll say we go 5-1 against SoCar and Bummer combined, put the loss wherever you want.

MoState. Hmm. They’re good, as usual, and we’ve hit some midweek speed bumps. In Springfield, I’d call it an L; in Baum, I think we win, maybe a walkoff.

@ Moo U. They just took 2 of 3 from the Rebnecks. I’ll say 2-1 good guys.

TTech. Similar to the Texas series, except the Raiders are better. Split.

LSU. The Box has been a house of horrors for us. But this is the worst LSU team in a long time. Still, I’ll believe we win a series at Red Stick when I see it. 1-2.

aTm. Good record. But they’re only 6-5 outside Olsen Field. Call it a 2-1 win.

@ Georgia. Dawgs appear to be for real. A lot will depend on what is riding on the outcome, for either side. Both may be playing for a division title that weekend. Still, I like Knight and Murphy in that series. 2-1.

That would be 15-7/12-6 the rest of the way. Which would put us 39-16/20-10. I still think 20-10 wins the West. I’d love for them to prove me wrong (series win in BR would be a great place to do that) and get 41 or 42 wins before Hoover.