NCAA tournament factoid

Winning percentage of #1 seeds through two days: .742

Winning percentage for SEC teams: .824 (14-3).

Yes the SEC is doing better than 1 seeds.


I know that you often hear (and the announcing team last night mentioned it more than once) that 91% of the teams that win Regionals win their first game of the Regional. Not that if you win your first game, you will win the Regional 91% of the time (that can’t be, since there are always TWO teams that win their first game). But, the team that DOES win the Regional will have come through the winner’s bracket after Day 1.

I’d wonder what the percentage is for the teams that wins the Saturday’s Winner Bracket game? Assuming those 2 teams are somewhat evenly matches, simple probability would indicate a 75% chance (the chance of winning at least 1 of 2 games against a comparable opponent; i.e., a 50% chance of winning each game you play against them.

However, there are some additional factors that come into play - most particularly, pitching depth and physical exertion/rest. For someone to emerge from the elimination game (played earlier today) and win again tonight, and then again tomorrow puts severe strain on any college pitching staff.

I’m not going to do the research, but I’d guess the odds are something like 80-85% of the time the 2-0 team goes on to win the Regional. But then, we were up 1-0 in the Super last year and we all remember what happened.

I believe I read or heard somewhere that the team that starts the regional 2-0 wins the regional about 70% of the time.

As for being 1-0 in a super regional like we were last year, that’s not the same thing at all as the advantage of being 2-0 in a regional. I’m sure you know that. It’s much easier for a team down 1-0 to win a three-game series.

I would be curious, though, as to the winning percentage in super regionals of teams that start 1-0.

Actually, shortly after I made the post above, the guy announcing our game in the Stillwater Regional said the number was 81%. Have no idea where he got the info, but ESPN’s research in these types of things is usually solid.

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