projections of who will win each regional

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2018/simulation

Interesting. We’re one of the least favored “favorites.”

It is interesting. Less that 50/50 chance of winning our regional, at our home field, with our home record???
Interesting to say the least!

I wonder if this is indicative of Southern Miss’s power more than it is indicating our weakness?

Probably because their are team here that have great reputation nationally and have knocked off power 5 teams before and maybe because we have only won 2/6 we hosted…if we hit like we are capable we will win but we continue to struggle with risp that leaves everybody in the game.

What I find interesting is that we have a higher RPi - though just barely - than Ole Miss . . . and the #2 in their regional (Tenn Tech) has a higher RPI than our #2 (S. Miss). So, you’d think we’d have a higher probability than they would of surviving. I have no idea what other factors he uses in his predictions, but you’d also think our fantastic home record would also factor in our favor (relative to just about any other team that’s hosting).

But then, I look at his ELO rankings and Ole Miss is #1 in those - we are 5th and Florida is 7th! So, perhaps that’s what he’s looking at/using for these predictions. Who knows?

FWIW, Boyd (the other guy who estimates RPI daily) has his own “Iterative Strength Ratings” and in that ranking, Ole Miss is #3, Florida is #4, and we are #5. Obviously, that plays no role in Nolan’s predictions. Just goes to show that all 3 teams are pretty much even in the various power ratings. Florida appears to have the easier group of teams playing with them in Gainesviille than do either we or Ole Miss, but if we take care of business we should advance.

Shows all #1 seeds advancing which has never happened and won’t happen this year either. Maybe the low percentage like us means all will not advance. I will be willing to say one of higher seeds won’t advance just hope it isn’t us!

D1 Baseball gives a probability of the #1’s advancing from each Regional

They have not done all of them yet, but the highest so far is Florida, ranked 9/10. We are second at 8/10.

Stanford is only 4
NC St 4
Texas Tech 4
Ole Miss 5
Clemson 5
Florida St 6
Texas 5
UNC 6
OSU 7
UNC is This is just their opinion, not based on any metrics.