On the SEC Now show he predicted Arkansas in the final 4. Gotta love him!
We’re better than SoCar was last year. So it’s not entirely out of the realm of possibility. And the East is probably the weakest regional.
This is probably going to be taken wrong - as in that I’m rooting against the Hogs, or that I WANT Arkansas to lose. Neither could be further from the truth.
That said, I’d be stunned if this team made it to the Final Four. On the one hand, they DEFINITELY CAN beat any team in the nation on a given day. THAT wouldn’t surprise me all that much.
But the Achilles heel of this team has been consistency (well - that and defensive lapses). They can look almost unbeatable and/or very resilient one game, and then lose by 15/20 in a listless performance the next. I just don’t see them winning four in a row against NCAAT quality teams.
So I agree with SF; making it to the Sweet 16 would be fantastic and very satisfying for me. We’d be playing with house money beyond that.
I don’t think any of us realistically think the hogs will make the final four. It’s hard enough to make it as a 1 or 2 seed. Absent some strange upsets opposite us, we’ll be lower seeded than every team we face past the first game. Right now I’d just love to make the sweet 16. Anything past that exceeds my expectations & will make for a tremendous NCAA tourney—and a tremendous season.
I know it’s happened before. I know So Carolina did it last year. But ‘tain’t likely.
Wizard, I agree with you. If we come out flat which were very capable of doing, we won’t get by Butler. We should beat Butler if the right team shows up. I just hope it does.
I’m a dreamer but I don’t pay attention to dreams that are fueled by hallucinogens. Put down the magic mushrooms Shootah. Sweet 16? Yeah i can see that. I almost expect it. Final Four? N’ yet, but soon.
I know a lot of people think he is crazy, but this is actually a favorable draw that could put us there, REALISTICALLY.
Look at the entire region, it wouldn’t be a shock to see an all SEC regional final (Bama vs US, or Bama vs FL), it also wouldn’t be shocking to see WVU vs Us, or WVU vs FL. Many of you are underestimating this bracket based of perceived thoughts. This is probably the best draw we could have got without being a 1 or 2 seed.
It is a great draw for Arkansas considering the other scenarios
I am picking them to win 2 games, but would not bet the house on either
I might bet Clay’s house, but not mine
I like the draws and region but hate the location.
Might as well play in Canada.
Brings dropping two to LSU into perspective.
Might have been difference of Dallas or Canada for our fan base.
If we can play with emotion like we do at home, we might get on a roll.
Come out flat and get down early and play hero ball one and done long shots to catch up and we could be out first game.
If we had this draw in Dallas I would say elite eight.
This draw almost in Canada, it’s hard to say.
Mike has to get their attention and make sure the team is scared of him. We need the Mike we saw against Florida in SEC tourney. No way that team was going to lose with that kind of intensity.
I would be thrilled with sweet sixteen which has been like 20 years or so.
That would sure be nice, but I believe it highly unlikely. Certainly Purdue will be favored, but also Butler is a 1.5 point favorite and, per the money-line, Arkansas only has a 47% chance of winning. I would bet $100 on Butler. A bet I would hope to lose, but at least I would get $100 if Butler wins.
I keep remembering Macon’s face when he was sitting on the court exhausted after the game with the Tarheels last year. I agree that they have had listless performances during the regular season but I expect Macon is going to keep them all honest in the tournament. Nonetheless, I don’t see them in the Final 4 (but will hope) because of the weaknesses inherent in this team. I will enjoy the ride. The proximity of Butler and Purdue to Detroit makes the first and second round more difficult imo.
I filled out my bracket last night, based on the eye test. Then I watch all the “experts” talk about filling out their brackets. I personally, based on the eye test, think this is the weakest 1 & 2 seeds I’ve seen. I don’t have any 1 seeds making the EE, and I only have 2 number 2 seeds (I have UNC making the title game). I said for about the last month, that this time of year is about matchups. I think we got a good bracket for a run. VA is supposed to be the #1 overall seed, I think they got a BAD draw. JMHO
Which team do you think we play has the best chance of beating us to keep us from the Final Four. Those teams will have to play the same number of games that we do. It’s a one-game-at-a-time approach. Do you think we will lose to Butler?
Yes, we have been inconsistent, but so has been every team in the bracket except maybe Virginia. I am not thinking FF, but that is not because of inconsistency. I am betting against FF because we are just not that talented,
It’s nice to see fans talking about the hogs in the Dance! Just win a couple beyond that its house money!
This is the hogs best draw in a long time. It’s also nice to be going dancing in back to back years!
I think the whole key to this is just beating Butlet! Take it one game at a time! This season is a sucess! In the near next few years it would be nice for our hogs to earn a top 4 seed!
If we had won those two LSU games, we’d probably be a 3 seed like Tennessee is - and, yes, perhaps in Dallas.
[quote=“TheHuntinHog”]
Which team do you think we play has the best chance of beating us to keep us from the Final Four. Those teams will have to play the same number of games that we do. It’s a one-game-at-a-time approach. Do you think we will lose to Butler?
[/quote]Well, the ONLY team anyone KNOWS we will play is Butler; IF we win that game, we won’t know who we will be playing in the games that follow until just before. Regardless, as I stated in my OP - IMO, we can beat any team in the tournament, and are also capable of losing to almost any of them (although it would take some effort to lose to the 15 and 16 seeds).
Do I think we’ll lose to Butler? I’d say we have about a 55-60% chance of winning. It looks to be a pretty even match, albeit two different styles of play. I think that whichever teams shows up and plays well will win. I just don’t know which team it will be.
[quote=“Gay”]
That would sure be nice, but I believe it highly unlikely. Certainly Purdue will be favored, but also Butler is a 1.5 point favorite and, per the money-line, Arkansas only has a 47% chance of winning. I would bet $100 on Butler. A bet I would hope to lose, but at least I would get $100 if Butler wins.
[/quote]Well, you’re sure a much more aggressive better than I if you feel like a 53% chance of winning is worth placing money on. Most especially, I hate to bet against the teams I really like; it puts me in conflict with myself ("let’s see . . . I want Arkansas to win, but I don’t want to lose my $100 bet . . . "). So the only reason I would ever bet against one of my teams (IF even then) would be if the line were waaaay, way out of line (like Alabama being a 10 point underdog to us in Tuscaloosa next year). And as I said, even then I probably woldn’t bet against the Hogs just on principle.
[quote=“PJHawg”]
Yes, we have been inconsistent, but so has been every team in the bracket except maybe Virginia. I am not thinking FF, but that is not because of inconsistency. I am betting against FF because we are just not that talented,
[/quote]Yes, talent is another reason that we won’t reach the Final Four. But IMO inconsistency against teams we are NOT out-talented by will get us before we reach that point.
Two games out of 34 are not the difference between a 7 seed and a 3 seed, Wiz. They just aren’t. Doesn’t matter whether those games are against LSU or against North Carolina.
We lost 11 games against the #22 schedule per Pomeroy. The 1 seeds have 2, 4, 5 and 7 losses, and the 7 (Kansas) played a top-10 schedule. The 2s have 7, 4, 6 and 10 losses, but all four of them are in Pomeroy’s top 7 (Kansas isn’t). The 3s have 4, 7, 8 and 9. The 4s have 4, 7, 7 and 7.
The 5s have 10, 8, 10 and 9 losses. Now you’re getting into the area beating LSU twice would have put us.
Think of it as grading on a curve. UVa, at 31-2, sets the curve, but being at 5 losses or less gets you an A+. The 2 seeds get an A. The 3 seeds get A-. The 4s get a B+. The 5s get B, the 6s (7, 11, 12 and 9 losses) get B-. We got a C+. Make it 25-9, we’re probably a 5, but that’s B, not A-. Notice none of those 4s lost more than 7. You think we’d pass any of them at 25-9? I don’t.
Now if you want to argue that at 23-11, we should be seeded ahead of Miami, who lost 9 games against a much weaker schedule, I’m not gonna argue with you. Florida split with us and finished in front of us in the SEC, and played a tougher schedule. I can’t argue too much with them getting a 6 instead of us.
But Butler’s undoubtedly wondering how they got a 10 to our 7. Or thinking they got a really lucky draw for a 10.
Meanwhile, five teams above us on Pomeroy are in the NIT.
[quote=“WizardofhOgZ”]
If we had won those two LSU games, we’d probably be a 3 seed like Tennessee is - and, yes, perhaps in Dallas.
[quote=“TheHuntinHog”]
Which team do you think we play has the best chance of beating us to keep us from the Final Four. Those teams will have to play the same number of games that we do. It’s a one-game-at-a-time approach. Do you think we will lose to Butler?
[/quote]Well, the ONLY team anyone KNOWS we will play is Butler; IF we win that game, we won’t know who we will be playing in the games that follow until just before. Regardless, as I stated in my OP - IMO, we can beat any team in the tournament, and are also capable of losing to almost any of them (although it would take some effort to lose to the 15 and 16 seeds).
Do I think we’ll lose to Butler? I’d say we have about a 55-60% chance of winning. It looks to be a pretty even match, albeit two different styles of play. I think that whichever teams shows up and plays well will win. I just don’t know which team it will be.
[quote=“Gay”]
That would sure be nice, but I believe it highly unlikely. Certainly Purdue will be favored, but also Butler is a 1.5 point favorite and, per the money-line, Arkansas only has a 47% chance of winning. I would bet $100 on Butler. A bet I would hope to lose, but at least I would get $100 if Butler wins.
[/quote]Well, you’re sure a much more aggressive better than I if you feel like a 53% chance of winning is worth placing money on. Most especially, I hate to bet against the teams I really like; it puts me in conflict with myself ("let’s see . . . I want Arkansas to win, but I don’t want to lose my $100 bet . . . "). So the only reason I would ever bet against one of my teams (IF even then) would be if the line were waaaay, way out of line (like Alabama being a 10 point underdog to us in Tuscaloosa next year). And as I said, even then I probably woldn’t bet against the Hogs just on principle.
I just don’t get this “if we had won those 2 LSU games” scenario. You are assuming that everything else plays out just like it did. Do you honestly believe it will? Man, every team has such “what if” hindsight scenarios.
I’m not sure I get your point. I was just responding to Bush Hog, who wondered what it might have meant if we had taken care of business against LSU - a team I believe most will agree we should have beaten at least once, if not both games.
Further, it is not uncommon for a fan to wonder “what might have been” had one or two games gone differently than they did; that does not mean that everything else would have gone as it did . . . but we’ll never know.
For example, older Hog fans always wonder “what might have been” had Arkansas WON the Big Shootout (as they should have). You don’t hear anyone saying “yeah, but if that had happened, maybe they lose to TCU”. It’s just normal fan speculation. Doesn’t mean any more than that.
I like my hogs a lot and coach A but sadly I don’t think we make it past butler butler is a good program and has been peaking in recent years. I think that fact along with the Detroit location all make for a tough first round and second round if we make it that far. But we may know the outcome at halftime if Arkansas is up odds are we win if we are down at half or tide odds are we loose