Against SEC teams shooting over 51% in eFG% in league play Arkansas is 1-4, the one being the 15-point comeback against Vandy. We’re 5-1 against everybody else. Adding Oklahoma State and Texas would make that 1-5 and 6-1.
Highly correlated with:
If we can afford to let them take some wide-open shots, we’re good enough to beat them.
If the opponent will improve our defense by missing some easy shots, our defense is good enough.
I don’t believe it is a coincidence that the one win came on the road where we employ more shot-denial than at home. Our defense was quite good at Vandy. An anomaly is that we are #51 in the nation in steals per possession but #200 in forced TOs per possession. That seems to imply that we are getting steals by gambling that on average isn’t putting much pressure on the offense but is leading to open shots, lots of fouls, and poor rebounding position. That’s how you get to #151 in Pomeroy defensive efficiency.
Our offense hasn’t been good enough to outscore other good offenses because we seem to have a maddening tendency to go into mid-half droughts, regardless of whom we start or bring off the bench. The starters on their second run have often been the culprit. Spurts at the end of halves have allowed us to stay in contact in many wins. I have no guess as to why this happens.
I don’t believe it is a coincidence that the one win came on the road where we employ more shot-denial than at home. Our defense was quite good at Vandy. An anomaly is that we are #51 in the nation in steals per possession but #200 in forced TOs per possession. That seems to imply that we are getting steals by gambling that on average isn’t putting much pressure on the offense but is leading to open shots, lots of fouls, and poor rebounding position. That’s how you get to #151 in Pomeroy defensive efficiency.