That is what all the bracket prognosticators seem to be pointing at. Win at Florida is obviously sufficient. Georgia at home should work too. If we lose both and beat a middle of the pack sec tourney team it will be a closer call, but should still suffice unless a Cinderella team like misery, missst, lsu or auburn happens to reach us in the quarterfinals…
I’m still not convinced we’re in unless we win at least one more in the regular season. I think we can go 1-1 & make it, but I’m not sure 0-2 gets us there. If we do that, I suspect we have to win at least 1 or maybe 2 in the SECT. It’s not a theory I want to test. If we lose at UF, still a likely outcome, I’ll be very nervous about our game against UGA. UGA has played well. They’ve lost several very close games to some good teams.
Valid concern, hope the fans show up and show out for senior night! I’ve been to two games this year and this will be my first opportunity to see them at the basketball palace. I hope the atmosphere is lit!
I’ve been playing the what if game for a month. It’s simple. If you want a spot in the NCAA tourney you need to win 23 or have an RPI 41 or higher (Top 40). I know there is nothing that says that, but since the field expanded to 68, only one team from a P5 conference failed to make the tourney with 23 wins. 41 is also the lowest RPI to get in.
Now, if we reach 23. We have both magic numbers, no matter who we play in the SECT. We would have 23 wins and a 38 RPI (playing LSU as our first game). The most likely scenario is we get AUB again as our first game. The most interesting thing about that scenario is we can lose to FL, GA, and AUB and have 22 wins and the 41 RPI. That is the definition of sweating the bubble on Selection Sunday.
It’s really simple, win and in.
Now as for our remaining games, KY plays Vandy first. A KY win clinches the overall 1 seed in the SECT. Florida won’t have anything to play for (other than their SR’s on SR day). AR on the other hand needs to win to ensure a lock for the Big Dance. AR may catch Fl down. Now, if AR beats Florida they’ll be loose and relaxed for Ga. they can play to have fun and send the SR’s out with a big game. Fox said his guys were tired, and at that point they will be eliminated from the NCAAT. So, AR can realistically catch both teams when they’re down.
Step outta line, the men come and take you away. (Kinda reminds me of current events…)
I just ran RPI Wizard for us losing the next three, including Vandy in the SECT. That would drop us to somewhere around RPI 48. Possible to get in with a 48, but definitely bubblicious. Winning either the Georgia game or the Vandy game puts RPI in the 35-36 range. We’ll be in with that kind of number.
I haven’t attempted to look at how our closest competitors for an at-large spot have fared over the last couple of games or how they’re likely to fare over the next week. I’m simply nervous that if we lose the final two, we’ll be very much at risk of getting bumped. I feel pretty good about our chances if we just win one of them.
I know. Everything I said is based on simple subjective “feeling.” I don’t deny it. It’s pure unadulterated fear. I’ve been pretty damned sure both ways several times this season. I knew we were done after we lost to MSU. Felt almost certain we were in after the next winning streak. Was equally sure we were out following the losses to MU & Vandy. So now I’m certain I was right before—I knew we were in & I knew we were out. That’s the one thing about this yo-yo year–certainty both ways.
One thing about the bubble. The teams that are there are there because for the most part they haven’t gone on big runs. They’ve kinda muddled around winning ~ three out of five all year long (we’re at 3+ out of four now).
Jerry Palm lists everybody in his bracket in seeds 10-12 as bubble teams, and even two 9s (Michigan State and VCU). Here are the RPI numbers tonight for his bubble, plus his first four out:
Michigan State: 41
VCU: 22 The 10s:
Seton Hall 49
Xavier 26 The 11s, including play-in teams:
Wake Forest 45
Rhode Island 44
Marquette 72 (???)
Middle Tenn 30
Providence 52 And a couple of 12s who might be at-larges:
Illinois State 33
UT-Arlington 36 First four out:
Wichita State 40
Even if we nosedive to 48 or so, we’ll be ahead of people like Syracuse (which can’t win on the road), K-State and Marquette. I am aware that RPI is not the be-all and end-all, but they do consider it.
That’s what I was thinking, a lot of things would have to go wrong for us not to make it. We’d have to lose the remaining 2 games, then get beat by LSU, Miss St, or Missouri in our first game in the tournament. That’s really the only scenario that would put our RPI above 50. And even then, depending on what some of our opponents do, we might still get in even if that happens. But, I agree with everyone else, 1 more win pretty much eliminates any doubt.