Davis = commit
Williams = 90% lock
Robinson = 95% lock
Moody = 85% lock
Moore = 40% lock
Williams is a bit like Gafford and Portis in that I don’t think he was not going to be a Hog. Robinson and Moody seem to genuinely want to play with each other. It’s not just lip service.
I think Moore is genuinely interested. He has been to Fayetteville a lot over the past 3 years. I think the hype around Penny and Memphis is real. His family could watch every game in person and they are going to be in ESPN/TV a ton.
That 29% probability is true if you assume the events are independent.
There is likely a “bandwagon” effect, in which any positive outcome increases probabilities of related events, while any negative outcome has the opposite effect.
Porcy, understand your point on percentage independence. But since none of the five separate events have yet unfolded, my statement still holds.
Now once those individual events start unfolding, TWO things come into play. 1: With each commit, that individual percentage increases from its original value to 100, thereby increasing the odds all 5 events will be true. 2: As you mentioned, the bandwagon effect could result in a fluctuation of the remaining probabilities; again, changing the overall odds.