After the win at Rupp. Kentucky dropped from 32 to 41.
Other metrics that the committee is known to use:
BPI: moved from 17th to 16th
Torvik, from 25 to 24
KPI, from 20 to 17
Kenpom, from 27 to 21.
Not out of the woods yet, but another Q1/road win certainly doesn’t hurt.
Fifty weeks ago we took another big NET jump (30 to 23) after beating Tennessee, and wound up a 4 seed. So if we continue to play well we can definitely get out of a bad seed and into a good one.
Swine those #'s don’t look like an 11 seed. Surprised Lunardi had us that low before the win. I know we only had the one Quad 1 win but NET already factors that in and we were 28 (implies 7 seed) are now 24 there, which would imply a 6. Most of those other metrics imply a 5 - 6 as well.
I would agree. Maybe 11 was an eye test thing after struggling against the Chickens, but last night we sure passed the eye test.
Lunardi wasn’t the only bracketologist to knock us down. Brian Bennett at The Athletic had a 10 seed for us. Jerry Palm had us as an 11 going to Dayton for the First Four.
Which reminds me, it’s time to start looking at the Bracket Matrix. Which had us as a 9 yesterday morning, but 3 brackets left us off entirely. Highest seed there was a 7.
We passed every test last night. With flying colors……
One thing out of our control, but that would also help, is if the teams we lost to, which are bad losses (LSU/VANDY), start winning a few more games.
We also need road wins, since we missed our opportunities early. Unfortunately, the remaining road schedule is TAM, BAMA and TN. So huge hill, but huge opportunity.
Our only Q3 loss is LSU. Vandy is Q2. The other losses are Q1. Vandy would have to drop 30 spots in NET to become Q3.
Remaining games: Moo U and Florida at home are Q2, A&M is Q1, Jawja is Q3, Bama and Mustard Empire are obviously Q1, Kentucky at home is Q2. So only remaining chance for a bad loss is Georgia.
Oh, one more metric I missed. Strength of Record is 31. Which is still 8-seed range, so above where the bracketheads have been putting us.
Any loss is a bad loss, especially anything other than a q1 loss, when you’re trying to climb to a 4 seed like last year. A 4 seed is very possible. We are right in line with where KenPom had us the last 2 years. We can afford no more than 2 more losses, though, and they need to be the right ones (if we do lose).
Comparison with last year:
Regular season record was 24-7. We’d have to run the table to match that.
Q1 prior to the tournament: 7-7. We won’t have 14 Q1 games this time. It’s conceivable that Kentucky could get its act together and be Q1 by March, but that’s probably it. Amazingly we only had two Q1 games in the tournament: Gonzaga and Duke, and the same number in the SECT (LSU and TAM). Remember, we’re 2-5 in Q1 now after last night. The best we could do is 5-5 going into the SECT unless Kentucky moves up.
Bad losses last year: Hofstra in NLR was Q3, Vandy at home was Q2. So pretty similar to this year.
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