Lunardi update

Hogs jumped from an 11 seed to an 8 seed by winning last night. Jellycats are now Last Four In, and A&M is now the Last Team In.

Need to get off that 8-9 line


True, but needed to get off that bubble line first.

Interesting that Auburn and Misery are shown as 9 seeds but are ranked just above us on that 1-68 list.

I feel pretty good about us creeping up to a 5 or 6 seed with the way we’re playing now. If we can hold serve at home & pick up another road win or two, I see us doing that. We’ve probably already cost ourselves anything as good as a 4-seed, but I don’t completely rule that out. After all, we still have to play at TN, AL, & A&M. If we’re playing as well as we did at the first of the season & have Smith back, I could see us winning 2 of those 3. Still have Mistake, Fl, & UGA at home. We should win all 3 of those.

1 Like

Our NET rating after the first Tennessee game last year, which was about 10 days later than last night’s Kentucky game, was very close to our current NET of 24, yet we still managed a 4 seed.

We only had four regular season games left at that time, one of which was the loss in the rematch in Knoxville, but another was the win over Kentucky at BWA. Seven games left now, which of course means seven chances to move up but also seven chances to move down. But pick up a win or two in the Q1 list of TAM/Bama/Tennessee, and hold serve in the rest, and a 4 or so is quite doable.

I found the NCAA Nitty Gritty page, which supposedly summarizes info that will be given to the committee in March, and bookmarked it. It includes the following info for us, and links to a page with complete team and individual stats for us (and pages for everybody else).

Our average opponent NET ranking, which is a proxy for strength of schedule, I suppose, is ranked #20. Opponent NET raw average is #107. We’re 6-5 in conference, 11-2 NC, 2-5 on the road, our NET SOS is 51, net NC SOS is #106 (Louisville sucking really hurts here), 2-5 against Q1, 4-1 against Q2 (that’s Vandy), 6-1 against Q3 (LSU) and 5-0 against Q4 (Louisville remains the worst team on our schedule and will stay there).

If any of you want to follow this, the Nitty Gritty is here:

You can also do comparisons of two or more teams through this page.


hope you’re right. Of course, we both know it’s not just how well we do, it’s also about how well those above us do. Regardless, it’s amazing how Muss seems to get us playing really good basketball by the time Feb gets here after having some really disappointing Januarys.

Beating A&M in College Station should do that.

1 Like

If we were somehow to run the table, I wouldn’t rule out a 3 seed at this point or even a 2. Remember we got a 3 in '21. Our NET on February 8, 2021, was #28, exactly where we were yesterday (we won at Kentucky on Feb. 9 that year, when Kentucky sucked). By Selection Sunday it was #14 and we got that 3 seed, having run the table in the regular season until losing to LSU in the SECT. Two of those games in that streak were wins over top 10 teams (at Misery, Bama at BWA), and our NET was #13 before losing to LSU in the tourney.

1 Like

ESPN Bubble Watch bumped us from “Work to Do” to “Should Be In” after last night.

1 Like

It’s way better to be a 10/11/12 seed than 8/9. 8/9 means you have to beat a #1 seed to make the Sweet 16 ---- not good. 8/9 is almost a guarantee not to get past the 2nd round. And that’s been our history with these 8/9 seeds.

Yep, but it’s better to be a 5-6-7 than a 10-11-12.

1 Like

If we stay an 8 (which I don’t think we will…I think we are “The Jeffersons”), I hope we play Purdue.
I think we can beat them like we did Gonzaga last year.

Amen to that ! Give us a 5/6/7 or 10/11/12 but not an 8/9 !

I am hopeful the team we have seen of late is on the way to a 5 seed. :crossed_fingers:t2:

1 Like

For several years the 12 seed has advanced to the second round as often as the 5 seed. (Seems like its been 2-2 for a while.) I’m not sure why that is, but theoretically there’s still a pretty big discrepancy between a 5 & 12, but 12’s pull a bunch of upsets. (I’m sure some ambitious sort will actually research the record, but I’m not that ambitious or curious.)

I’m not so sure that’s good news that 8-9 matchup is a freaking nightmare

Where are you, Swine?

This topic was automatically closed after 30 days. New replies are no longer allowed.