NCAA stat reviews

RW3 is 16th in the nation in rushing, tied for 33rd in rushing TDs, and 41st in yards per carry.

AA is 24th in passing efficiency, 25th in passing yards, 22nd in yards per completion, tied for 28th in passing TDs.

Toby Baker is 17th in punting after his night off.

Dan Skipper is tied for 4th with 2 blocked kicks.

Team stats:

67th in rushing offense, 44th in passing offense, 50th in total offense, 53rd in scoring offense.

102nd in rush defense, last (again) in yards per carry (but it’s closer), 53rd in pass efficiency defense, 50th in passing yards allowed, 85th in total defense, 84th in scoring defense.

Net punting: 12th.

Penalty yards: 46th.

Strength of schedule (per Sagarin): 9th.

… but with all these high numbers, we can still win nine games.

True on the nine wins, makes you wonder what it would be with a middle of the road SEC defense?

Probably not hugely different, actually, possibly no difference at all, because we got hammered in all four of our losses. A&M gained 591 on us. Bama gained only 473 but got two defensive scores. Auburn gained 632. LSU got 547. Knock all of those down to 450, it would reduce our total defense by 40 yards a game, which would put us in midpack of the SEC in total defense – and we’d still be 7-4.

Here’s the SEC total defense rankings:
Bama 252 ypg
Florida 282
LSU 308
Georgia 322
Auburn 334
South Carolina 387
Vandy 401
A&M 428
Kentucky 428.5
Arkansas 431
Tennessee 446
OM 451
Moo U 455
Misery 477

Subtract those 40 yards per game and we’re 7th, right behind SoCar.

I suspect using scoring defense as the yardstick would have a similar result, again because our closest loss was 17 to A&M. Take off 14 points off each loss, our points per game would go down by 5, and we’d still be 7-4. We’d also be 9th in SEC scoring defense. (Scoring defense is a bad indicator, though, because it’s inflated by pick-6s and kick returns; we’ve given up three defensive TDs, worth two points a game).

Lots of things factor in to total defense.
Field position- we rarely kick it into the end zone, giving our opponent a short field. Ipso facto, less yards needed to score
Time of possession- considering our offense, the opponent has the ball less, leading to less of a chance to gain yardage.

Yards per play and %of possessions that end in scores are better barometers IMO. I bet we are near last in those stats.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/current/team/705
Arkansas is 3rd in the country in time of possession. Our defense has been on the field less than every team in the country except Wisconsin and New Mexico.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/ … eam/463/p2
We are 67th in the country in yards allowed per kick return.

http://www.ncaa.com/stats/football/fbs/ … eam/701/p3
We are 109th in 3rd Down conversion defense. We are allowing 45% of 3rd Downs to be converted against our defense.

Kind of puts that Total Defense stat in perspective.

Here is the real winner:
https://www.teamrankings.com/college-fo … s-per-play

Arkansas is 110th in Opponents point per play!

Wow, that’s sort of the Granddaddy of them all.

Ipso is NOT facto there, dude. There is actually a relevant stat here, “Net kickoffs”. Net kickoffs are calculated from where the other team gets the ball when you kick off. If you kick it out of the end zone, but the ball comes back to the 25 on a touchback, your net yardage is 40. They do not credit the kickoff man with a 75-yard kick in that case; the credit is 65 (such as MSU’s opening kickoff last night; the play by play says “Brad Wall kickoff 65 yards to the AR0, touchback.”) If you kick off to the 5, and the return comes back to the 21, your net yardage is 44.

What is our average net kickoff for the season? 40.8. Meaning the average start after one of our kickoffs is BETTER than a touchback.

Percentage of possessions that end in scores? That would be difficult to calculate without going through every play by play. But let’s try:

  • We’ve given up 39 touchdowns, but three of those were defensive returns. So 36 offensive touchdowns allowed.
  • Nine opponents’ field goals. So 45 scoring possessions by opponents.
  • Five missed field goals
  • 18 turnovers forced (9 INT, 9 fumbles recovered)
  • 46 punts.
  • Four fourth-down stops
    There were probably a few possessions that ended in other ways, such as the end of the first half or the end of the game, but we’ll ignore those.
    So we have 45 series that ended in points, and 73 that didn’t. So 61.9% of the time we did not allow a score; 38.1% we gave up points.

I’ll pick a couple of SEC teams for a similar comparison, starting with the school closest to us in points allowed, Kentucky.

  • Touchdowns allowed, 38 (42 minus four on returns)
  • Field goals allowed, 14. 52 scoring drives
  • Six missed field goals
  • 17 turnovers forced (10 INT, 7 fumbles)
  • 54 punts, and 6 fourth down stops. Total of 83 non scoring drives. About 38.5% scoring drives. Virtually unchanged from ours. Which makes sense; they’ve given up 5 points less than we have for the season. Their time of possession is 29:11, compared to our nearly 35 minutes (third in the nation).

Let’s look at Mizzou, the worst defense in terms of yards.

  • 42 offensive touchdowns allowed (46 minus 4 on returns)
  • 11 field goals. 53 scoring drives
  • 18 turnovers (13 INTs, 5 fumbles)
  • 9 missed field goals
  • 64 punts. 5 fourth down stops. 96 nonscoring drives.
    Actually a little better, with 35.5% scoring drives; they’ve forced more punts. But they’re also horrible in time of possession, only 24+ minutes per game, thus more possessions for both teams.

And we still have a good chance at 9 wins and 4-4 in the toughest league in America and we punked the SECe champs. Pretty amazing.

I guess that’s why they call it a scoreboard and not a yard board

Adding Moo U, which is the worst scoring defense in the conference:

58 scoring drives allowed
7 missed FGs, 52 punts, 19 turnovers, 4 fourth down stops – 82 drives with no points

Result: 41.4% scoring drives, so 58.6% without points. Worse than us, or Mizzou, or Kentucky.