This one is over in all likelihood so that will make MSU 18-9 so we only have a 1 game lead thanks to yesterday.
MSU is at home next week against SC and if they sweep them to give them 21 wins so we would have to win 2 to tie them but we have tie breaker and would win the division…we had a chance to make this easy but it is what it is now we got to go TCB next week. you never know in baseball but that’s the way it is trending.
Yep. Yesterday will end up as a big loss. Our 1 game lead over MSU is likely to disappear. It’s unlikely we sweep A&M, but likely MSU sweeps SC. Maybe we can win at least two down there & at least get the tie.
I doubt it hurts us too much as far as national seeding goes, but we could have been a 3-4 seed. Now, a 6 seed is perhaps our best hope. If we split 1-2 at A&M, we could fall back to 7-8. I doubt we fall out completely because it’s unlikely none of those teams ahead of us will win out, but still, a sweep would have given us some cushion. Now we don’t have much room for another loss.
It was such a frustrating loss. Could have won that game so many ways
Chip, come on. Yesterday is not going to knock us down from a 3 to a 6. That’s ridiculous. It’s a 1-run loss to a nationally ranked team. We were a 5 seed last year, didn’t win the West and didn’t win 39 games in the regular season.
I think the hogs are fine! There’s no reason to panic. It’s one game. It would have been nice to sweep LSU but it’s not the end of the world. Texas A&M will be a good series and I expect the hogs to simply out hit the Aggies. Their pitching isn’t as dominate without their ace that will be suspended. It would be nice to just win the series. Miss St will be playing a team fighting to make it to Hoover but they are at home. S Carolina could win 1 game in that series.
I hope you’re right. Not sure the margin of the loss is part of the RPI calculation. If it is, obviously a 1 run loss isn’t as bad a 6 run loss, but I doubt they use margin.
However, it’s not that one loss might drop us to 6th. In fact, it already did. That’s where we were when I checked yesterday. It’s possible someone ahead us has lost since then & we moved back up, but when I wrote that, we were at 6. If we sweep A&M, I have no doubt we move up. If we split 2-1, we probably move back up if MSU loses 1 to SC. I doubt we pass either Vandy or UCLA. I don’t know about the others ahead of us. Don’t know who they play or how they’ll do against them.
Yes, I know how we finished last year, but we’re not the only variable in where we end up. What other teams do matter, too. There are years when 20 or 21 wins would win the SEC. This year we could win 22 & finish second.
It dropped us to 6 in RPI. Which does not mean that we’ll be the 6 seed. They’re not entirely unrelated, but no direct cause and effect. No one is projecting ECU as a top 5 seed even though their RPI is there.
Well that’s probably true, but I have no idea what all the committee will use to determine seeds. Right now I’m simply using the RPI because I don’t have any better way of guessing what our seed might be. I’d like to think we’d be higher than MSU given our sweep over them, our higher spot (for the time being anyway) in the SEC, and our overall record, but we might not be. UGA is ahead of us, too. There’s a good chance we’ll face one of those in the SECT. I have no idea what, if any, our performance in the SECT will have on our seeding. My guess is that it will have none or almost none.
I feel pretty confident in saying that the ONLY way we’ll not be a national seed (top 8) is if we get swept by A&M and then wash out of the SEC Tournament quickly. Otherwise, we’re a lock.
Sure, you’d rather be the top seed than #8, but there’s a much, much bigger difference between number 8 and 9 than there is 1 and 8 (assuming form holds).
I think it’s going to be a fiercely contested series, but i see us winning 1 or 2 games in College Station, which will put all of this National Seed business to rest.
As I (and others) have stated before, RPI is not the ONLY thing the committee looks at, but it is a very big factor and highly correlated with the seeding process. Still, there are other factors, and (a) winning the SEC West - without a doubt THE most difficult division, top to bottom, in the country - carries a lot of weight. So does our record against Q1 teams and our overall SOS (Top 10).
We’re fine unless we totally tank. And even if we were to do so, we’d still host the first round for sure.