AR at this time is in solid 4th place behind KY, FL, SC. AR’s latest RPI is 30 (Live-rpi.com- These were not updated from last night’s game. But for our purposes will do). The remaining games in order with its RPI’s are: @MO 270, VAN 47, @LSU 132, @ SC 21, MS 64, TAM 89, @ AU 74, @ FL 8, GA 52. Our overall record at this time is 17-5, 6-3. So, what the crystal ball tells us? Reasonable assumption is to put an L next to FL & SC on the road. If we win all the games we suppose to win, who are below us in RPI and standings, we’ll finish 13-5 conf. and 24-7 overall. That gives us a pretty good seat in NCAA. My past experience with AR teams tell me that we have not won the games we suppose to. It is not inconceivable that we may lose at any or all other 3 road games (AU, LSU, MO). Also, home games against VAN, GA, MS, & TAM is not given. We are IN now, but we can play ourselves OUT in these last nine games, if we have another OKST breakdown.
Realtime RPI just updated: http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_353_Men.html
Now has the game at LSU in the W column for the Hogs, predicting a 23-8 (12-6) record. I would take that in a heartbeat.
Five road games left. Should win three, would take two. Mizzou and LSU are really bad. It would take an epic collapse to lose either. Holding serve at home is the bigger issue. Beating Georgia, for instance, which darn near won at Rupp. I’d take 12-6, but would 23-8 be good enough without some wins at Nashville?
Solid sec tourney 4 seed. Meaning one game we are favored and one more crack at Kentucky. I’ll take that. Looking forward to one more opportunity at South Carolina, Florida, and Kentucky. Our team definitely has a chance to go at least 1-3 or better in those.
I’m calling it now: 24-9 or better, and anywhere from an 8 seed to a 4 seed. (24-9 being the 8 seed scenario)
24-7 plus 0-1 in SECT, so 24-8. Stay at a 9 seed or worse.
Which underdogs do you think we could lose to on neutral floor in Nashville? Please don’t say miss st Vandy or Tennessee maybe? Those two would be a bad draw for the home crowd and they are playing well. Still a big advantage to get the top 4 seed bye to quarterfinals. Well it’s only the beginning of February, but I like our position in the standings.
I’ve already saidis multiple times on the 1 million other threads about it, but I’ll say it again. Looking at Ole Miss, with their schedule, they can win 7 of their next 8 (losing to us at BWA). It would put them at 20-10 going into their final game against USCe. A win there would give them a spot on the bubble and the five seed. Our first game as the four would be against them in their second game. A loss wouldn’t hurt us, but a win would get them in.
Now if Ole Miss doesn’t win 7 of 8, then we will probably have another showdown with KY.
Ah yes, we haven’t faced our historical struggles vs ole miss yet this year
They almost beat Baylor right?
Yes, but I’m not looking at that. I am looking at remaining schedules and who I think can beat who. I figured it up before the Okie Light game. The teams we were discussing with a chance to make the NCAAT from the SEC was what I used. Giving those teams wins in games they “should” win and losses against the Top 6 teams on the road, we had the easiest remaining schedule, with only @FL and @ SC as games we “shouldn’t” win. Ole Miss was actually the next easiest. Ga, who both Lunardi and Palm have as a bubble team, had 8 of their last 12 games against the Top 6 teams in our league (5 against the Top 4). That’s why I don’t believe Ga will get in, if they do, they’ll have earned it. Ole Miss, on the other hand, can lose to us and still end up on the bubble going into S. Carolina. A win in that game would (IMO) put them in, with no room for error. Two wins in the SECT (we would be their second game) would lock them in.
Sitting at 17-5 with nine games left is really not bad. The loss to MS ST and Minnesota sting a little! Out of the remaining games I like catching Florida right after they play Kentucky that leads me to think we beat the gators at their house. The trap game aginst Georgia at the BW to end the regular aeason is the one that bothers me most! South Carolina at their place Feb 19 is anyone guess that is the only remaining game I think we may not win. Finish 9 -1 in the remaining games and go 26 - 6. Getting a top 4 seed in the SEC tournament and we need to make the championship game to earn a seed better than 6. Otherwise I look for a 7 seed and barring a complete meltdown the SEC lands 5 Teams in the dance
(KY. SC. FL. AR. TN. ). The hogs can beat anybody in the SEC if they play defense. We need to tighten up the free throws and make an extra effort on rebounding and moving the ball on the offensive end and players moving without the ball! The definition of a good shot needs to be a priority! My thought on KY is a little different than most folks. Camp Cal may come to an end soon. How long do you think their fans will let the NBA exhibition to continue without them winning the whole thing! KY and Cal deserve each other I hope the ships sinks and Cal go down with it.
While prediction as to what may happen over the next 9 games is varied for everyone, you touched on something I would like to emphasize: That is we need to take care of business by playing Defense, Make Free-throws, Rebound, Ball movement on offense, and good shot selection & of course, take care of the ball. Most and above all not show up FLAT(if you know what I mean), intensity and focus. Asking too much? People do it every day; so should we.
What about OM’s schedule makes you think they will approach 7-1? They have:
I would conservatively expect at least 3-4 losses out of those.
Why would you expect that many losses?
Look at the Florida schedule they play KY right before they play us! We should get that win with them coming off the KY game! I think the SC game is the one that be the loss. I say 8 - 1 for the conference schedule that put our hogs at 26 and 6
Win 1 in the SEC tournament and maybe just maybe have a shot at KY would be great. That would be the last time we would have to face Monk!
Winning at least 1 or 2 games in the NCAA tournament would be great to build on for next year!
Well, they’re 13-9, 4-5. OM has lost to 11-10, 3-6 TAMU and UGA (by 18 pts) at home in Oxford. OM won by 4 at 5-16, 0-9 Mizzou that has lost 9 in a row & just lost by 39 at Fla and may go winless in conference.
I would expect OM will lose 2-3 of a group of road games @ Vandy, @Tenn, @Ark and @Bama (3 of which are ahead of OM in the SEC and the other, Vandy, is tied and is usually a tough place to play).
I also think there is a good chance OM will lose to USCe at home. The Gamecocks beat them by 11 in Columbia.
OM is 62nd in the RPI.
There just isn’t much of anything to suggest they will even approach a finish in which they lose 1 remaining game.
Other than just answer a question with a question, do you have anything to back up the opinion that OM will reel off that kind of a finish?
Yes, Vandy is not deep, it’s February they get tired. Tennessee will probably be on a five game winning streak, winning @Miss St tomorrow. They have Georgia next Saturday, they could very realistically (like your doing) overlook Ole Miss because of their current record/standing. They get AUB at home, AUB isn’t as good as once thought, and the LSU at home. No way they lose to LSU. So that gets them to 4-0. I do not think they beat us at BWA. Then they’ll have a chance at a bounce back game against Miss St, who since their loss to KY haven’t been playing as good as we thought earlier. Then they get Missery at Oxford, that’s a gimmie. So, they’re now 6-1. Then they go to Bama, Bama may have a few more losses by then, and Ole Miss will know they HAVE to win. So, that’s 7-1 going into USCe. They’ll know they need to win to have a chance to get in, and USCe will probably have the two seed locked up, so they may not be fully in the game. Plus it’ll be SR day for Ole Miss, no one wants their SR’s to lose on SR Day.
What if say Arkansas won out the rest of the way 26-5 and then takes 3 straight in the SEC tourney and wins. Now at 29-5, how high of seed do you think they give them??? Probably a 4 , while Kentucky would still probably get a 3 ! Wont happen, but man wouldnt be great to see!!!
I looked on the rpiforecast about an hour before you posted this. I actually looked to see what we would move up to. At 29-5 our RPI would be 11, and our SOS would move up to 35 (counting a victory over TN, KY and Florida to win the SECT). I’m not sure what it’d take to get a 4 seed, but I’d assume that’d be close.
Let’s not forget from here on out the gators, cocks, and cats… and maybe someone unexpected in the conference tourney like the vols… will be just as motivated as us to improve their seeding prospects for selection Sunday.
We really need to focus on making the most of every opportunity to improve our obvious weaknesses. We struggled big time with the size of Florida, Kentucky and Minnesota. We have to rebound better consistently. That’s going to take some guys like Moses and Airdrio taking it up another level. And we have struggled with three point defense in those games. And can we do both of those things well without fouling on the road or neutral court. And also can we play with teamwork on offense if we aren’t creating fast break points. The two defensive issues are bigger and are almost a prerequisite for our offense to do anything.
Man how much better would y’all feel about our defense getting tougher every game without a lapse if we had Nolan stomping in his snakeskin boots getting a few technicals? Mike ain’t going to do that, but I hope his ways have everybody hyped up to sledgehammer that ant or whatever. Why not? I really hope to see it in the defense every time. (If anyone is an ant it is mizzou right?)