# One consideration for this weekend

SEC athletic directors passed a rule change earlier this year that will allow the final regular season series to be extended by one day if the series being shortened could affect a championship outcome, such as the overall or division race.

That is something to remember this weekend with the rainy forecast across the South. Arkansas and Georgia could play Sunday if they are unable to play Saturday.

http://www.wholehogsports.com/news/2018 … ed-4-days/

Hmm. If we were to win the first 2 games we will clinch at least a tie with OM for the west. If OM loses either of the first 2 games it plays with Bama while we’ve won our first 2, then we will have clinched the west & no 3rd game would be necessary.

That’s very interesting

Did not know that. I’ve been calculating all the different winning percentages to see how it would affect the division race, and had come to the conclusion that if we played NO GAMES, and OM swept 3 from Bama, they would have % of .633 to our .630. That would really suck.

Weather forecast for Tuscaloosa looks no better than Athens for Thursday and Friday. So I thought they might get two on Sat and we might get a total washout. Which would still work for us, as two wins would still keep them behind us even if we didn’t play.

But with an extra day to play, all kinds of scenarios can play out

It’s simple math, and anyone can do it, but these are the possible winning percentages based on weeken results:

``````       ARK.                 OM
``````

0-0. .6269. .5926

1-0. .6429. .6071
0-1. .6071. .5714

2-0. .6551. .6206
1-1. .6206. .5862
0-2. .586. .5517

3-0. .667. .633
2-1. .633. .600
1-2. .600. .5667
0-3. .567. .533

That’s not even considering any of the other SECW teams, which may not be mathematically eliminated

There will be no tie with Ole Miss for the SEC West. Keep in mind that they hold the head-to-head tie breaker with us, so if we go into Saturday’s games 1 game ahead (assuming the first 2 games of both series have been played), the SEC West is still up for grabs.

Let’s hope that Ole Miss and Bama get to play 2 games and Bama takes both games! Hogs get 2 games in and win that would end it. Even if it’s a double header on Sunday! That would stink for sitting up the pitching for Hoover!
Bottom line the hogs should have already put this out of reach and couldn’t get it done early. We will see how it shakes out in just a few days.

There can be a tie, there just cannot be two No. 1 seeds from the West. If Arkansas and Ole Miss tie for the SEC West, both will claim they won the division in their media guides, will buy championship rings, etc.

Also keep in mind that LSU has an unlikely chance at creating a three-way tie atop that division. In that event, Ole Miss would be the top seed from the West.

Well the 3 way tie would really be a bummer. LSU and Ole Miss have the tie breaker on us. Win a game or 2 or total wash out.

Unless we get over our away game jitters, Ole Miss is in the driver seat. They can easily sweep the series with Alabama.

Just have to win one or have LSU lose 1 to eliminate the Tigers. Two wins and an Ole Miss loss gets an outright West championship. I feel comfortable about the first scenario; not so much on the second.

If the Hogs go into the UGA series ready to play, they will win the series. The Hogs are a better team, top to bottom. IMO

I don’t think anyone can easily sweep anyone in the SEC. Alabama is capable of pulling an upset at its home park. It won a series over Kentucky there earlier this season.

Yeah . . . just like first place Arkansas went in and swept last place MSU . . . err . . . :oops:

WHEN will people learn that sweeps are the exception, not the rule - even for very good teams? And it’s not easy to even win road series, much less sweep them.

If you’re a dominant SEC team, you will win about twice as many conference games as you lose. That being the case, in general, your chances of sweeping a given 3 game SEC series is about 30% - less than one in three! Right now, Ole Miss has won 59% of their conference games. Let’s say 60, for round numbers. That would give them, in general, about a 22% chance of sweeping 3 games. Allowing for the fact it’s Alabama, maybe a little greater. But then, factoring in that it’s on the road, perhaps not.

Ole Miss has won one road series this season - two of three over Texas A&M in the second week of conference play. Since then the Rebels were 1-2 at Mississippi State, Vanderbilt and South Carolina - all underdogs in the series.

SEC teams are winning their home games at a .756 rate this year, up from .664 a year ago. Entering this weekend, home teams have won 48 of 63 SEC series. Florida has four of those road series wins. No other team has more than two.

Winning on the road has always been tough in this conference. It has been even tougher this year.

I’m hoping Bama can win tonight!