Next 5 game prediction / live RPI has us 38

With 6 games left I thought 5-1
Wining either at SC or FL. Florida lost their big man last night to a torn ACL. That helps us even more because they will be coming off the Kentucky game and we have a chance. So what the thought and next up Ole Miss and they are playing well

I know the home court really needs to mean something Saturday. Loud and proud at the Palace. Hopefully this will give us a big shot of confidence going down the stretch.

Good point. Hog Nation, your team has an NCAAT bid in their sites and has just played three halves of great basketball on the road at the most important time of the year. They need and deserve your help.

This is what it’s all about. Get hot at the right time. Florida is hurting. Just keep winning.

We are up to 37, but a few games are going on. Missery is beating Bama, not sure how that affects it, but I’m sure Missery winning wouldn’t hurt.

I think, actually, since we split with Misery and beat Bama, a Tide win would benefit our RPI. Maybe not enough to move us up a spot. Of course, if Bama loses we are solo 4th place in the league, only two games behind the Poultry.

I don’t have any clue how RPI works, so it was a just a guess. SC is currently listed at 27 in RPI

Quick and dirty RPI primer (maybe I should do this as separate post and pin it, but this will do for now):

RPI is a glorified strength of schedule measure at its core. It has three components: Winning Percentage, Opponents Winning Percentage, and Opponents’ Opponents Winning Percentage. WP is 25%, OWP is 50%, OOWP is 25% of the formula. But it’s not just a case of, OK, we’re 19-7 so our WP is .731. It’s adjusted by home, road and neutral. Which is why tonight is so important. Not only did we beat a very good team, but we did it on the road. The exact multiplier is not known, but it’s thought to be about 1.4 for a road win or a home loss, 1.0 for neutral site either way, and 0.6 for road loss or home win.

So as an example, say a team is 4-1, having gone 1-1 on the road, 1-0 on neutral floor and 2-0 at home. The adjusted home record is thus about 1.2-0, and the adjusted road record is about 1.4-0.6. So the WP number would be .857 (3.6 out of possible 4.2) instead of the .800 the record alone suggests.

OWP calculates the opponents’ records ignoring their games with you. The reason a Bama win would help us is that they have a better record than Misery, particularly since Misery’s inferior record would be counted twice because we played them twice. Then OOWP calculates all those opponents’ records, including their games against our opponents (which it has to, or conference games could never be used in this calculation). Playing Florida again will mean they’re counted twice in our OWP and OOWP, which will help, and if we lose, it’s only 0.6 into the loss column.