Post-midnight update: Lunardi moves us to a 9 seed

Now matched against Wichita State in Salt Lake City. I liked Dayton in Tulsa better…

Vandy still in play-in game vs. Wake, Chickens are an 8, Kentucky a 2, Florida a 4.

If we win our first game against probably Ole Miss we should be an 8 seed which will not help since, in either case, in the second round of the NCAA tournament (assuming we win the first game) we would be playing a 1 seed.

However, if we win our first game and then the second game against either Vandy or Florida we might be a 6 seed. Then if we get to the second round in the NCAA we would be playing a 2 seed. We might beat a 3 seed and make it to the sweet sixteen.

I’m puzzled by South Carolina having a better seed than us.

3 nonconference losses were @ Seton Hall, @ Memphis and home to clemson

The Mizzou loss is the difference, it’s a really bad loss. Their RPI is 262. We may enter the tournament with the worst loss of any high major team with an at large bid. You take that Mizzou loss off our record and we’re probably looking at a 7 seed right now.

Makes sense I suppose

Changing the Misery game to a win takes our RPI from 28 now to 24, according to RPI Wizard. That’s about one seed line. SoCar has been regarded higher than us all year, but that’s not necessarily how the committee sees it next weekend.

Swine is there any chance the hogs move up to the 7 seed line.

Hard to predict what the committee will do. They have RPI and Sagarin and Pomeroy available, but a lot of it is the eye test, I think. Certainly if we play particularly well in Nashville, as in beating Florida on Saturday, that would improve our chances.

Thank you. You seem to be pretty knowledgeable and level headed.
Beating Florida would be nice! Not just for this year but next year as well.
How far do you think we get in the Dance.

I try to rely on facts, not emotions.

The matchup in the tournament is everything. Draw a team that can’t handle our traps, we romp. Ditto with a team that lacks outside shooters. Another team with a worse seed, with lots of quick penetrators, may eat our lunch. We are capable of beating a higher seed if the matchup is right, and that could include a 2 or 3 seed in the second round. I would not expect to advance past the Sweet 16 under any circumstances.

One more note on our eventual seeding: The difference between a 7 seed and a 9 seed may only be five teams. The difference between a high 9 seed and a low 10 seed can be 7 teams. If the committee concludes that a 7-3 finish, with two losses to Florida (or 8-2 with a split with Florida), is more impressive than some other teams that scuffled their way into March, they could easily move us up a notch or two. Or vice versa.

Looking at some teams around us in the RPI, Creighton is 5-5 in the last 10. We’re 7-3. I don’t think they emphasize the last 10 as much now as they once did, but it’s still there as a tiebreaker, I guess. But losing to Mizzou and Moo U is a tiebreaker that could be used against us, as well. Lunardi has Creighton as a 7. Wichita State, who he has playing us as an 8 right now, has won its last 10. Maybe that 10-0 run is why he has them as an 8, even though their only two top-50 wins are against Illinois State and they got blown out at home by Okie Lite.

I see that but the matchup with Wichita State to me seems like a good one. Especially since Gonzaga is the 1seed there! I may be wrong but I could see the hogs winning both of those games.

Creighton is an interesting team. They were a legit final four contender until their likely All American PG Maurice Watson (8.5 assists per game to lead the country) blew out his ACL. [He subsequently has been charged with First Degree Sexual Assault.]

They have had some nice wins since his injury (@ Butler comes to mind), however they are not near as scary now as they were two months ago (18-1 with only loss at Nova prior to his injury).

What has to happen for us to be put in the Tulsa regional?

Be in the 8/9 opposite Kansas in Midwest. Or get into the 7/10 game in the East with someone like Baylor looming in the next round.

Personally, best case scenario is the 7 in the East. I think one win this week might get us a 7, two wins and I think it’s a definite.

The problem that I see for us is that a lot of very strong offensive teams teams are lurking in the #7 - #9 region of the bracket. We may have to win a shootout in the first round.

welcome to life outside the sec. we are going to have to make a lot of shots and pray the refs don’t kill us with free throw disparity