Projecting Benintendi's Rookie Season stats

Even though Benintendi got some time in The Show last season, he is technically still a rookie, since he had less than the number of at bats to remove that status. Obviously, this year (barring injury) will be his first full season in the Majors. Was musing on this the other day and came up with the following numbers for his first season.

Batting Average: .279
Home Runs: 13
RBI: 82
SB: 13

In the longer term, I see AB as a guy who will consistently hit between .280 and .320, knock 15-20 HR a year, and drive in 80 - 100 RBI, depending on where they place him in the order. He’ll also steal a few bases, but he won’t be asked to swipe a lot.

Just posting this here so I can check at the end of the season and see how close I got.

Just curious. How did you arrive at the .279 batting average? Through 16 games, he’s batting .317. Even if you throw in his MLB games last season, he’s still at .305.

ZIPS project .282

http://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/Playe … MID=643217

The kid is going to be a star. He already is. He has great ability, and so far, a great attitude.

I’m thinking he will hit .291 and will flirt with 20 homers.

It’s all subjective, Harley; a guess.

I’m speculating that somewhere this season, he may hit a rookie “wall” for a few weeks. He and the other rookies are young, and have plenty of stamina. But none of them are used to playing 162 games, against top quality competition. It’s a grind. I’m sure he’ll adjust, but it wouldn’t surprise me for him to have 2 to 4 weeks of a gradual slide before he regains his stride. Also, don’t forget that as the season goes along, MLB personnel are building a book on him - something they didn’t have last year and are still developing early in this season. They’ll adjust to him . . . and then he’ll adjust back.

As I said, longer term I see him as a guy who will consistently hit around .300 . . . I used the range of .280 to .320.

I love watching him hit. I believe I’ve figured out who his swing reminds me of - Rafael Palmiero. Not the stance - but the swing. Cobra-quick, pure, consistent, efficient, more powerful than it appears.

Another great article on Benny Baseball.

http://www.overthemonster.com/2017/4/21 … -is-better

Well, now that the regular season is over . . . looks like Clay and I both had pretty good predictions for Benny’s first full season in the majors.

I under-estimated his HR a bit, partially because I thought he might be platooned some until he got used to MLB left handed pitching, so would have fewer at bats. They started him off that way, but it didn’t last long. I said - and I believe - that AB will be a “20 HR guy” during the course of his career, but I only had him with 12 this season. Clay was more accurate, indicating he would “flirt with 20” (which is what he ended up with).

On the other hand, while I do think Benintendi will hit .300 several times during his MLB career, he finished this year at a solid .271. He hovered between .270 and .280 virtually the entire second half of the season - pretty close to the .279 I had predicted. Clay had projected .290. Benny also exceeded my expectations for RBI (I guessed 82, and he had 90) and SB (he stole 20 instead of the 13 I had projected). And, he played a very solid outfield (mostly left field, some CF), turning in a few Sporstcenter worthy plays.

All in all, a very solid and well rounded rookie campaign. I’m anxious to see what he does in the playoffs, where he hit .333 last season.

http://m.mlb.com/player/643217/andrew-benintendi

Benny was up close to .280 a week or so back but didn’t hit much at the end of the season. We’ll see how he handles his first exposure to MLB postseason play; he obviously got NCAA tournament experience here.

He played in the postseason last year; hit a home run in his first at-bat vs. the Indians.

Obviously I’d forgotten the Sox made the playoffs last year.
https://twitter.com/BostonStrong_34/status/914338053388472320

[quote=“SwineFusion”]

Obviously I’d forgotten the Sox made the playoffs last year.

[/quote]I wasn’t trying to bust your balls, Jeff. Just highlighting something you obviously overlooked in my first post.

Love watching Benintendi play. I watch more MLB these days with so many former Razorbacks playing. I try to watch Detroit, although they aren’t very good. I just love seeing James McCann. By the way, after hitting below .200 for much of the first half, he finished at .253. He hit .292 after the all-star break. Hopefully, that will make him some money. He’s in arbitration this winter. I think he’s been making $580,000 this season. He should get a pretty big jump. Who knows what Detroit’s roster will look like next year. Assume McCann will still be on it.

[quote=“ClayHenry”]
Love watching Benintendi play. I watch more MLB these days with so many former Razorbacks playing. I try to watch Detroit, although they aren’t very good. I just love seeing James McCann. By the way, after hitting below .200 for much of the first half, he finished at .253. He hit .292 after the all-star break. Hopefully, that will make him some money. He’s in arbitration this winter. I think he’s been making $580,000 this season. He should get a pretty big jump. Who knows what Detroit’s roster will look like next year. Assume McCann will still be on it.
[/quote]I also watch more MLB than I have in a while, for exactly the same reason. Benintendi is my favorite player to watch play, so I see more Red Sox games than any other (including my home town Rangers!). Going way, WAY back, reminds me of when I was just learning the game (of football) and always watched Lance Alworth’s games (when I could - not as many games telecast in those days).

As for McCann, if he’s not on Detroit’s roster, he’ll be on someone else’s. Maybe that would be good for him? Bottom line is that he’s a major league talent, so he will land somewhere and play.