Reality Check!

Our post-season hopes haven’t changed that much if those experts were right anyways, who said 24 wins wouldn’t be enough without beating a top 25 team.

We had not proven we are able to beat a good team, still haven’t. There is going to be a lot of good teams to compare us against on the bubble. We need to prove we belong, we haven’t. But we have picked up a lot of Ws and built a decent resume. All that’s lacking is a noteworthy win. We could afford two more losses if we get a win vs one of our remaining top 25 opponents. Our path is basically the same still.

The “experts” still weren’t right without the Mizzou loss. Numbers just didn’t add up for us not to make it with 24 wins if we would have avoided this bad loss. And it’s still possible to make it with 23. But, in that 23 I believe you gotta have a signature win and some of these teams we have wins over like Tennessee have to really get hot as well. Also, would need Missouri to win a couple more games and hopefully getting that RPI under 200.

I could see this scenario…

Vandy - W
@LSU - W
@USCe - W
Ole Miss - W
@Auburn - L
@FL - L
Georgia - W

If the season ended like that today, we’d have a 23-8 record, 26 RPI, 62 SOS.

I don’t see it! There better be an attitude change from the players. They did not play today they showed up. They must play with guts and heart. Be in control and avoid turnovers. Too much one on one on offense and did not play as a team. Right now they are not in. And could win out and not get in. That was a historical bad loss!

I don’t think we will lose to AUB, I think we have more of a chance against FL, than SC, but that’s just my opinion. As we saw at Okie Light, I have been wrong

It just depends with Auburn. They are inconsistent, but when they show up to actually play they are tough to beat. Like he really gets them fired up to play their rival Alabama, they’ve beaten them twice now. They also beat a good TCU and Texas Tech team. They only have 1 bad loss on a neutral court to Boston College.

The reason I think we have a better shot to beat USCe is because they like to play a low scoring kinda slowish tempo game. Depending on how the refs call the game, if we can speed them up, we’ll have a chance. Florida is the toughest because they can essentially do what we do with better athletes and more experience. Auburn is the same way. Although we are more experienced than them. I like us in the LSU game, because LSU just doesn’t believe in playing defense.

I can’t speak for those experts, but it seems like their forecast is saying if we aren’t good enough to beat either SC, Florida, or Kentucky in at least four opportunities, then we aren’t likely to get 25 anyways wins unless the rest of the sec just gives up.

That seems to be where we are. Best of the rest. Haven’t proved it vs tournament teams. Nit bound, unless we become good enough quick. We still have at least two chances left.

You have more than 2 opportunities. There’s still 8 games left to play and things can change and so can scenarios like I was saying above. Plus you have the SEC tournament. We see how things change quickly everyday.

As far as the marquee win. It’s still early, that’s why it’s kinda silly to predict who will be a marquee win right now. For example look at Tennessee, 2 weeks ago they were irrelevant, then played themselves into a last 4 out team this week. If they continue to play well, they could end up being a tournament team and be that marquee win. Then you have UT-Arlington, if they catch fire and win their games and run through their tournament, they could play themselves back in position to be a marquee win. Houston is on a 3 game winning streak, they could play themselves into an at large big and being a marquee win. Georgia can do that, Ole Miss can do that, even Vandy RPI is still good enough to have a chance. We see teams come out of no where every year in college basketball for us to say with teams having at least 8 regular season games and conference tournament we only have 2 opportunities. 2 weeks from now things could be completely different than they are now. A lot of basketball left to play.

I agree with you Blu. There are still more than one or two scenarios that could get us in the dance. The main area for concern is our confidence level and intensity level. Not playing hard enough has to be setting off alarm bells for everyone on that team. Manny Should have never came out. Him and Barford are the only guys playing hard. They need to get after their teammates big time. I hope these coaches don’t show any mercy on them tomorrow.

I thought they played well in the second half, we just dug ourselves a little bit too deep in the first half. I seriously think these guys other than Barford and Watkins just underestimated them, thought it would be an easy win. Then they tried to turn it on in the second half and just ran out of time.

Thanks for the optimism Blu. :smiley: I think we’re in very serious trouble for the remainder of the season. I don’t believe that we make the NCAA. The team still has fundamental flaws that haven’t been corrected by CMA. As one poster put it “I’m hoping for the best but expect the worst.” :frowning:

I can understand that position. But, this team has recovered after every set back this year. People thought we were the same old can’t win on the road team after Minnesota, we went on to win 8 straight games after that. People said we weren’t a tournament team after the Mississippi State loss, we responded with a 4 game winning streak. They said we were a bad team after losing to Ok State, we responded with a blowout win over Alabama. Now, question is how will the respond after this loss? We’ll see on Tuesday. I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m not going to throw in the towel on a 17-6 team. I’m mad about the loss, it’s really no reason to loss to Mizzou, but at the same time, teams lose every single day in college basketball they probably shouldn’t have lost to, it’s why they play the games.

is this team good enough to go

isnt that really the issue

not the invitation’
but
the quality

I agree Rzbackangler, this late in the season to lose against a 5 win team is a BAD BAD loss and will come back to pop the bubble that we will most definitly be on with a couple losses if this team doesnt SNAP out of the FUNK they get in! Players like Kingsley Thompkins, and Beard looked half speed with almost in a mood look to them! Were they sick??? One thing for sure, this loss will either ignite this team or it is the beginning of what we have come to all expect and be another late season collapse cause everyone else improves and we always seem to already have peaked and at times look bored or NO ENERGY too many times! I can truly see where critics of MA get it from! The last 6 minutes was horrible horrible coaching and someone tell me any any team out there who has their teams high scorer play the amount of minutes Hannahs gets, unreal, with all the players who take nights off!!!

I can easily see a USC, Florida, Auburn, and Georgia loss with this teams soft play as of late with the whole thing turning ugly quick! God I hope not, but these players look pitiful on shooting, defense, rebounding, and freethrows are getting worse and worse! Resembling a tired or poor attitude team with no fight at times! BLOWS MY MIND!!!

our rpi dropped 8 spots to #36

And Palm updated his bracketology today (go figure) and AR is now out. Couldn’t wait to claim he was right could he

Apparently we arrived on the bubble with impeccable timing, “the 2017 bubble watch begins today.” http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Some folks around here act like there is nothing left to keep their interest this season. Those people I know have not been following razorback basketball for the past twenty years. This is where we have been trying to get back to. You can’t hit a double without touching first base. You can’t get a top 5 seed every year without rising through the crowded bubble field first. This is why we watch. If you are ready to give up and tune out three weeks before March you don’t love basketball period.

Thanks for link on that, this is the most exciting time of the year for college basketball fans.

Only thing I don’t like about ESPN is them not going by the official RPI/SOS. Our actual SOS is 63 not 73, which is a pretty big difference.

Here’s the link I’ve been following lately to keep up with everything. CBS actual goes by the official RPI/SOS by the NCAA.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketb … razorbacks

If CBS is putting all that information next to RPI, they are not using the NCAA numbers. Because the NCAA is not releasing SOS stuff. I suspect, since Jerry Palm is on the CBS payroll, they’re using his RPI stuff. Which is close to the NCAA but not exactly.

Once again, the NCAA RPI (minus SOS) is available, updated every day, at <LINK_TEXT text=“http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball … etball-rpi”>http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi</LINK_TEXT>

Ya, interesting how in that espn link they admit how much they hate rpi and can’t wait for a smarter metric to replace rpi next year. I’ve noticed our rpi has outperformed our bpi, pomeroy, and sagarin ranking all year. It seems rpi emphasizes sos more and emphasizes win-loss slightly less than the other systems. I wonder how strictly the tourney committee will use rpi this year to compare the teams on the bubble. More wins vs top 50 rpi opponents would take us a long ways in all these ranking systems. Any more losses will set us back in rpi but even more so in the other rankings. We are lucky rpi is in use this year and our scheduling has put us in great position even with a couple bad losses. Now we just have to win.