Regional game 2: TCU vs. Cal

https://twitter.com/baumbastic/status/1134590265136541697

Cal has a great record in the PAC 12. TCU is the team no one wants to play. The winner of this game will be a great challange for our Hogs. If the Hogs win this regional they will have deserved it.

wps

Let’s not go overboard here. TCU was the last team in the NCAAT field and Cal finished a distant fourth in a five-bid league. This is regarded as one of the easier regionals and rightly so. Of course it’s baseball and weird things can happen.

Cal is the #30 rpi team, 15-8 on the road. Not bad; TCU is the #59 rpi team. Two fairly high draws. This is not a chopped liver series.

Nope, not a chopped liver regional. As I stated earlier however, it is a cake walk regional. :o

Let’s analyze here. There are 16 hosts, 16 2 seeds and 16 3 seeds. That tells you that Cal is near the bottom of the 2 seeds (you would expect 17-32) and TCU is the absolute dregs of the 3 seeds. The 4 seeds are all small conference champions and CCSU is near the bottom of that list too (180 RPI after today).

RPI of the 3 seeds (current RPI at Warren Nolan; CW denotes automatic bid, everyone else is at-large):
25 Illinois State
30 Florida
33 Fresno State (CW)
34 Nebraska
36 Clemson
37 Michigan
40 Duke
42 Liberty (CW)
43 Southern Miss (CW)
44 Florida State
56 Campbell (CW)
58 TCU
61 Coastal Carolina (CW)
71 Loyola Marymount (CW)
74 Central Michigan (CW)
87 McNeese (CW)

definently can’t give away runs like Cal did for sure.Cal pitcher pitches similarly to Campbell with the great CB but BB too many so far.

Let’s analyze here. There are 16 hosts, 16 2 seeds and 16 3 seeds. That tells you that Cal is near the bottom of the 2 seeds (you would expect 17-32) and TCU is the absolute dregs of the 3 seeds. The 4 seeds are all small conference champions and CCSU is near the bottom of that list too (180 RPI after today).

[/quote]Ok. As mentioned, let’s look at this empirically.

If you add the RPI #’s from Nolan this week. Arkansas’ region rates a point total of “279” that’s the fourth “highest count”, following GT (319), UCLA (308), and MSU (300). Similarly, the rpi point count of the 2 and 3 teams yields “89” for Arkansas. That again is 4th highest next to Vandy (110), UCLA (109), and MSU (90). So, while the gods are saying the Hogs are the fifth seed, our initial series grades us as the 4 seed. Georgia rates an “87”, GT is close at “76”, and LSU at a slightly higher “78”. Still, we’re not playing chopped liver and the counts line up closely with the other upper seeds.

Clearly the Ole Miss regional is a bit tougher (their 2-3’s total “66”), but if we win we get to play them.

TCU gets its starter out after 4 innings with a 3-1 lead. Interesting. Sounds like they’re planning to bring him back later in the regional if needed, which is kinda what we did with Noland. Cal’s starter is still in there top 6.

we going to playing TCU and based on what I have seen we are going to have our hands full.Cal has helped them some but they put some very good swings up agianst a Pitcher who totally Dominated UCLA,Stanford And Ariz st… and their # 2 Pitcher is mowed down a team that has more Hrs as we do and same Team BA
I have never seen their Ace pitcher throw but he suppposed to go as high as the #7 pick i looked at his games and he surprisingly has had 2-3 bad outings Kansas hammered him for 7 runs in about 2-3 inn OKl state got 5 off him in Big 12 tournament but he also good enough to to shut out Texas Tech on 5 hits and K 13 so we better hope Campbell is razor sharp(hasn’t been lately) or our bats all of a sudden can hit arguably the best LH in the country…They have as high a team BA as we do and they look like based on what I saw tonight.Hopefully our crowd can rattle him some and we can get ahead early and alllow Zay to relax and throw his game.

TCU was 32-26 overall and 11-13 in the Big 12.

The Horned Frogs will throw their ace lefty Nick Lodolo, the No. 8 prospect in this year’s draft per MLB. com.

He has 125 Ks in 95 innings and only 21 walks.

But he is also just 6-5.

Isaiah Campbell is 10-1, has a lower ERA and has 100 strikeouts in 98 innings and only 18 walks.

The Horned Frogs might beat Arkansas, but y’all are making TCU out to be the 1927 Yankees or the 1975 Reds.

Good to know we were better than the 1927 Yankees. Always felt like we could have taken the 75 Reds. :smiley:

Seriously, though, you were right. Lodolo was good through 3 innings, but got lucky several times after that. It was apparent once we got him into a high pitch count he couldn’t go deep into the game. TCU didn’t lose all those games because they’re great. They’re a good team, but we’re a better one. We should win tomorrow night, too. I expect we’ll face TCU again, but won’t face Lodolo.

Campbell was the difference. As noted he was brilliant and fun to watch against one of the Big 12s best hitting teams.

His going 8 innings really helped our Bull Pen.