Ok help me here - FPI

By the FPI (Whatever that is)

Arkansas has a less than 50% chance at beating any of the SEC teams the Razorbacks face this year !

In fact Ark appears to only have a chance to beat Mizzou!?!

Ok can anyone educate me on this FPI

Fool’s Power Index. 'Nuff said. :wink:

I like it!

I wonder how it looked last year at this time?

Consider the sources available to you. Most of these people have never seen a practice. They have recruiting rankings from 2-3 yrs. ago and what the heard says. They are the same folks that pick LSU every year and say we cannot stay on the field with Ole Miss cause they bought a team. You can follow those folks (who I do not even consider) or you can consider the guys like Clay who knows the program inside and out. Sometimes they may have a little Hog Colored glasses, but who is the best for all things Razorback?

http://espn.go.com/college-football/sta … eamratings

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily.


25\tArkansas\t0-0\t6.5 - 5.5 \t0.0 0.5\t 7\t 12.6

I actually think that FPI is among the best - if not the best - computer rankings out there. For example, the FPI’s final ratings (after the Bowls) in 2014 (<LINK_TEXT text=“http://espn.go.com/college-football/sta … 0113040000”>http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/year/2014/key/20150113040000</LINK_TEXT>) had us ranked #17 . . . with a 7-6 record! And last year, we finished at #14 (<LINK_TEXT text=“http://espn.go.com/college-football/sta … 0112040000”>http://espn.go.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings/_/year/2015/key/20160112040000</LINK_TEXT>). Compare that to the various other rankings and tell me who had us pegged more accurately? Not just “highest” - in this case, I think most that really pay attention would agree that Arkansas deserved those rankings based on how they played the last 5-6 games of those respective seasons.

The issue - as is the case with many pre-season rankings, is that when you lose as much offensive firepower as we did (BA, Alex, JWill - though he didn’t play - and 3 OL), the default assumption is that you won’t replace them with people who perform at the same level; at least, not at first. And I believe that in general, that’s a fair and accurate assumption. We were not highly ranked to begin the 2014 season, but our rating grew as the season went on. Last year, we started at #14, dropped down after a lousy September, and then moved back up as we found our stride in November and December. IF we perform, the FPI will reflect it by late in the season. And where you end up is all that matters anyway.

Formulaic systems do not work well without data. They have little predictive data before any games have been played. The formula for preseason prediction is vastly different from the one based on game outcomes.