Odds of in state "fab five" in hoops?

Recruiting Insider Board
#1

Seems like they are increased substantially after last weekend based on the reporting. Maybe 50% we sign all 5?

Davis is in.

KK and Moody see to have had a very positive visit and want to play together.

Jaylin seems like a high probability.

Moore seems like the lowest probability (I keep thinking he will end up at Memphis) but still possible.

If you had told me a month ago we might get 4/5 or 5/5 I would have said that was nearly impossible.

Regardless of outcome, it is really impressive how much ground Muss has made up here in a short time starting from zero

#2

Much better than two-three months ago. Davonte jumping on was huge for Jaylin and Chris.

#3

It is good to see the phrase ’ In state fab 5 ’ gaining traction! This would be the most significant basketball development in the state since Mama Mondelbrew gave birth to those triplets.

#4

Would be awesome

#5

0% we get all five.

#6

what is your prediction baked?

#7

3 maybe 4, but not all five

#8

Davis = commit
Williams = 90% lock
Robinson = 95% lock
Moody = 85% lock
Moore = 40% lock

Williams is a bit like Gafford and Portis in that I don’t think he was not going to be a Hog. Robinson and Moody seem to genuinely want to play with each other. It’s not just lip service.

I think Moore is genuinely interested. He has been to Fayetteville a lot over the past 3 years. I think the hype around Penny and Memphis is real. His family could watch every game in person and they are going to be in ESPN/TV a ton.

#9

Mathematically, that works out to a 29% chance all 5 will ink with the Hogs. Sound about right to you?

#10

Where are you getting your %. One may be waaaaaay off

#11

Jerry Meyer has Crystal Ball for Davis and KK to Arkansas. I have heard him say that means a 80% chance. He hasn’t done a crystal ball prediction for the other 3.

I was hearing Moody would commit to a arkansas during his OV. I hope the fact that he didn’t, is not a negative.

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#12

That 29% probability is true if you assume the events are independent.
There is likely a “bandwagon” effect, in which any positive outcome increases probabilities of related events, while any negative outcome has the opposite effect.

#13

While I would not bet on Arkansas getting all five, I also would never go with zero percent.

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#14

Porcy, understand your point on percentage independence. But since none of the five separate events have yet unfolded, my statement still holds.

Now once those individual events start unfolding, TWO things come into play. 1: With each commit, that individual percentage increases from its original value to 100, thereby increasing the odds all 5 events will be true. 2: As you mentioned, the bandwagon effect could result in a fluctuation of the remaining probabilities; again, changing the overall odds.

#15

Actually, one of the five things did happen. Davis is committed

#16

Which one is way off? I get all my info from here so I don’t know what you’re alluding to.

#17

Seems like there is a general view that chances with Moore are way less than the others

#18

Moore is who I have as my maybe. One of the others is hinting big time AR is #2 in a two man race. People just aren’t paying enough attention to what he’s actually saying.

#19

You care to elaborate or content making vague generalizations as to what others are paying attention to?

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#20

Please share with the group. In the past you kept referring to Williams as a guy you thought was leaving.

I read almost everything you do (I think) and I can’t figure out who you are talking about.

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