Pirate tells

I looked at the season stats of all of Seton Hall’s opponents and used them to predict whether SH won or lost the game. Some of the biggest differences between the teams in the win and loss groups were as follows:

  1. Offensive points per possession - the Pirates usually fared well against pedestrian offensive teams and frequently struggled against powerful offensive teams. Teams that they beat averaged under 1.05 ppp, whereas teams to which they lost averaged over 1.10 ppp

  2. Offensive EFg% - the Pirates feast on poor shooting. They were 8-0 against teams that shot under 48% for the season but 13-11 against everybody else. Teams that had high FT percentages and shot and made a lot of treys fared the best against them.

  3. Offensive possessions per TO (Assist) - SH had more trouble with good ball-handling teams.

  4. Possessions per team’s shot blocked - strangely a huge split between wins and losses was how often a team got their shots blocked. SH struggled against teams that rarely got rejected even though the Pirates block shots infrequently.

Oddly splits tended to be small with regards to the defense of the opposition, but predictive stats included…

  1. Possessions per steal - The Pirates struggled against the opponents that stole the ball the most frequently.

  2. DReb% - They preferred weaker rebounding teams…

  3. Opponent possession per FT - …and more foul-prone teams even though they don’t shoot FTs well.

Seton Hall’s primary superpower this season was rebounding at both ends. Their defense was quite good, but the stats indicate that they don’t emphasize challenging shots or passing lanes. They prefer shot denial and limit to one shot. As such, teams that are patient, handle well, have good shot selection, and knock down shots are a problem for them. Generally that’s good news for us since more passive defense has not worked well against us the last few years. The caveat is that teams that shoot a lot of treys gave them more trouble. We hit a high percentage from the arc but didn’t take many. We need to get our perimeter game going, which is erratic but can be formidable.

Seton Hall wasn’t an outstanding offensive team this season, which is probably why they tended to lose to the powerful scoring teams on their schedule. On some nights they just couldn’t score enough points. Our biggest concern on D is getting killed on the offensive glass. Which rebounding team will show up? We were all over the map. On a brighter note the Pirates struggled against teams that pressure ballhandling. Can we balance pressure with staying in rebounding position? At times we have done both this season but have had plenty of complete fails. I’m thinking that the matchup zone is our best D against them. Just as our D improved in our late season run, their O did the same down the stretch. How relevant are their season stats on O?

It looks to me that both teams have serious challenges in defending the other. If we knock down jumpers, they should have a difficult time stopping our efficient O. Will we give it all back on the defensive glass?

Seems as if the stats paint the picture if we are hot from 3 and get to the free line we should win. The turnover picture for the hogs to take advantage they have to score on the break. Something we tend to not take advantage of at times.
I hope the team plays with focus. Control their emotions and play with some fire. It was said in another thread " that somebody better help the bear ". If they can come out with that edge it will be fine.
What ever the final score is I’m proud of our hogs.

Great analysis. Thanks.

Go Hogs!!!