We went into the gym of the Ken Pom #1 defense desperately needing a resume builder and put up 1.2+ points per possession against a team that averages surrendering under 0.9 ppp. That was after we scored only 7 points in the first seven minutes. Just a tremendous team effort. The D was not bad either after that horrible first 5 minutes. USC scored 19 in the first 5-plus-change minutes but only 57 in the last 35 minutes as we trounced them by 21 over that span.
In order to win I thought the Hogs would need to avoid big losses in TOs (check), on the boards (check), and at the line (check) while winning the arc decisively (well, we won it). The Hogs actually edged out a win in the rebound battle by retrieving 37.3% of their misses as opposed to 36.6% for USC. Despite some iffy calls the good guys won FTs 16-14 and were only -1 in TOs. In all the categories that USC depends on winning we played them even. We’re the better shooting team. Got a +3 from the arc. Ball game.
Nice to see so many players step up as the game progressed. Thornwell deserves SEC POY, but Barford was the best player on the floor in the first half. Dusty and Moses said no to a letdown in the second half. Dustin and Trey made some huge plays along the way. Mantastic and Macon-them-in-the-clutch closed it out.
That was the best game that the Hogs have played since winning in Rupp a few years ago.
I thought we played better tonight than we did winning at Rupp, to be honest. Chickens much better defensively than those Jellycats were.
Diving a little deeper into the numbers: the OPPP was 1.22 against a defense that allowed .87. As noted, the DPPP was skewed a bit by that 14-0 run early.
The PPP numbers seem to be a little off though. Applying the possession estimate formula to our stats gives 68 possessions. Applying it to the Chickens’ stats gives 71. I’ve never seen a three-possession disparity like that, and it’s obviously not possible for one team to have three more possessions than the opponents since jump balls have been eliminated after the opening tap. Which makes me wonder if the ESPN box score is a bit off. But the official boxscore has the same numbers at the SoCar website. I counted possessions on the play by play and got 69 for them, 68 for us. That makes more sense. I think the discrepancy might have been all the and-ones SoCar got. The FT part of the possession formula assumes most possessions ending in FTs will have two shots.
OK. I’m trying to figure this out whether this is actually possible. It might be.
I see that SoCar won the opening tip, then missed the last shot of the half. So they would have had one more possession than we did in the first half. We got the ball first after halftime, possessions continued to alternate, the Chickens missed the final shot with 1 second left and Moses rebounded. We got a final 1-second possession thanks to that rebound. Therefore, the total number of possessions should have been even. I do not see a tied ball called in either half; they should note that in the PBP since it would change the alternating possession, and particularly if it results in a turnover.
A hypothetical: Let’s say that Team A wins the opening tap, each team has 35 possessions, there is one tied ball called which goes to Team B as a turnover, and Team A misses the last shot of the half on its 36th possession. Team A again gets it to start the second half on alternating possessions, there are 35 possessions for both teams, Team A hits a jumper on its 36th possession as the final horn sounds. That would be 72 possessions for A and 70 for B, so you could have a difference of two. But since Moses got that last rebound with 1 second left tonight, that could not have been the case. They may not have credited us with a one-second possession there, but it was.
but best offense in history huh? idk I was looking at stats from the 90s, a lot recently since people been talking about how are defense is so much worse now, and it seems people forget we used to put up 100 points on the regular. i guess 91 was out highest scoring year. i bet we can find a game from that season as candidate for best offensive game in history
the glory days wasnt all about defense. last night was indeed one of the great performances in recent memory, considering the opponent style and road venue especially. i am eager to get back to averaging in the 90s again. we are heading the right direction for sure.
I didn’t claim “best offensive game in history”. I said “one of the greatest”, as in amongst the best. Sure, we’ve put up more points in individual games. I base that assertion on the situation (true road, desperate for a win), the competition (statistically the #1 defense in the country after 80% of the season has been played), and the ceiling for this team (not an obvious first-round draft choice on the roster at present). It was quite remarkable that this team torched that defense to that degree under those circumstance, and they deserve high praise for doing so. I’ll stick by the assertion.
They also weren’t getting 20 layups from fastbreaks. Most of our scoring was going around, through, and over their set halfcourt defense, which, as noted, is elite by any measure. You also have to remember that game was right at 70 possessions. Many of the games in the 90’s were 80+ possessions. If you score 70 points in 50 possessions, you’ve played remarkable offense. Our total scales up to about 100 points at a pace for those 90’s teams in many games.
The ballhandling was quite good, however. USC has been averaging forcing 19 TOs per games in SEC play. We only had 13. I’m not sure assists fully capture the ball movement on this team in general. Dusty and Barford certainly score a lot on one-on-one drives. However, Dusty, Macon, and Barford all like to put the ball on the floor to eliminate a challenge by a lunging defender even if the passing is what caused the defender to be out of position in the first place. I don’t know how they score them now, but the passer wouldn’t get credit for an old-school assist back in the day.
That said, we made some tough, contested shots on this night. You have to do that to win in Columbia unless they cooperate by bricking shot after shot.
That is definitely true at times. Those 3 are good at taking advantage of defenses that overplay passing lanes by attacking. Dusty is good meeting the ball as he curls off pindowns.
Assists vary so much depending on scorekeeper. Some are more lenient than others, especially when it comes to the home team. This happens a lot in the NBA, too. Was listening to a podcast a while back and a guy was talking about how he’d gone back through SportVu data while analyzing like a LeBron-Kyrie PnR or something similar and the amount of bogus assists were staggering.
Now that I think about it, it doesn’t. If it resulted in a turnover, that would have been noted on the PBP and the stat sheet. If it did not result in a turnover, that possession continues.
In my hypothetical, the only reason I threw in a first-half tie ball is that it allowed Team A to get the ball first in both halves. Which is the only way a team can have two more possessions than its opponents.
The formula for estimating possessions from the box score is:
Field goal attempts minus offensive rebounds, since each OReb extends the existing possession, plus…
Free throw attempts X .475, which is apparently the historical relationship between possessions that end in FTs and number of FTs attempted, plus…
Number of turnovers, possessions that end without a shot.
Of course at the end of a half or a game, it is possible to have a possession that does not result in a shot, free throws or a turnover. Just dribble out the clock, or hold onto the final rebound like Moses did last night.
Certainly when I was on the UA stat crew, there was great variation from school to school on how many assists were handed out. Schools with better point guards also tended to have more lenient assist decisions by the stat crew.
It is possible within the guidelines for an assist to be credited if the shooter has to dribble before shooting. However, this most often happens in a fast break situation when the ball is thrown to a player streaking behind the defense, who then takes a dribble or two before the layup/dunk. A pass to a guard on the perimeter who then penetrates using the dribble is not going to result in an assist.
I found the NCAA statistics manual. Interestingly, it is not even required that a pass that is given an assist be the LAST pass before the basket, but it must be the one that contributes most to the scoring opportunity. Also, in the long pass scenario, it is possible to give an assist if the player blows the layup, but gets his own rebound and then scores.